Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performances in many important domains, including medical diagnosis, security, and autonomous driving. In these domains where safety is highly critical, an erroneous decision can result in serious consequences. While a perfect prediction accuracy is not always achievable, recent work on Bayesian deep networks shows that it is possible to know when DNNs are more likely to make mistakes. Knowing what DNNs do not know is desirable to increase the safety of deep learning technology in sensitive applications. Bayesian neural networks attempt to address this challenge. However, traditional approaches are computationally intractable and do not scale well to large, complex neural network architectures. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework to approximate Bayesian inference for DNNs by imposing a Bernoulli distribution on the model weights. This method, called MC-DropConnect, gives us a tool to represent the model uncertainty with little change in the overall model structure or computational cost. We extensively validate the proposed algorithm on multiple network architectures and datasets for classification and semantic segmentation tasks. We also propose new metrics to quantify the uncertainty estimates. This enables an objective comparison between MC-DropConnect and prior approaches. Our empirical results demonstrate that the proposed framework yields significant improvement in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty estimation quality compared to the state of the art.

Segmentation of anatomical structures and pathologies is inherently ambiguous. For instance, structure borders may not be clearly visible or different experts may have different styles of annotating. The majority of current state-of-the-art methods do not account for such ambiguities but rather learn a single mapping from image to segmentation. In this work, we propose a novel method to model the conditional probability distribution of the segmentations given an input image. We derive a hierarchical probabilistic model, in which separate latent spaces are responsible for modelling the segmentation at different resolutions. Inference in this model can be efficiently performed using the variational autoencoder framework. We show that our proposed method can be used to generate significantly more realistic and diverse segmentation samples compared to recent related work, both, when trained with annotations from a single or multiple annotators.

The proliferation of automated inference algorithms in Bayesian statistics has provided practitioners newfound access to fast, reproducible data analysis and powerful statistical models. Designing automated methods that are also both computationally scalable and theoretically sound, however, remains a significant challenge. Recent work on Bayesian coresets takes the approach of compressing the dataset before running a standard inference algorithm, providing both scalability and guarantees on posterior approximation error. But the automation of past coreset methods is limited because they depend on the availability of a reasonable coarse posterior approximation, which is difficult to specify in practice. In the present work we remove this requirement by formulating coreset construction as sparsity-constrained variational inference within an exponential family. This perspective leads to a novel construction via greedy optimization, and also provides a unifying information-geometric view of present and past methods. The proposed Riemannian coreset construction algorithm is fully automated, requiring no inputs aside from the dataset, probabilistic model, desired coreset size, and sample size used for Monte Carlo estimates. In addition to being easier to use than past methods, experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves state-of-the-art Bayesian dataset summarization.

Sequential data often originates from diverse domains across which statistical regularities and domain specifics exist. To specifically learn cross-domain sequence representations, we introduce disentangled state space models (DSSM) -- a class of SSM in which domain-invariant state dynamics is explicitly disentangled from domain-specific information governing that dynamics. We analyze how such separation can improve knowledge transfer to new domains, and enable robust prediction, sequence manipulation and domain characterization. We furthermore propose an unsupervised VAE-based training procedure to implement DSSM in form of Bayesian filters. In our experiments, we applied VAE-DSSM framework to achieve competitive performance in online ODE system identification and regression across experimental settings, and controlled generation and prediction of bouncing ball video sequences across varying gravitational influences.

In this paper, we present a domain adaptation based generative framework for Zero-Shot Learning. We explicitly target the problem of domain shift between the seen and unseen class distribution in Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) and seek to minimize it by developing a generative model and training it via adversarial domain adaptation. Our approach is based on end-to-end learning of the class distributions of seen classes and unseen classes. To enable the model to learn the class distributions of unseen classes, we parameterize these class distributions in terms of the class attribute information (which is available for both seen and unseen classes). This provides a very simple way to learn the class distribution of any unseen class, given only its class attribute information, and no labeled training data. Training this model with adversarial domain adaptation provides robustness against the distribution mismatch between the data from seen and unseen classes. Through a comprehensive set of experiments, we show that our model yields superior accuracies as compared to various state-of-the-art ZSL models, on a variety of benchmark datasets.

Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only Lipschitz conditions rather than strict architectural constraints are needed for enforcing invertibility. However, prior work trained invertible residual networks for density estimation by relying on biased log-density estimates whose bias increased with the network's expressiveness. We give a tractable unbiased estimate of the log density, and reduce the memory required during training by a factor of ten. Furthermore, we improve invertible residual blocks by proposing the use of activation functions that avoid gradient saturation and generalizing the Lipschitz condition to induced mixed norms. The resulting approach, called Residual Flows, achieves state-of-the-art performance on density estimation amongst flow-based models, and outperforms networks that use coupling blocks at joint generative and discriminative modeling.

This paper demonstrates a novel method for separately estimating aleatoric risk and epistemic uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning. Aleatoric risk, which arises from inherently stochastic environments or agents, must be accounted for in the design of risk-sensitive algorithms. Epistemic uncertainty, which stems from limited data, is important both for risk-sensitivity and to efficiently explore an environment. We first present a Bayesian framework for learning the return distribution in reinforcement learning, which provides theoretical foundations for quantifying both types of uncertainty. Based on this framework, we show that the disagreement between only two neural networks is sufficient to produce a low-variance estimate of the epistemic uncertainty on the return distribution, thus providing a simple and computationally cheap uncertainty metric. We demonstrate experiments that illustrate our method and some applications.

This paper proposes a method for estimating consumer preferences among discrete choices, where the consumer chooses at most one product in a category, but selects from multiple categories in parallel. The consumer's utility is additive in the different categories. Her preferences about product attributes as well as her price sensitivity vary across products and are in general correlated across products. We build on techniques from the machine learning literature on probabilistic models of matrix factorization, extending the methods to account for time-varying product attributes and products going out of stock. We evaluate the performance of the model using held-out data from weeks with price changes or out of stock products. We show that our model improves over traditional modeling approaches that consider each category in isolation. One source of the improvement is the ability of the model to accurately estimate heterogeneity in preferences (by pooling information across categories); another source of improvement is its ability to estimate the preferences of consumers who have rarely or never made a purchase in a given category in the training data. Using held-out data, we show that our model can accurately distinguish which consumers are most price sensitive to a given product. We consider counterfactuals such as personally targeted price discounts, showing that using a richer model such as the one we propose substantially increases the benefits of personalization in discounts.

This demo takes the form of a challenge to the IJCAI community. A physical vault, secured by a 4-digit code, will be placed in the demo area. The author will publicly open the vault by entering the code on a touch-based interface, and as many times as requested. The challenge to the IJCAI participants will be to crack the code, open the vault, and collect its content. The interface is based on previous work on calibration-free interactive systems that enables a user to start instructing a machine without the machine knowing how to interpret the user's actions beforehand. The intent and the behavior of the human are simultaneously learned by the machine. An online demo and videos are available for readers to participate in the challenge. An additional interface using vocal commands will be revealed on the demo day, demonstrating the scalability of our approach to continuous input signals.

Variational autoencoders provide a principled framework for learning deep latent-variable models and corresponding inference models. In this work, we provide an introduction to variational autoencoders and some important extensions.