Uncertainty
Probabilistic Structure Learning for EEG/MEG Source Imaging with Hierarchical Graph Prior
Liu, Feng, Wang, Li, Lou, Yifei, Li, Rencang, Purdon, Patrick
Brain source imaging is an important method for noninvasively characterizing brain activity using Electroencephalogram (EEG) or Magnetoencephalography (MEG) recordings. Traditional EEG/MEG Source Imaging (ESI) methods usually assume that either source activity at different time points is unrelated, or that similar spatiotemporal patterns exist across an entire study period. The former assumption makes ESI analyses sensitive to noise, while the latter renders ESI analyses unable to account for time-varying patterns of activity. To effectively deal with noise while maintaining flexibility and continuity among brain activation patterns, we propose a novel probabilistic ESI model based on a hierarchical graph prior. Under our method, a spanning tree constraint ensures that activity patterns have spatiotemporal continuity. An efficient algorithm based on alternating convex search is presented to solve the proposed model and is provably convergent. Comprehensive numerical studies using synthetic data on a real brain model are conducted under different levels of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) from both sensor and source spaces. We also examine the EEG/MEG data in a real application, in which our ESI reconstructions are neurologically plausible. All the results demonstrate significant improvements of the proposed algorithm over the benchmark methods in terms of source localization performance, especially at high noise levels.
Artificial Intelligence in Clinical Health Care Applications: Viewpoint
van Hartskamp, Michael, Consoli, Sergio, Verhaegh, Wim, Petkoviฤ, Milan, van de Stolpe, Anja
The idea of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has a long history. It turned out, however, that reaching intelligence at human levels is more complicated than originally anticipated. Currently we are experiencing a renewed interest in AI, fueled by an enormous increase in computing power and an even larger increase in data, in combination with improved AI technologies like deep learning. Healthcare is considered the next domain to be revolutionized by Artificial Intelligence. While AI approaches are excellently suited to develop certain algorithms, for biomedical applications there are specific challenges. We propose recommendations to improve AI projects in the biomedical space and especially clinical healthcare.
Variational Spectral Graph Convolutional Networks
Tiao, Louis, Elinas, Pantelis, Nguyen, Harrison, Bonilla, Edwin V.
We propose a Bayesian approach to spectral graph convolutional networks (GCNs) where the graph parameters are considered as random variables. We develop an inference algorithm to estimate the posterior over these parameters and use it to incorporate prior information that is not naturally considered by standard GCN. The key to our approach is to define a smooth posterior parameterization over the adjacency matrix characterizing the graph, which we estimate via stochastic variational inference. Our experiments show that we can outperform standard GCN methods in the task of semi-supervised classification in noisy-graph regimes.
CCMI : Classifier based Conditional Mutual Information Estimation
Mukherjee, Sudipto, Asnani, Himanshu, Kannan, Sreeram
Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) is a measure of conditional dependence between random variables X and Y, given another random variable Z. It can be used to quantify conditional dependence among variables in many data-driven inference problems such as graphical models, causal learning, feature selection and time-series analysis. While k-nearest neighbor (kNN) based estimators as well as kernel-based methods have been widely used for CMI estimation, they suffer severely from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we leverage advances in classifiers and generative models to design methods for CMI estimation. Specifically, we introduce an estimator for KL-Divergence based on the likelihood ratio by training a classifier to distinguish the observed joint distribution from the product distribution. We then show how to construct several CMI estimators using this basic divergence estimator by drawing ideas from conditional generative models. We demonstrate that the estimates from our proposed approaches do not degrade in performance with increasing dimension and obtain significant improvement over the widely used KSG estimator. Finally, as an application of accurate CMI estimation, we use our best estimator for conditional independence testing and achieve superior performance than the state-of-the-art tester on both simulated and real data-sets.
General Purpose Incremental Covariance Update and Efficient Belief Space Planning via Factor-Graph Propagation Action Tree
Kopitkov, Dmitry, Indelman, Vadim
Fast covariance calculation is required both for SLAM (e.g.~in order to solve data association) and for evaluating the information-theoretic term for different candidate actions in belief space planning (BSP). In this paper we make two primary contributions. First, we develop a novel general-purpose incremental covariance update technique, which efficiently recovers specific covariance entries after any change in the inference problem, such as introduction of new observations/variables or re-linearization of the state vector. Our approach is shown to recover them faster than other state-of-the-art methods. Second, we present a computationally efficient approach for BSP in high-dimensional state spaces, leveraging our incremental covariance update method. State of the art BSP approaches perform belief propagation for each candidate action and then evaluate an objective function that typically includes an information-theoretic term, such as entropy or information gain. Yet, candidate actions often have similar parts (e.g. common trajectory parts), which are however evaluated separately for each candidate. Moreover, calculating the information-theoretic term involves a costly determinant computation of the entire information (covariance) matrix which is O(n^3) with n being dimension of the state or costly Schur complement operations if only marginal posterior covariance of certain variables is of interest. Our approach, rAMDL-Tree, extends our previous BSP method rAMDL, by exploiting incremental covariance calculation and performing calculation re-use between common parts of non-myopic candidate actions, such that these parts are evaluated only once, in contrast to existing approaches.
Noise Contrastive Meta-Learning for Conditional Density Estimation using Kernel Mean Embeddings
Ton, Jean-Francois, Chan, Lucian, Teh, Yee Whye, Sejdinovic, Dino
Current meta-learning approaches focus on learning functional representations of relationships between variables, i.e. on estimating conditional expectations in regression. In many applications, however, we are faced with conditional distributions which cannot be meaningfully summarized using expectation only (due to e.g. multimodality). Hence, we consider the problem of conditional density estimation in the meta-learning setting. We introduce a novel technique for meta-learning which combines neural representation and noise-contrastive estimation with the established literature of conditional mean embeddings into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The method is validated on synthetic and real-world problems, demonstrating the utility of sharing learned representations across multiple conditional density estimation tasks.
Gradient-Based Neural DAG Learning
Lachapelle, Sรฉbastien, Brouillard, Philippe, Deleu, Tristan, Lacoste-Julien, Simon
We propose a novel score-based approach to learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. We adapt a recently proposed continuous constrained optimization formulation to allow for nonlinear relationships between variables using neural networks. This extension allows to model complex interactions while being more global in its search compared to other greedy approaches. In addition to comparing our method to existing continuous optimization methods, we provide missing empirical comparisons to nonlinear greedy search methods. On both synthetic and real-world data sets, this new method outperforms current continuous methods on most tasks while being competitive with existing greedy search methods on important metrics for causal inference.
Combining Physics-Based Domain Knowledge and Machine Learning using Variational Gaussian Processes with Explicit Linear Prior
Marino, Daniel L., Manic, Milos
Centuries of development in natural sciences and mathematical modeling provide valuable domain expert knowledge that has yet to be explored for the development of machine learning models. When modeling complex physical systems, both domain knowledge and data contribute important information about the system. In this paper, we present a data-driven model that takes advantage of partial domain knowledge in order to improve generalization and interpretability. The presented model, which we call EVGP (Explicit Variational Gaussian Process), uses an explicit linear prior to incorporate partial domain knowledge while using data to fill in the gaps in knowledge. Variational inference was used to obtain a sparse approximation that scales well to large datasets. The advantages include: 1) using partial domain knowledge to improve inductive bias (assumptions of the model), 2) scalability to large datasets, 3) improved interpretability. We show how the EVGP model can be used to learn system dynamics using basic Newtonian mechanics as prior knowledge. We demonstrate that using simple priors from partially defined physics models considerably improves performance when compared to fully data-driven models.
Cubic-Spline Flows
Durkan, Conor, Bekasov, Artur, Murray, Iain, Papamakarios, George
A normalizing flow models a complex probability density as an invertible transformation of a simple density. The invertibility means that we can evaluate densities and generate samples from a flow. In practice, autoregressive flow-based models are slow to invert, making either density estimation or sample generation slow. Flows based on coupling transforms are fast for both tasks, but have previously performed less well at density estimation than autoregressive flows. We stack a new coupling transform, based on monotonic cubic splines, with LU-decomposed linear layers. The resulting cubic-spline flow retains an exact one-pass inverse, can be used to generate high-quality images, and closes the gap with autoregressive flows on a suite of density-estimation tasks.
Do place cells dream of conditional probabilities? Learning Neural Nystr\"om representations
We posit that hippocampal place cells encode information about future locations under a transition distribution observed as an agent explores a given (physical or conceptual) space. The encoding of information about the current location, usually associated with place cells, then emerges as a necessary step to achieve this broader goal. We formally derive a biologically-inspired neural network from Nystr\"om kernel approximations and empirically demonstrate that the network successfully approximates transition distributions. The proposed network yields representations that, just like place cells, soft-tile the input space with highly sparse and localized receptive fields. Additionally, we show that the proposed computational motif can be extended to handle supervised problems, creating class-specific place cells while exhibiting low sample complexity.