Uncertainty
Time Series Imputation
Arcadinho, Samuel, Mateus, Paulo
Nowadays the world is full of digital data, due to the large deployment of sensors, fast internet and more computational power to generate all such that data. This data is might be very useful to extract information and predict events, allowing us to control or profit from them. In order to achieve such goal, we need fast algorithms that are capable of finding features that could bring useful information. However, this is a nontrivial task, as data is very large and usual simple statistics are slow and inaccurate. Thus, the term data mining appeared to describe the problem of finding useful information in large data sets by integrating methods from many fields, like machine learning, statistics and database systems, spatial or temporal data analysis, pattern recognition, image and signal processing. In recent years many works have been done to use machine learning techniques in order to extract useful information from data.
Scalable Data Augmentation for Deep Learning
Wang, Yuexi, Polson, Nicholas G., Sokolov, Vadim O.
Scalable Data Augmentation (SDA) provides a framework for training deep neural networks (DNNs). Our methodology exploits auxiliary hidden units which are designed to avoid backtracking and traverse local modes in an efficient way. This allows us to exploit recent advantages in high performance computing such as scalable linear algebra (CUDA, XLA). We show how to implement standard activation and objective functions, including ReLU (Polson and Roฤkovรก, 2018), logit (Zhou et al., 2012) and SVM (Mallick et al., 2005) are all available as data augmentation schemes. Data augmentation strategies are commonplace in statistical applications such as EM, ECM and MM algorithms, as they accelerate convergence and can use Nesterov acceleration (Nesterov, 1983).
Inferring Compact Representations for Efficient Natural Language Understanding of Robot Instructions
Patki, Siddharth, Daniele, Andrea F., Walter, Matthew R., Howard, Thomas M.
The speed and accuracy with which robots are able to interpret natural language is fundamental to realizing effective human-robot interaction. A great deal of attention has been paid to developing models and approximate inference algorithms that improve the efficiency of language understanding. However, existing methods still attempt to reason over a representation of the environment that is flat and unnecessarily detailed, which limits scalability. An open problem is then to develop methods capable of producing the most compact environment model sufficient for accurate and efficient natural language understanding. We propose a model that leverages environment-related information encoded within instructions to identify the subset of observations and perceptual classifiers necessary to perceive a succinct, instruction-specific environment representation. The framework uses three probabilistic graphical models trained from a corpus of annotated instructions to infer salient scene semantics, perceptual classifiers, and grounded symbols. Experimental results on two robots operating in different environments demonstrate that by exploiting the content and the structure of the instructions, our method learns compact environment representations that significantly improve the efficiency of natural language symbol grounding.
Efficient Search-Based Weighted Model Integration
Zeng, Zhe, Broeck, Guy Van den
Weighted model integration (WMI) extends Weighted model counting (WMC) to the integration of functions over mixed discrete-continuous domains. It has shown tremendous promise for solving inference problems in graphical models and probabilistic programming. Yet, state-of-the-art tools for WMI are limited in terms of performance and ignore the independence structure that is crucial to improving efficiency. To address this limitation, we propose an efficient model integration algorithm for theories with tree primal graphs. We exploit the sparse graph structure by using search to performing integration. Our algorithm greatly improves the computational efficiency on such problems and exploits context-specific independence between variables. Experimental results show dramatic speedups compared to existing WMI solvers on problems with tree-shaped dependencies.
Variational Bayesian modelling of mixed-effects
This note is concerned with an accurate and computationally efficient variational bayesian treatment of mixed-effects modelling. We focus on group studies, i.e. empirical studies that report multiple measurements acquired in multiple subjects. When approached from a bayesian perspective, such mixed-effects models typically rely upon a hierarchical generative model of the data, whereby both within- and between-subject effects contribute to the overall observed variance. The ensuing VB scheme can be used to assess statistical significance at the group level and/or to capture inter-individual differences. Alternatively, it can be seen as an adaptive regularization procedure, which iteratively learns the corresponding within-subject priors from estimates of the group distribution of effects of interest (cf. so-called "empirical bayes" approaches). We outline the mathematical derivation of the ensuing VB scheme, whose open-source implementation is available as part the VBA toolbox.
Transferability of Operational Status Classification Models Among Different Wind Turbine Typesq
Trstanova, Z., Martinsson, A., Matthews, C., Jimenez, S., Leimkuhler, B., Van Delft, T., Wilkinson, M.
A detailed understanding of wind turbine performance status classification can improve operations and maintenance in the wind energy industry. Due to different engineering properties of wind turbines, the standard supervised learning models used for classification do not generalize across data sets obtained from different wind sites. We propose two methods to deal with the transferability of the trained models: first, data normalization in the form of power curve alignment, and second, a robust method based on convolutional neural networks and feature-space extension. We demonstrate the success of our methods on real-world data sets with industrial applications. Keywords: Machine learning, classification, generalization, CNN, wind turbine, wind energy 1. Introduction Classification of operational status is an important step for performance analysis of wind farms from data of SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) type.
The Binary Space Partitioning-Tree Process
Fan, Xuhui, Li, Bin, Sisson, Scott Anthony
The Mondrian process represents an elegant and powerful approach for space partition modelling. However, as it restricts the partitions to be axis-aligned, its modelling flexibility is limited. In this work, we propose a self-consistent Binary Space Partitioning (BSP)-Tree process to generalize the Mondrian process. The BSP-Tree process is an almost surely right continuous Markov jump process that allows uniformly distributed oblique cuts in a two-dimensional convex polygon. The BSP-Tree process can also be extended using a non-uniform probability measure to generate direction differentiated cuts. The process is also self-consistent, maintaining distributional invariance under a restricted subdomain. We use Conditional-Sequential Monte Carlo for inference using the tree structure as the high-dimensional variable. The BSP-Tree process's performance on synthetic data partitioning and relational modelling demonstrates clear inferential improvements over the standard Mondrian process and other related methods.
Artificial Intelligence : from Research to Application ; the Upper-Rhine Artificial Intelligence Symposium (UR-AI 2019)
The TriRhenaTech alliance universities and their partners presented their competences in the field of artificial intelligence and their cross-border cooperations with the industry at the tri-national conference 'Artificial Intelligence : from Research to Application' on March 13th, 2019 in Offenburg. The TriRhenaTech alliance is a network of universities in the Upper Rhine Trinational Metropolitan Region comprising of the German universities of applied sciences in Furtwangen, Kaiserslautern, Karlsruhe, and Offenburg, the Baden-Wuerttemberg Cooperative State University Loerrach, the French university network Alsace Tech (comprised of 14 'grandes \'ecoles' in the fields of engineering, architecture and management) and the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland. The alliance's common goal is to reinforce the transfer of knowledge, research, and technology, as well as the cross-border mobility of students.
Modeling Intelligent Decision Making Command And Control Agents: An Application to Air Defense
The paper is a half-way between the agent technology and the mathematical reasoning to model tactical decision making tasks. These models are applied to air defense (AD) domain for command and control (C2). It also addresses the issues related to evaluation of agents. The agents are designed and implemented using the agent-programming paradigm. The agents are deployed in an air combat simulated environment for performing the tasks of C2 like electronic counter counter measures, threat assessment, and weapon allocation. The simulated AD system runs without any human intervention, and represents state-of-the-art model for C2 autonomy. The use of agents as autonomous decision making entities is particularly useful in view of futuristic network centric warfare.
TATi-Thermodynamic Analytics ToolkIt: TensorFlow-based software for posterior sampling in machine learning applications
Heber, Frederik, Trstanova, Zofia, Leimkuhler, Benedict
The fundamental role of neural networks (NNs) is readily apparent from their widespread use in machine learning in applications such as natural language processing [72], social network analysis [26], medical diagnosis [6, 35], vision systems [66], and robotic path planning [44]. The greatest success of these models lies in their flexibility, their ability to represent complex, nonlinear relationships in high-dimensional data sets, and the availability of frameworks that allow NNs to be implemented on rapidly evolving GPU platforms [40, 29]. The industrial appetite for deep learning has led to very rapid expansion of the subject in recent years, although, as pointed out by Dunson [19], at times the mathematical and theoretical understanding of these methods has been swept aside in the rush to advance the methodology. The potential impact on society of machine learning algorithms demands that their exposition and use be subject to the highest standards of clarity, ease of interpretation, and uncertainty quantification. Typical NN training seeks to optimize the parameters of the network (biases and weights) under the constraint that the training data set is well approximated [28, 23].