Many interesting problems in fields ranging from telecommunications to computational biology can be formalized in terms of large underdetermined systems of linear equations with additional constraints or regularizers. One of the most studied ones, the Compressed Sensing problem (CS), consists in finding the solution with the smallest number of non-zero components of a given system of linear equations $\boldsymbol y = \mathbf{F} \boldsymbol w$ for known measurement vector $\boldsymbol y$ and sensing matrix $\mathbf{F}$. Here, we will address the compressed sensing problem within a Bayesian inference framework where the sparsity constraint is remapped into a singular prior distribution (called Spike-and-Slab or Bernoulli-Gauss). Solution to the problem is attempted through the computation of marginal distributions via Expectation Propagation (EP), an iterative computational scheme originally developed in Statistical Physics. We will show that this strategy is comparatively more accurate than the alternatives in solving instances of CS generated from statistically correlated measurement matrices. For computational strategies based on the Bayesian framework such as variants of Belief Propagation, this is to be expected, as they implicitly rely on the hypothesis of statistical independence among the entries of the sensing matrix. Perhaps surprisingly, the method outperforms uniformly also all the other state-of-the-art methods in our tests.

This study investigates the effects of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling in unsupervised Maximum Likelihood (ML) learning. Our attention is restricted to the family of unnormalized probability densities for which the negative log density (or energy function) is a ConvNet. In general, we find that many of the techniques used to stabilize training in previous studies can have the opposite effect. Stable ML learning with a ConvNet potential can be achieved with only a few hyper-parameters and no regularization. Using this minimal framework, we identify a variety of ML learning outcomes that depend on the implementation of MCMC sampling. On one hand, we show that it is easy to train an energy-based model which can sample realistic images with short-run Langevin. ML can be effective and stable even when MCMC samples have much higher energy than true steady-state samples throughout training. Based on this insight, we introduce an ML method with purely noise-initialized MCMC, high-quality short-run synthesis, and the same budget as ML with informative MCMC initialization such as CD or PCD. Unlike previous models, our model can obtain realistic high-diversity samples from a noise signal after training with no auxiliary networks. On the other hand, ConvNet potentials learned with highly non-convergent MCMC do not have a valid steady-state and cannot be considered approximate unnormalized densities of the training data because long-run MCMC samples differ greatly from observed images. We show that it is much harder to train a ConvNet potential to learn a steady-state over realistic images. To our knowledge, long-run MCMC samples of all previous models lose the realism of short-run samples. With correct tuning of Langevin noise, we train the first ConvNet potentials for which long-run and steady-state MCMC samples are realistic images.

Normalising flows (NFS) map two density functions via a differentiable bijection whose Jacobian determinant can be computed efficiently. Recently, as an alternative to hand-crafted bijections, Huang et al. (2018) proposed neural autoregressive flow (NAF) which is a universal approximator for density functions. Their flow is a neural network (NN) whose parameters are predicted by another NN. The latter grows quadratically with the size of the former and thus an efficient technique for parametrization is needed. We propose block neural autoregressive flow (B-NAF), a much more compact universal approximator of density functions, where we model a bijection directly using a single feed-forward network. Invertibility is ensured by carefully designing each affine transformation with block matrices that make the flow autoregressive and (strictly) monotone. We compare B-NAF to NAF and other established flows on density estimation and approximate inference for latent variable models. Our proposed flow is competitive across datasets while using orders of magnitude fewer parameters.

This paper revisits the Bayesian CMA-ES and provides updates for normal Wishart. It emphasizes the difference between a normal and normal inverse Wishart prior. After some computation, we prove that the only difference relies surprisingly in the expected covariance. We prove that the expected covariance should be lower in the normal Wishart prior model because of the convexity of the inverse. We present a mixture model that generalizes both normal Wishart and normal inverse Wishart model. We finally present various numerical experiments to compare both methods as well as the generalized method.

Supplier selection problem has gained extensive attention in the prior studies. However, research based on Fuzzy Multi-Attribute Decision Making (F-MADM) approach in ranking resilient suppliers in logistic 4.0 is still in its infancy. Traditional MADM approach fails to address the resilient supplier selection problem in logistic 4.0 primarily because of the large amount of data concerning some attributes that are quantitative, yet difficult to process while making decisions. Besides, some qualitative attributes prevalent in logistic 4.0 entail imprecise perceptual or judgmental decision relevant information, and are substantially different than those considered in traditional suppler selection problems. This study, for the first time, develops a Decision Support System (DSS) that will help the decision maker to incorporate and process such imprecise heterogeneous data in a unified framework to rank a set of resilient suppliers in the logistic 4.0 environment. The proposed framework induces a triangular fuzzy number from large-scale temporal data using probability-possibility consistency principle. Large number of non-temporal data presented graphically are computed by extracting granular information that are imprecise in nature. Fuzzy linguistic variables are used to map the qualitative attributes. Finally, fuzzy based TOPSIS method is adopted to generate the ranking score of alternative suppliers. These ranking scores are used as input in a Multi-Choice Goal Programming (MCGP) model to determine optimal order allocation for respective suppliers. Finally, a sensitivity analysis assesses how the Cost versus Resilience Index (SCRI) changes when differential priorities are set for respective cost and resilience attributes.

Young isolated neutron stars (INS) most commonly manifest themselves as rotationally powered pulsars (RPPs) which involve conventional radio pulsars as well as gamma-ray pulsars (GRPs) and rotating radio transients (RRATs). Some other young INS families manifest themselves as anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs) and soft gamma-ray repeaters (SGRs) which are commonly accepted as magnetars, i.e.\ magnetically powered neutron stars with decaying super-strong fields. Yet some other young INS are identified as central compact objects (CCOs) and X-ray dim isolated neutron stars (XDINs) which are cooling objects powered by their thermal energy. Older pulsars, as a result of a previous long episode of accretion from a companion, manifest themselves as millisecond pulsars and more commonly appear in binary systems. We use Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model (DPGMM), an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, for analyzing the distribution of these pulsar families in period $P$ and period derivative $\dot{P}$ parameter space. We compare the average values of the characteristic age, magnetic dipole field strength, surface temperature and proper motion of all discovered components. We verify that DPGMM is robust and provides hints for inferring relations between different classes of pulsars. We discuss the implications of our findings for the magnetothermal spin evolution models and fallback discs.

In its most basic form, decision-making can be viewed as a computational process that progressively eliminates alternatives, thereby reducing uncertainty. Such processes are generally costly, meaning that the amount of uncertainty that can be reduced is limited by the amount of available computational resources. Here, we introduce the notion of elementary computation based on a fundamental principle for probability transfers that reduce uncertainty. Elementary computations can be considered as the inverse of Pigou-Dalton transfers applied to probability distributions, closely related to the concepts of majorization, T-transforms, and generalized entropies that induce a preorder on the space of probability distributions. As a consequence we can define resource cost functions that are order-preserving and therefore monotonic with respect to the uncertainty reduction. This leads to a comprehensive notion of decision-making processes with limited resources. Along the way, we prove several new results on majorization theory, as well as on entropy and divergence measures.

Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even under model mismatch and with adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely feasible in practice and approximation methods are usually employed, but do such methods preserve the generalization properties of Bayesian inference? In this paper, we show that this is indeed the case for some variational inference (VI) algorithms. We propose new online, tempered VI algorithms and derive their generalization bounds. Our theoretical result relies on the convexity of the variational objective, but we argue that our result should hold more generally and present empirical evidence in support of this. Our work in this paper presents theoretical justifications in favor of online algorithms that rely on approximate Bayesian methods.

For the tensor PCA (principal component analysis) problem, we propose a new hierarchy of algorithms that are increasingly powerful yet require increasing runtime. Our hierarchy is analogous to the sum-of-squares (SOS) hierarchy but is instead inspired by statistical physics and related algorithms such as belief propagation and AMP (approximate message passing). Our level-$\ell$ algorithm can be thought of as a (linearized) message-passing algorithm that keeps track of $\ell$-wise dependencies among the hidden variables. Specifically, our algorithms are spectral methods based on the Kikuchi Hessian matrix, which generalizes the well-studied Bethe Hessian matrix to the higher-order Kikuchi free energies. It is known that AMP, the flagship algorithm of statistical physics, has substantially worse performance than SOS for tensor PCA. In this work we `redeem' the statistical physics approach by showing that our hierarchy gives a polynomial-time algorithm matching the performance of SOS. Our hierarchy also yields a continuum of subexponential-time algorithms, and we prove that these achieve the same (conjecturally optimal) tradeoff between runtime and statistical power as SOS. Our results hold for even-order tensors, and we conjecture that they also hold for odd-order tensors. Our methods suggest a new avenue for systematically obtaining optimal algorithms for Bayesian inference problems, and our results constitute a step toward unifying the statistical physics and sum-of-squares approaches to algorithm design.

Structured latent attribute models (SLAMs) are a special family of discrete latent variable models widely used in social and biological sciences. This paper considers the problem of learning significant attribute patterns from a SLAM with potentially high-dimensional configurations of the latent attributes. We address the theoretical identifiability issue, propose a penalized likelihood method for the selection of the attribute patterns, and further establish the selection consistency in such an overfitted SLAM with diverging number of latent patterns. The good performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated by simulation studies and two real datasets in educational assessment.