Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of class prevalences. One little considered question is whether or not it is necessary for practical purposes to distinguish confidence and prediction intervals. Another question so far not yet conclusively answered is whether or not the discriminatory power of the classifier or score at the basis of an estimation method matters for the accuracy of the estimates of the class prevalences. This paper presents a simulation study aimed at shedding some light on these and other related questions.

Credit risk modelling is an integral part of the global financial system. While there has been great attention paid to neural network models for credit default prediction, such models often lack the required interpretation mechanisms and measures of the uncertainty around their predictions. This work develops and compares Bayesian Neural Networks(BNNs) for credit card default modelling. This includes a BNNs trained by Gaussian approximation and the first implementation of BNNs trained by Hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC) in credit risk modelling. The results on the Taiwan Credit Dataset show that BNNs with Automatic Relevance Determination(ARD) outperform normal BNNs without ARD. The results also show that BNNs trained by Gaussian approximation display similar predictive performance to those trained by the HMC. The results further show that BNN with ARD can be used to draw inferences about the relative importance of different features thus critically aiding decision makers in explaining model output to consumers. The robustness of this result is reinforced by high levels of congruence between the features identified as important using the two different approaches for training BNNs.

We propose to learn deep undirected graphical models (i.e., MRFs), with a non-ELBO objective for which we can calculate exact gradients. In particular, we optimize a saddle-point objective deriving from the Bethe free energy approximation to the partition function. Unlike much recent work in approximate inference, the derived objective requires no sampling, and can be efficiently computed even for very expressive MRFs. We furthermore amortize this optimization with trained inference networks. Experimentally, we find that the proposed approach compares favorably with loopy belief propagation, but is faster, and it allows for attaining better held out log likelihood than other recent approximate inference schemes.

$Q$-learning with function approximation is one of the most popular methods in reinforcement learning. Though the idea of using function approximation was proposed at least $60$ years ago, even in the simplest setup, i.e, approximating $Q$-functions with linear functions, it is still an open problem how to design a provably efficient algorithm that learns a near-optimal policy. The key challenges are how to efficiently explore the state space and how to decide when to stop exploring in conjunction with the function approximation scheme. The current paper presents a provably efficient algorithm for $Q$-learning with linear function approximation. Under certain regularity assumptions, our algorithm, Difference Maximization $Q$-learning (DMQ), combined with linear function approximation, returns a near optimal policy using polynomial number of trajectories. Our algorithm introduces a new notion, the Distribution Shift Error Checking (DSEC) oracle. This oracle tests whether there exists a function in the function class that predicts well on a distribution $\mathcal{D}_1$, but predicts poorly on another distribution $\mathcal{D}_2$, where $\mathcal{D}_1$ and $\mathcal{D}_2$ are distributions over states induced by two different exploration policies. For the linear function class, this oracle is equivalent to solving a top eigenvalue problem. We believe our algorithmic insights, especially the DSEC oracle, are also useful in designing and analyzing reinforcement learning algorithms with general function approximation.

In classical federated learning a central server coordinates the training of a single model on a massively distributed network of devices. This setting can be naturally extended to a multi-task learning framework, to handle real-world federated datasets that typically show strong non-IID data distributions among devices. Even though federated multi-task learning has been shown to be an effective paradigm for real world datasets, it has been applied only to convex models. In this work we introduce VIRTUAL, an algorithm for federated multi-task learning with non-convex models. In VIRTUAL the federated network of the server and the clients is treated as a star-shaped Bayesian network, and learning is performed on the network using approximated variational inference. We show that this method is effective on real-world federated datasets, outperforming the current state-of-the-art for federated learning.

We introduce Gluon Time Series (GluonTS, available at https://gluon-ts.mxnet.io), a library for deep-learning-based time series modeling. GluonTS simplifies the development of and experimentation with time series models for common tasks such as forecasting or anomaly detection. It provides all necessary components and tools that scientists need for quickly building new models, for efficiently running and analyzing experiments and for evaluating model accuracy.

Discovery of causal relations from observational data is essential for many disciplines of science and real-world applications. However, unlike traditional machine learning algorithms, whose developments have been greatly fostered by a large amount of available benchmark datasets, causal discovery algorithms are notoriously difficult to be systematically evaluated due to the fact that few datasets with known ground-truth causal relations are available. In this work, we handle the problem of evaluating causal discovery algorithms by building a flexible simulator in the medical setting. We develop a neuropathic pain simulator, inspired by the fact that the biological processes of neuropathic pathophysiology are well studied with well-understood causal influences. Our simulator exploits the causal graph of the neuropathic pain pathology, and its parameters in the generator are estimated from real-life patient cases. We show that data generated from our simulator have the same statistics as real-world data. As a clear advantage, the simulator can produce infinite samples without jeopardizing the privacy of real-world patients. Our simulator provides a natural tool for evaluating various types of causal discovery algorithms, including those to deal with practical issues in causal discovery, such as unknown confounders, selection bias, and missing data. Using our simulator, we have evaluated extensively causal discovery algorithms under various settings.

Machine Learning, often abbreviated to ML, is a form of learning in which systems use complex computer algorithms to acquire knowledge or skill automatically without being programmed directly. It is considered as a type of AI (Artificial Intelligence) since machines are built with the idea to learn and make decisions from the available data and even improve themselves from experience without requiring human involvement. This is mainly used to maximize the machine's performance. The idea behind ML is based on mathematics, computer science, and statistics. Additionally, great scientists such as Andrey Markov, Thomas Bayes, and Carl Friedrich Gauss have contributed in the invention of statistical models like Markov Chains, Bayes Theorem, and the method of Least-Square respectively which are used a great deal in the Machine Learning algorithms.

In recent years, deep learning has proven to be a viable methodology for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification for a vast number of physical systems. However, in their traditional form, such models require a large amount of training data. This is of particular importance for various engineering and scientific applications where data may be extremely expensive to obtain. To overcome this shortcoming, physics-constrained deep learning provides a promising methodology as it only utilizes the governing equations. In this work, we propose a novel auto-regressive dense encoder-decoder convolutional neural network to solve and model transient systems with non-linear dynamics at a computational cost that is potentially magnitudes lower than standard numerical solvers. This model includes a Bayesian framework that allows for uncertainty quantification of the predicted quantities of interest at each time-step. We rigorously test this model on several non-linear transient partial differential equation systems including the turbulence of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, multi-shock formation and interaction with 1D Burgers' equation and 2D wave dynamics with coupled Burgers' equations. For each system, the predictive results and uncertainty are presented and discussed together with comparisons to the results obtained from traditional numerical analysis methods.

Training deep generative models with maximum likelihood remains a challenge. The typical workaround is to use variational inference (VI) and maximize a lower bound to the log marginal likelihood of the data. Variational auto-encoders (VAEs) adopt this approach. They further amortize the cost of inference by using a recognition network to parameterize the variational family. Amortized VI scales approximate posterior inference in deep generative models to large datasets. However it introduces an amortization gap and leads to approximate posteriors of reduced expressivity due to the problem known as posterior collapse. In this paper, we consider expectation maximization (EM) as a paradigm for fitting deep generative models. Unlike VI, EM directly maximizes the log marginal likelihood of the data. We rediscover the importance weighted auto-encoder (IWAE) as an instance of EM and propose a new EM-based algorithm for fitting deep generative models called reweighted expectation maximization (REM). REM learns better generative models than the IWAE by decoupling the learning dynamics of the generative model and the recognition network using a separate expressive proposal found by moment matching. We compared REM to the VAE and the IWAE on several density estimation benchmarks and found it leads to significantly better performance as measured by log-likelihood.