In unsupervised domain adaptation, it is widely known that the target domain error can be provably reduced by having a shared input representation that makes the source and target domains indistinguishable from each other. Very recently it has been studied that not just matching the marginal input distributions, but the alignment of output (class) distributions is also critical. The latter can be achieved by minimizing the maximum discrepancy of predictors (classifiers). In this paper, we adopt this principle, but propose a more systematic and effective way to achieve hypothesis consistency via Gaussian processes (GP). The GP allows us to define/induce a hypothesis space of the classifiers from the posterior distribution of the latent random functions, turning the learning into a simple large-margin posterior separation problem, far easier to solve than previous approaches based on adversarial minimax optimization. We formulate a learning objective that effectively pushes the posterior to minimize the maximum discrepancy. This is further shown to be equivalent to maximizing margins and minimizing uncertainty of the class predictions in the target domain, a well-established principle in classical (semi-)supervised learning. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach is comparable or superior to the existing methods on several benchmark domain adaptation datasets.

Stochastic differential equations are an important modeling class in many disciplines. Consequently, there exist many methods relying on various discretization and numerical integration schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel, probabilistic model for estimating the drift and diffusion given noisy observations of the underlying stochastic system. Using state-of-the-art adversarial and moment matching inference techniques, we circumvent the use of the discretization schemes as seen in classical approaches. This yields significant improvements in parameter estimation accuracy and robustness given random initial guesses. On four commonly used benchmark systems, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithms compared to state-of-the-art solutions based on extended Kalman filtering and Gaussian processes.

We present a new approach for predicting program properties from large codebases (aka "Big Code"). Our approach learns a probabilistic model from "Big Code" and uses this model to predict properties of new, unseen programs. The key idea of our work is to transform the program into a representation that allows us to formulate the problem of inferring program properties as structured prediction in machine learning. This enables us to leverage powerful probabilistic models such as Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) and perform joint prediction of program properties. As an example of our approach, we built a scalable prediction engine called JSNICE for solving two kinds of tasks in the context of JavaScript: predicting (syntactic) names of identifiers and predicting (semantic) type annotations of variables. Experimentally, JSNICE predicts correct names for 63% of name identifiers and its type annotation predictions are correct in 81% of cases. Since its public release at http://jsnice.org, JSNice has become a popular system with hundreds of thousands of uses. By formulating the problem of inferring program properties as structured prediction, our work opens up the possibility for a range of new "Big Code" applications such as de-obfuscators, decompilers, invariant generators, and others. Recent years have seen significant progress in the area of programming languages driven by advances in type systems, constraint solving, program analysis, and synthesis techniques. Fundamentally, these methods reason about each program in isolation and while powerful, the effectiveness of programming tools based on these techniques is approaching its inherent limits. Thus, a more disruptive change is needed if a significant improvement is to take place. At the same time, creating probabilistic models from large datasets (also called "Big Data") has transformed a number of areas such as natural language processing, computer vision, recommendation systems, and many others. However, despite the overwhelming success of "Big Data" in a variety of application domains, learning from large datasets of programs has previously not had tangible impact on programming tools. Yet, with the tremendous growth of publicly available source code in repositories such as GitHub4 and BitBucket2 (referred to as "Big Code" by a recent DARPA initiative11) comes the opportunity to create new kinds of programming tools based on probabilistic models of such data.

The dramatic success in machine learning has led to an explosion of artificial intelligence (AI) applications and increasing expectations for autonomous systems that exhibit human-level intelligence. These expectations have, however, met with fundamental obstacles that cut across many application areas. One such obstacle is adaptability, or robustness. Machine learning researchers have noted current systems lack the ability to recognize or react to new circumstances they have not been specifically programmed or trained for. Intensive theoretical and experimental efforts toward "transfer learning," "domain adaptation," and "lifelong learning"4 are reflective of this obstacle. Another obstacle is "explainability," or that "machine learning models remain mostly black boxes"26 unable to explain the reasons behind their predictions or recommendations, thus eroding users' trust and impeding diagnosis and repair; see Hutson8 and Marcus.11 A third obstacle concerns the lack of understanding of cause-effect connections.

The slides are available here: http://www.cs.ubc.ca/

This article reviews the applications of Bayesian Networks to Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles (IAV) from the decision making point of view, which represents the final step for fully Autonomous Vehicles (currently under discussion). Until now, when it comes making high level decisions for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), humans have the last word. Based on the works cited in this article and analysis done here, the modules of a general decision making framework and its variables are inferred. Many efforts have been made in the labs showing Bayesian Networks as a promising computer model for decision making. Further research should go into the direction of testing Bayesian Network models in real situations. In addition to the applications, Bayesian Network fundamentals are introduced as elements to consider when developing IAVs with the potential of making high level judgement calls.

We present a Bayesian hierarchical multi-view mixture model termed Symphony that simultaneously learns clusters of cells representing cell types and their underlying gene regulatory networks by integrating data from two views: single-cell gene expression data and paired epigenetic data, which is informative of gene-gene interactions. This model improves interpretation of clusters as cell types with similar expression patterns as well as regulatory networks driving expression, by explaining gene-gene covariances with the biological machinery regulating gene expression. We show the theoretical advantages of the multi-view learning approach and present a Variational EM inference procedure. We demonstrate superior performance on both synthetic data and real genomic data with subtypes of peripheral blood cells compared to other methods.

Developing knowledge-driven contemporaneous health index (CHI) that can precisely reflect the underlying patient across the course of the condition's progression holds a unique value, like facilitating a range of clinical decision-making opportunities. This is particularly important for monitoring degenerative condition such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), where the condition of the patient will decay over time. Detecting early symptoms and progression sign, and continuous severity evaluation, are all essential for disease management. While a few methods have been developed in the literature, uncertainty quantification of those health index models has been largely neglected. To ensure the continuity of the care, we should be more explicit about the level of confidence in model outputs. Ideally, decision-makers should be provided with recommendations that are robust in the face of substantial uncertainty about future outcomes. In this paper, we aim at filling this gap by developing an uncertainty quantification based contemporaneous longitudinal index, named UQ-CHI, with a particular focus on continuous patient monitoring of degenerative conditions. Our method is to combine convex optimization and Bayesian learning using the maximum entropy learning (MEL) framework, integrating uncertainty on labels as well. Our methodology also provides closed-form solutions in some important decision making tasks, e.g., such as predicting the label of a new sample. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose UQ-CHI method in prediction accuracy, monitoring efficacy, and unique advantages if uncertainty quantification is enabled practice.

We propose a new class of probabilistic neural-symbolic models, that have symbolic functional programs as a latent, stochastic variable. Instantiated in the context of visual question answering, our probabilistic formulation offers two key conceptual advantages over prior neural-symbolic models for VQA. Firstly, the programs generated by our model are more understandable while requiring lesser number of teaching examples. Secondly, we show that one can pose counterfactual scenarios to the model, to probe its beliefs on the programs that could lead to a specified answer given an image. Our results on the CLEVR and SHAPES datasets verify our hypotheses, showing that the model gets better program (and answer) prediction accuracy even in the low data regime, and allows one to probe the coherence and consistency of reasoning performed.

Robust MDPs (RMDPs) can be used to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning. The quality and robustness of an RMDP solution are determined by the ambiguity set---the set of plausible transition probabilities---which is usually constructed as a multi-dimensional confidence region. Existing methods construct ambiguity sets as confidence regions using concentration inequalities which leads to overly conservative solutions. This paper proposes a new paradigm that can achieve better solutions with the same robustness guarantees without using confidence regions as ambiguity sets. To incorporate prior knowledge, our algorithms optimize the size and position of ambiguity sets using Bayesian inference. Our theoretical analysis shows the safety of the proposed method, and the empirical results demonstrate its practical promise.