Several structure learning algorithms have been proposed towards discovering causal or Bayesian Network (BN) graphs, which is a particularly challenging problem in AI. The performance of these algorithms is evaluated based on the relationship the learned graph has with respect to the ground truth graph. However, there is no agreed scoring function to determine this relationship. Moreover, this paper shows that the commonly used metrics tend to be biased in favour of graphs that minimise the number of edges. The evaluation bias is inconsistent and may lead to evaluating graphs with no edges as superior to graphs with varying numbers of correct and incorrect edges; implying that graphs that minimise edges are often favoured over more complex graphs due to bias rather than overall accuracy. While graphs that are less complex are often desirable, the current metrics encourage algorithms to optimise for simplicity, and to discover graphs with a limited number of edges that do not enable full propagation of evidence. This paper proposes a Balanced Scoring Function (BSF) that eliminates this bias by adjusting the reward function based on the difficulty of discovering an edge, or no edge, proportional to their occurrence rate in the ground truth graph. The BSF score can be used in conjunction with other traditional metrics to provide an alternative and unbiased assessment about the capability of structure learning algorithms in discovering causal or BN graphs.

Interaction graphs, such as those recording emails between individuals or transactions between institutions, tend to be sparse yet structured, and often grow in an unbounded manner. Such behavior can be well-captured by structured, nonparametric edge-exchangeable graphs. However, such exchangeable models necessarily ignore temporal dynamics in the network. We propose a dynamic nonparametric model for interaction graphs that combine the sparsity of the exchangeable models with dynamic clustering patterns that tend to reinforce recent behavioral patterns. We show that our method yields improved held-out likelihood over stationary variants, and impressive predictive performance against a range of state-of-the-art dynamic interaction graph models.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) often rely on very large datasets for training. Given the large size of such datasets, it is conceivable that they contain certain samples that either do not contribute or negatively impact the DNN's performance. If there is a large number of such samples, subsampling the training dataset in a way that removes them could provide an effective solution to both improve performance and reduce training time. In this paper, we propose an approach called Active Dataset Subsampling (ADS), to identify favorable subsets within a dataset for training using ensemble based uncertainty estimation. When applied to three image classification benchmarks (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet) we find that there are low uncertainty subsets, which can be as large as 50% of the full dataset, that negatively impact performance. These subsets are identified and removed with ADS. We demonstrate that datasets obtained using ADS with a lightweight ResNet-18 ensemble remain effective when used to train deeper models like ResNet-101. Our results provide strong empirical evidence that using all the available data for training can hurt performance on large scale vision tasks.

This paper introduces an innovative Bayesian machine learning algorithm to draw inference on heterogeneous causal effects in the presence of imperfect compliance (e.g., under an irregular assignment mechanism). We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the proposed Bayesian Causal Forest with Instrumental Variable (BCF-IV) algorithm outperforms other machine learning techniques tailored for causal inference (namely, Generalized Random Forest and Causal Trees with Instrumental Variable) in estimating the causal effects. Moreover, we show that it converges to an optimal asymptotic performance in discovering the drivers of heterogeneity in a simulated scenario. BCF-IV sheds a light on the heterogeneity of causal effects in instrumental variable scenarios and, in turn, provides the policy-makers with a relevant tool for targeted policies. Its empirical application evaluates the effects of additional funding on students' performances. The results indicate that BCF-IV could be used to enhance the effectiveness of school funding on students' performance by 3.2 to 3.5 times.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved lots of success on graph-structured data. In the light of this, there has been increasing interest in studying their representation power. One line of work focuses on the universal approximation of permutation-invariant functions by certain classes of GNNs, and another demonstrates the limitation of GNNs via graph isomorphism tests. Our work connects these two perspectives and proves their equivalence. We further develop a framework of the representation power of GNNs with the language of sigma-algebra, which incorporates both viewpoints. Using this framework, we compare the expressive power of different classes of GNNs as well as other methods on graphs. In particular, we prove that order-2 Graph G-invariant networks fail to distinguish non-isomorphic regular graphs with the same degree. We then extend them to a new architecture, Ring-GNNs, which succeeds on distinguishing these graphs and provides improvements on real-world social network datasets.

In this paper, we provide a method to learn the directed structure of a Bayesian network using data. The data is accessed by making conditional probability queries to a black-box model. We introduce a notion of simplicity of representation of conditional probability tables for the nodes in the Bayesian network, that we call "low rankness". We connect this notion to the Fourier transformation of real valued set functions and propose a method which learns the exact directed structure of a `low rank` Bayesian network using very few queries. We formally prove that our method correctly recovers the true directed structure, runs in polynomial time and only needs polynomial samples with respect to the number of nodes. We also provide further improvements in efficiency if we have access to some observational data.

System identification of complex and nonlinear systems is a central problem for model predictive control and model-based reinforcement learning. Despite their complexity, such systems can often be approximated well by a set of linear dynamical systems if broken into appropriate subsequences. This mechanism not only helps us find good approximations of dynamics, but also gives us deeper insight into the underlying system. Leveraging Bayesian inference, Variational Autoencoders and Concrete relaxations, we show how to learn a richer and more meaningful state space, e.g. encoding joint constraints and collisions with walls in a maze, from partial and high-dimensional observations. This representation translates into a gain of accuracy of learned dynamics showcased on various simulated tasks.

We investigate probabilistic decoupling of labels supplied for training, from the underlying classes for prediction. Decoupling enables an inference scheme general enough to implement many classification problems, including supervised, semi-supervised, positive-unlabelled, noisy-label and suggests a general solution to the multi-positive-unlabelled learning problem. We test the method on the Fashion MNIST and 20 News Groups datasets for performance benchmarks, where we simulate noise, partial labelling etc.

In rank aggregation, preferences from different users are summarized into a total order under the homogeneous data assumption. Thus, model misspecification arises and rank aggregation methods take some noise models into account. However, they all rely on certain noise model assumptions and cannot handle agnostic noises in the real world. In this paper, we propose CoarsenRank, which rectifies the underlying data distribution directly and aligns it to the homogeneous data assumption without involving any noise model. To this end, we define a neighborhood of the data distribution over which Bayesian inference of CoarsenRank is performed, and therefore the resultant posterior enjoys robustness against model misspecification. Further, we derive a tractable closed-form solution for CoarsenRank making it computationally efficient. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CoarsenRank is fast and robust, achieving consistent improvement over baseline methods.

In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric model, namely Gaussian process modulated Hawkes process and propose an EM-variational inference scheme. In this model, a transformation of Gaussian process is used as a prior on the baseline intensity and triggering kernel. By introducing a latent branching structure, the inference of baseline intensity and triggering kernel is decoupled and the variational inference scheme is embedded into an EM framework naturally. We also provide a series of schemes to accelerate the inference. Results of synthetic and real data experiments show that the underlying baseline intensity and triggering kernel can be recovered without parametric restriction and our Bayesian nonparametric estimation is superior to other state of the arts.