Uncertainty
Fast and Robust Shortest Paths on Manifolds Learned from Data
Arvanitidis, Georgios, Hauberg, Sรธren, Hennig, Philipp, Schober, Michael
We propose a fast, simple and robust algorithm for computing shortest paths and distances on Riemannian manifolds learned from data. This amounts to solving a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) subject to boundary conditions. Here standard solvers perform poorly because they require well-behaved Jacobians of the ODE, and usually, manifolds learned from data imply unstable and ill-conditioned Jacobians. Instead, we propose a fixed-point iteration scheme for solving the ODE that avoids Jacobians. This enhances the stability of the solver, while reduces the computational cost. In experiments involving both Riemannian metric learning and deep generative models we demonstrate significant improvements in speed and stability over both general-purpose state-of-the-art solvers as well as over specialized solvers.
10 Major Machine Learning Algorithms And Their Application
Algorithms are the smart and powerful soldier of a complex machine learning model. In other words, machine learning algorithms are the core foundation when we play with data or when it's come to training the model. In this article, you and I are going on a tour called "7 major machine learning algorithms and their application " The purpose of this tour is to either brush up the mind or to gain an essential understanding of machine learning algorithm. We will find the major answer in this tour like for what purpose machine learning algorithms works, where to use them, when to use them and how to use them. Before getting deeper let's have a brief introduction. Machine learning algorithms are mainly classified into 3 broad categories i.e supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. In supervised learning machine learning algorithms, the machine is taught by example. Here the operator provides the machine learning algorithm with the dataset. This dataset includes desired inputs and outputs variables. By the use of these set of variables, we generate a function that map inputs to desired outputs.
Calibration with Bias-Corrected Temperature Scaling Improves Domain Adaptation Under Label Shift in Modern Neural Networks
Shrikumar, Avanti, Kundaje, Anshul
Label shift refers to the phenomenon where the marginal probability p(y) of observing a particular class changes between the training and test distributions while the conditional probability p(x|y) stays fixed. This is relevant in settings such as medical diagnosis, where a classifier trained to predict disease based on observed symptoms may need to be adapted to a different distribution where the baseline frequency of the disease is higher. Given calibrated estimates of p(y|x), one can apply an EM algorithm to correct for the shift in class imbalance between the training and test distributions without ever needing to calculate p(x|y). Unfortunately, modern neural networks typically fail to produce well-calibrated probabilities, compromising the effectiveness of this approach. Although Temperature Scaling can greatly reduce miscalibration in these networks, it can leave behind a systematic bias in the probabilities that still poses a problem. To address this, we extend Temperature Scaling with class-specific bias parameters, which largely eliminates systematic bias in the calibrated probabilities and allows for effective domain adaptation under label shift. We term our calibration approach "Bias-Corrected Temperature Scaling". On experiments with CIFAR10, we find that EM with Bias-Corrected Temperature Scaling significantly outperforms both EM with Temperature Scaling and the recently-proposed Black-Box Shift Estimation.
Fitting A Mixture Distribution to Data: Tutorial
Ghojogh, Benyamin, Ghojogh, Aydin, Crowley, Mark, Karray, Fakhri
This paper is a step-by-step tutorial for fitting a mixture distribution to data. It merely assumes the reader has the background of calculus and linear algebra. Other required background is briefly reviewed before explaining the main algorithm. In explaining the main algorithm, first, fitting a mixture of two distributions is detailed and examples of fitting two Gaussians and Poissons, respectively for continuous and discrete cases, are introduced. Thereafter, fitting several distributions in general case is explained and examples of several Gaussians (Gaussian Mixture Model) and Poissons are again provided. Model-based clustering, as one of the applications of mixture distributions, is also introduced. Numerical simulations are also provided for both Gaussian and Poisson examples for the sake of better clarification.
An intuitive guide to Gaussian processes โ Towards Data Science
Machine learning is using data we have (known as training data) to learn a function that we can use to make predictions about data we don't have yet. The simplest example of this is linear regression, where we learn the slope and intercept of a line so we can predict the vertical position of points from their horizontal position. This is shown below, the training data are the blue points and the learnt function is the red line. Machine learning is an extension of linear regression in a few ways. Secondly, modern ML uses much more powerful methods for extracting patterns of which deep learning is only one of many.
A combined entropy and utility based generative model for large scale multiple discrete-continuous travel behaviour data
Generative models, either by simple clustering algorithms or deep neural network architecture, have been developed as a probabilistic estimation method for dimension reduction or to model the underlying properties of data structures. Although their apparent use has largely been limited to image recognition and classification, generative machine learning algorithms can be a powerful tool for travel behaviour research. In this paper, we examine the generative machine learning approach for analyzing multiple discrete-continuous (MDC) travel behaviour data to understand the underlying heterogeneity and correlation, increasing the representational power of such travel behaviour models. We show that generative models are conceptually similar to choice selection behaviour process through information entropy and variational Bayesian inference. Specifically, we consider a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) based algorithm with multiple discrete-continuous layer, formulated as a variational Bayesian inference optimization problem. We systematically describe the proposed machine learning algorithm and develop a process of analyzing travel behaviour data from a generative learning perspective. We show parameter stability from model analysis and simulation tests on an open dataset with multiple discrete-continuous dimensions and a size of 293,330 observations. For interpretability, we derive analytical methods for conditional probabilities as well as elasticities. Our results indicate that latent variables in generative models can accurately represent joint distribution consistently w.r.t multiple discrete-continuous variables. Lastly, we show that our model can generate statistically similar data distributions for travel forecasting and prediction.
Optimized Realization of Bayesian Networks in Reduced Normal Form using Latent Variable Model
Di Gennaro, Giovanni, Buonanno, Amedeo, Palmieri, Francesco A. N.
Bayesian networks in their Factor Graph Reduced Normal Form (FGrn) are a powerful paradigm for implementing inference graphs. Unfortunately, the computational and memory costs of these networks may be considerable, even for relatively small networks, and this is one of the main reasons why these structures have often been underused in practice. In this work, through a detailed algorithmic and structural analysis, various solutions for cost reduction are proposed. An online version of the classic batch learning algorithm is also analyzed, showing very similar results (in an unsupervised context); which is essential even if multilevel structures are to be built. The solutions proposed, together with the possible online learning algorithm, are included in a C++ library that is quite efficient, especially if compared to the direct use of the well-known sum-product and Maximum Likelihood (ML) algorithms. The results are discussed with particular reference to a Latent Variable Model (LVM) structure.
Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) Industry
Germany Market Analysis Table 35: German Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Artificial Intelligence Analyzed with Annual Revenue Figures in US$ Million for Years 2015 through 2024 (includes corresponding Graph/Chart) 9.4.3 Italy Market Analysis Table 36: Italian Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Artificial Intelligence Analyzed with Annual Revenue Figures in US$ Million for Years 2015 through 2024 (includes corresponding Graph/Chart) 9.4.4
Global Artificial Intelligence (AI) Industry
Germany Market Analysis Table 35: German Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Artificial Intelligence Analyzed with Annual Revenue Figures in US$ Million for Years 2015 through 2024 (includes corresponding Graph/Chart) 9.4.3 Italy Market Analysis Table 36: Italian Recent Past, Current & Future Analysis for Artificial Intelligence Analyzed with Annual Revenue Figures in US$ Million for Years 2015 through 2024 (includes corresponding Graph/Chart) 9.4.4
Applying SVGD to Bayesian Neural Networks for Cyclical Time-Series Prediction and Inference
Hu, Xinyu, Szerlip, Paul, Karaletsos, Theofanis, Singh, Rohit
A regression-based BNN model is proposed to predict spatiotemporal quantities like hourly rider demand with calibrated uncertainties. The main contributions of this paper are (i) A feed-forward deterministic neural network (DetNN) architecture that predicts cyclical time series data with sensitivity to anomalous forecasting events; (ii) A Bayesian framework applying SVGD to train large neural networks for such tasks, capable of producing time series predictions as well as measures of uncertainty surrounding the predictions. Experiments show that the proposed BNN reduces average estimation error by 10% across 8 U.S. cities compared to a fine-tuned multilayer perceptron (MLP), and 4% better than the same network architecture trained without SVGD.