Uncertainty
CFM-BD: a distributed rule induction algorithm for building Compact Fuzzy Models in Big Data classification problems
Elkano, Mikel, Sanz, Jose, Barrenechea, Edurne, Bustince, Humberto, Galar, Mikel
Interpretability has always been a major concern for fuzzy rule-based classifiers. The usage of human-readable models allows them to explain the reasoning behind their predictions and decisions. However, when it comes to Big Data classification problems, fuzzy rule-based classifiers have not been able to maintain the good trade-off between accuracy and interpretability that has characterized these techniques in non-Big Data environments. The most accurate methods build too complex models composed of a large number of rules and fuzzy sets, while those approaches focusing on interpretability do not provide state-of-the-art discrimination capabilities. In this paper, we propose a new distributed learning algorithm named CFM-BD to construct accurate and compact fuzzy rule-based classification systems for Big Data. This method has been specifically designed from scratch for Big Data problems and does not adapt or extend any existing algorithm. The proposed learning process consists of three stages: 1) pre-processing based on the probability integral transform theorem; 2) rule induction inspired by CHI-BD and Apriori algorithms; 3) rule selection by means of a global evolutionary optimization. We conducted a complete empirical study to test the performance of our approach in terms of accuracy, complexity, and runtime. The results obtained were compared and contrasted with four state-of-the-art fuzzy classifiers for Big Data (FBDT, FMDT, Chi-Spark-RS, and CHI-BD). According to this study, CFM-BD is able to provide competitive discrimination capabilities using significantly simpler models composed of a few rules of less than 3 antecedents, employing 5 linguistic labels for all variables.
Beyond the Self: Using Grounded Affordances to Interpret and Describe Others' Actions
Saponaro, Giovanni, Jamone, Lorenzo, Bernardino, Alexandre, Salvi, Giampiero
We propose a developmental approach that allows a robot to interpret and describe the actions of human agents by reusing previous experience. The robot first learns the association between words and object affordances by manipulating the objects in its environment. It then uses this information to learn a mapping between its own actions and those performed by a human in a shared environment. It finally fuses the information from these two models to interpret and describe human actions in light of its own experience. In our experiments, we show that the model can be used flexibly to do inference on different aspects of the scene. We can predict the effects of an action on the basis of object properties. We can revise the belief that a certain action occurred, given the observed effects of the human action. In an early action recognition fashion, we can anticipate the effects when the action has only been partially observed. By estimating the probability of words given the evidence and feeding them into a pre-defined grammar, we can generate relevant descriptions of the scene. We believe that this is a step towards providing robots with the fundamental skills to engage in social collaboration with humans.
Harmonizing Maximum Likelihood with GANs for Multimodal Conditional Generation
Lee, Soochan, Ha, Junsoo, Kim, Gunhee
Recent advances in conditional image generation tasks, such as image-to-image translation and image inpainting, are largely accounted to the success of conditional GAN models, which are often optimized by the joint use of the GAN loss with the reconstruction loss However, we reveal that this training recipe shared by almost all existing methods causes one critical side effect: lack of diversity in output samples. In order to accomplish both training stability and multimodal output generation, we propose novel training schemes with a new set of losses named moment reconstruction losses that simply replace the reconstruction loss. We show that our approach is applicable to any conditional generation tasks by performing thorough experiments on image-to-image translation, super-resolution and image inpainting using Cityscapes and CelebA dataset. Quantitative evaluations also confirm that our methods achieve a great diversity in outputs while retaining or even improving the visual fidelity of generated samples. Recently, active research has led to a huge progress on conditional image generation, whose typical tasks include image-to-image translation (Isola et al. (2017)), image inpainting (Pathak et al. (2016)), super-resolution (Ledig et al. (2017)) and video prediction (Mathieu et al. (2016)). At the core of such advances is the success of conditional GANs (Mirza & Osindero (2014)), which improve GANs by allowing the generator to take an additional code or condition to control the modes of the data being generated. However, training GANs, including conditional GANs, is highly unstable and easy to collapse (Goodfellow et al. (2014)). Indeed, using these two types of losses is synergetic in that the GAN loss complements the weakness of the reconstruction loss that output samples are blurry and lack high-frequency structure, while the reconstruction loss offers the training stability required for convergence. In spite of its success, we argue that it causes one critical side effect; the reconstruction loss aggravates the mode collapse, one of notorious problems of GANs. In conditional generation tasks, which are to intrinsically learn one-to-many mappings, the model is expected to generate diverse outputs from a single conditional input, depending on some stochastic variables (e.g.
Deep Bayesian Multi-Target Learning for Recommender Systems
Wang, Qi, Ji, Zhihui, Liu, Huasheng, Zhao, Binqiang
With the increasing variety of services that e-commerce platforms provide, criteria for evaluating their success become also increasingly multi-targeting. This work introduces a multi-target optimization framework with Bayesian modeling of the target events, called Deep Bayesian Multi-Target Learning (DBMTL). In this framework, target events are modeled as forming a Bayesian network, in which directed links are parameterized by hidden layers, and learned from training samples. The structure of Bayesian network is determined by model selection. We applied the framework to Taobao live-streaming recommendation, to simultaneously optimize (and strike a balance) on targets including click-through rate, user stay time in live room, purchasing behaviors and interactions. Significant improvement has been observed for the proposed method over other MTL frameworks and the non-MTL model. Our practice shows that with an integrated causality structure, we can effectively make the learning of a target benefit from other targets, creating significant synergy effects that improve all targets. The neural network construction guided by DBMTL fits in with the general probabilistic model connecting features and multiple targets, taking weaker assumption than the other methods discussed in this paper. This theoretical generality brings about practical generalization power over various targets distributions, including sparse targets and continuous-value ones.
Embedded Agency
Demski, Abram, Garrabrant, Scott
Traditional models of rational action treat the agent as though it is cleanly separated from its environment, and can act on that environment from the outside. Such agents have a known functional relationship with their environment, can model their environment in every detail, and do not need to reason about themselves or their internal parts. We provide an informal survey of obstacles to formalizing good reasoning for agents embedded in their environment. Such agents must optimize an environment that is not of type ``function''; they must rely on models that fit within the modeled environment; and they must reason about themselves as just another physical system, made of parts that can be modified and that can work at cross purposes.
Capuchin: Causal Database Repair for Algorithmic Fairness
Salimi, Babak, Rodriguez, Luke, Howe, Bill, Suciu, Dan
Fairness is increasingly recognized as a critical component of machine learning systems. However, it is the underlying data on which these systems are trained that often reflect discrimination, suggesting a database repair problem. Existing treatments of fairness rely on statistical correlations that can be fooled by statistical anomalies, such as Simpson's paradox. Proposals for causality-based definitions of fairness can correctly model some of these situations, but they require specification of the underlying causal models. In this paper, we formalize the situation as a database repair problem, proving sufficient conditions for fair classifiers in terms of admissible variables as opposed to a complete causal model. We show that these conditions correctly capture subtle fairness violations. We then use these conditions as the basis for database repair algorithms that provide provable fairness guarantees about classifiers trained on their training labels. We evaluate our algorithms on real data, demonstrating improvement over the state of the art on multiple fairness metrics proposed in the literature while retaining high utility.
Acceleration of expensive computations in Bayesian statistics using vector operations
Warne, David J., Sisson, Scott A., Drovandi, Christopher
Many applications in Bayesian statistics are extremely computationally intensive. However, they are also often inherently parallel, making them prime targets for modern massively parallel central processing unit (CPU) architectures. While the use of multi-core and distributed computing is widely applied in the Bayesian community, very little attention has been given to fine-grain parallelisation using single instruction multiple data (SIMD) operations that are available on most modern commodity CPUs. Rather, most fine-grain tuning in the literature has centred around general purpose graphics processing units (GPGPUs). Since the effective utilisation of GPGPUs typically requires specialised programming languages, such technologies are not ideal for the wider Bayesian community. In this work, we practically demonstrate, using standard programming libraries, the utility of the SIMD approach for several topical Bayesian applications. In particular, we consider sampling of the prior predictive distribution for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and the computation of Bayesian $p$-values for testing prior weak informativeness. Through minor code alterations, we show that SIMD operations can improve the floating point arithmetic performance resulting in up to $6\times$ improvement in the overall serial algorithm performance. Furthermore $4$-way parallel versions can lead to almost $19\times$ improvement over a na\"{i}ve serial implementation. We illustrate the potential of SIMD operations for accelerating Bayesian computations and provide the reader with essential implementation techniques required to exploit modern massively parallel processing environments using standard software development tools.
Truth Inference at Scale: A Bayesian Model for Adjudicating Highly Redundant Crowd Annotations
Li, Yuan, Rubinstein, Benjamin I. P., Cohn, Trevor
Crowd-sourcing is a cheap and popular means of creating training and evaluation datasets for machine learning, however it poses the problem of `truth inference', as individual workers cannot be wholly trusted to provide reliable annotations. Research into models of annotation aggregation attempts to infer a latent `true' annotation, which has been shown to improve the utility of crowd-sourced data. However, existing techniques beat simple baselines only in low redundancy settings, where the number of annotations per instance is low ($\le 3$), or in situations where workers are unreliable and produce low quality annotations (e.g., through spamming, random, or adversarial behaviours.) As we show, datasets produced by crowd-sourcing are often not of this type: the data is highly redundantly annotated ($\ge 5$ annotations per instance), and the vast majority of workers produce high quality outputs. In these settings, the majority vote heuristic performs very well, and most truth inference models underperform this simple baseline. We propose a novel technique, based on a Bayesian graphical model with conjugate priors, and simple iterative expectation-maximisation inference. Our technique produces competitive performance to the state-of-the-art benchmark methods, and is the only method that significantly outperforms the majority vote heuristic at one-sided level 0.025, shown by significance tests. Moreover, our technique is simple, is implemented in only 50 lines of code, and trains in seconds.
Bayesian Anomaly Detection and Classification
Roberts, Ethan, Bassett, Bruce A., Lochner, Michelle
Statistical uncertainties are rarely incorporated in machine learning algorithms, especially for anomaly detection. Here we present the Bayesian Anomaly Detection And Classification (BADAC) formalism, which provides a unified statistical approach to classification and anomaly detection within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. BADAC deals with uncertainties by marginalising over the unknown, true, value of the data. Using simulated data with Gaussian noise, BADAC is shown to be superior to standard algorithms in both classification and anomaly detection performance in the presence of uncertainties, though with significantly increased computational cost. Additionally, BADAC provides well-calibrated classification probabilities, valuable for use in scientific pipelines. We show that BADAC can work in online mode and is fairly robust to model errors, which can be diagnosed through model-selection methods. In addition it can perform unsupervised new class detection and can naturally be extended to search for anomalous subsets of data. BADAC is therefore ideal where computational cost is not a limiting factor and statistical rigour is important. We discuss approximations to speed up BADAC, such as the use of Gaussian processes, and finally introduce a new metric, the Rank-Weighted Score (RWS), that is particularly suited to evaluating the ability of algorithms to detect anomalies.
Probabilistic Inference of Binary Markov Random Fields in Spiking Neural Networks through Mean-field Approximation
Zheng, Yajing, Yu, Zhaofei, Jia, Shanshan, Liu, Jian K., Huang, Tiejun, Tian, Yonghong
Recent studies have suggested that the cognitive process of the human brain is realized as probabilistic inference and can be further modeled by probabilistic graphical models like Markov random fields. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how probabilistic inference can be implemented by a network of spiking neurons in the brain. Previous studies tried to relate the inference equation of binary Markov random fields to the dynamic equation of spiking neural networks through belief propagation algorithm and reparameterization, but they are valid only for Markov random fields with limited network structure. In this paper, we propose a spiking neural network model that can implement inference of arbitrary binary Markov random fields. Specifically, we design a spiking recurrent neural network and prove that its neuronal dynamics are mathematically equivalent to the inference process of Markov random fields by adopting mean-field theory.