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 Uncertainty


A cost-reducing partial labeling estimator in text classification problem

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new approach to address the text classification problems when learning with partial labels is beneficial. Instead of offering each training sample a set of candidate labels, we assign negative-oriented labels to the ambiguous training examples if they are unlikely fall into certain classes. We construct our new maximum likelihood estimators with self-correction property, and prove that under some conditions, our estimators converge faster. Also we discuss the advantages of applying one of our estimator to a fully supervised learning problem. The proposed method has potential applicability in many areas, such as crowdsourcing, natural language processing and medical image analysis.


Note on the bias and variance of variational inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this note, we study the relationship between the variational gap and the variance of the (log) likelihood ratio. We show that the gap can be upper bounded by some form of dispersion measure of the likelihood ratio, which suggests the bias of variational inference can be reduced by making the distribution of the likelihood ratio more concentrated, such as via averaging and variance reduction.


Active inference body perception and action for humanoid robots

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of the biggest challenges in robotics systems is interacting under uncertainty. Unlike robots, humans learn, adapt and perceive their body as a unity when interacting with the world. We hypothesize that the nervous system counteracts sensor and motor uncertainties by unconscious processes that robustly fuse the available information for approximating their body and the world state. Being able to unite perception and action under a common principle has been sought for decades and active inference is one of the potential unification theories. In this work, we present a humanoid robot interacting with the world by means of a human brain-like inspired perception and control algorithm based on the free-energy principle. Until now, active inference was only tested in simulated examples. Their application on a real robot shows the advantages of such an algorithm for real world applications. The humanoid robot iCub was capable of performing robust reaching behaviors with both arms and active head object tracking in the visual field, despite the visual noise, the artificially introduced noise in the joint encoders (up to 40 degrees deviation), the differences between the model and the real robot and the misdetections of the hand.


Efficient non-conjugate Gaussian process factor models for spike count data using polynomial approximations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (GPFA) has been broadly applied to the problem of identifying smooth, low-dimensional temporal structure underlying large-scale neural recordings. However, spike trains are non-Gaussian, which motivates combining GPFA with discrete observation models for binned spike count data. The drawback to this approach is that GPFA priors are not conjugate to count model likelihoods, which makes inference challenging. Here we address this obstacle by introducing a fast, approximate inference method for non-conjugate GPFA models. Our approach uses orthogonal second-order polynomials to approximate the nonlinear terms in the non-conjugate log-likelihood, resulting in a method we refer to as polynomial approximate log-likelihood (PAL) estimators. This approximation allows for accurate closed-form evaluation of marginal likelihood and fast numerical optimization for parameters and hyperparameters. We derive PAL estimators for GPFA models with binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial observations, and additionally show that the parameters obtained can be used to initialize black-box variational inference, which significantly speeds up and stabilizes the inference procedure for these factor analytic models. We apply these methods to data from mouse visual cortex and monkey higher-order visual and parietal cortices, and compare GPFA under three different spike count observation models to traditional GPFA. We demonstrate that PAL estimators achieve fast and accurate extraction of latent structure from multi-neuron spike train data.


BayesNAS: A Bayesian Approach for Neural Architecture Search

arXiv.org Machine Learning

One-Shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) is a promising method to significantly reduce search time without any separate training. It can be treated as a Network Compression problem on the architecture parameters from an over-parameterized network. However, there are two issues associated with most one-shot NAS methods. First, dependencies between a node and its predecessors and successors are often disregarded which result in improper treatment over zero operations. Second, architecture parameters pruning based on their magnitude is questionable. In this paper, we employ the classic Bayesian learning approach to alleviate these two issues by modeling architecture parameters using hierarchical automatic relevance determination (HARD) priors. Unlike other NAS methods, we train the over-parameterized network for only one epoch then update the architecture. Impressively, this enabled us to find the architecture on CIFAR-10 within only 0.2 GPU days using a single GPU. Competitive performance can be also achieved by transferring to ImageNet. As a byproduct, our approach can be applied directly to compress convolutional neural networks by enforcing structural sparsity which achieves extremely sparse networks without accuracy deterioration.


DropConnect Is Effective in Modeling Uncertainty of Bayesian Deep Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performances in many important domains, including medical diagnosis, security, and autonomous driving. In these domains where safety is highly critical, an erroneous decision can result in serious consequences. While a perfect prediction accuracy is not always achievable, recent work on Bayesian deep networks shows that it is possible to know when DNNs are more likely to make mistakes. Knowing what DNNs do not know is desirable to increase the safety of deep learning technology in sensitive applications. Bayesian neural networks attempt to address this challenge. However, traditional approaches are computationally intractable and do not scale well to large, complex neural network architectures. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework to approximate Bayesian inference for DNNs by imposing a Bernoulli distribution on the model weights. This method, called MC-DropConnect, gives us a tool to represent the model uncertainty with little change in the overall model structure or computational cost. We extensively validate the proposed algorithm on multiple network architectures and datasets for classification and semantic segmentation tasks. We also propose new metrics to quantify the uncertainty estimates. This enables an objective comparison between MC-DropConnect and prior approaches. Our empirical results demonstrate that the proposed framework yields significant improvement in both prediction accuracy and uncertainty estimation quality compared to the state of the art.


PHiSeg: Capturing Uncertainty in Medical Image Segmentation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Segmentation of anatomical structures and pathologies is inherently ambiguous. For instance, structure borders may not be clearly visible or different experts may have different styles of annotating. The majority of current state-of-the-art methods do not account for such ambiguities but rather learn a single mapping from image to segmentation. In this work, we propose a novel method to model the conditional probability distribution of the segmentations given an input image. We derive a hierarchical probabilistic model, in which separate latent spaces are responsible for modelling the segmentation at different resolutions. Inference in this model can be efficiently performed using the variational autoencoder framework. We show that our proposed method can be used to generate significantly more realistic and diverse segmentation samples compared to recent related work, both, when trained with annotations from a single or multiple annotators.


Sparse Variational Inference: Bayesian Coresets from Scratch

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The proliferation of automated inference algorithms in Bayesian statistics has provided practitioners newfound access to fast, reproducible data analysis and powerful statistical models. Designing automated methods that are also both computationally scalable and theoretically sound, however, remains a significant challenge. Recent work on Bayesian coresets takes the approach of compressing the dataset before running a standard inference algorithm, providing both scalability and guarantees on posterior approximation error. But the automation of past coreset methods is limited because they depend on the availability of a reasonable coarse posterior approximation, which is difficult to specify in practice. In the present work we remove this requirement by formulating coreset construction as sparsity-constrained variational inference within an exponential family. This perspective leads to a novel construction via greedy optimization, and also provides a unifying information-geometric view of present and past methods. The proposed Riemannian coreset construction algorithm is fully automated, requiring no inputs aside from the dataset, probabilistic model, desired coreset size, and sample size used for Monte Carlo estimates. In addition to being easier to use than past methods, experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves state-of-the-art Bayesian dataset summarization.


Disentangled State Space Representations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sequential data often originates from diverse domains across which statistical regularities and domain specifics exist. To specifically learn cross-domain sequence representations, we introduce disentangled state space models (DSSM) -- a class of SSM in which domain-invariant state dynamics is explicitly disentangled from domain-specific information governing that dynamics. We analyze how such separation can improve knowledge transfer to new domains, and enable robust prediction, sequence manipulation and domain characterization. We furthermore propose an unsupervised VAE-based training procedure to implement DSSM in form of Bayesian filters. In our experiments, we applied VAE-DSSM framework to achieve competitive performance in online ODE system identification and regression across experimental settings, and controlled generation and prediction of bouncing ball video sequences across varying gravitational influences.


A Generative Framework for Zero-Shot Learning with Adversarial Domain Adaptation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we present a domain adaptation based generative framework for Zero-Shot Learning. We explicitly target the problem of domain shift between the seen and unseen class distribution in Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) and seek to minimize it by developing a generative model and training it via adversarial domain adaptation. Our approach is based on end-to-end learning of the class distributions of seen classes and unseen classes. To enable the model to learn the class distributions of unseen classes, we parameterize these class distributions in terms of the class attribute information (which is available for both seen and unseen classes). This provides a very simple way to learn the class distribution of any unseen class, given only its class attribute information, and no labeled training data. Training this model with adversarial domain adaptation provides robustness against the distribution mismatch between the data from seen and unseen classes. Through a comprehensive set of experiments, we show that our model yields superior accuracies as compared to various state-of-the-art ZSL models, on a variety of benchmark datasets.