It is common practice in using regression type models for inferring causal effects, that inferring the correct causal relationship requires extra covariates are included or ``adjusted for''. Without performing this adjustment erroneous causal effects can be inferred. Given this phenomenon it is common practice to include as many covariates as possible, however such advice comes unstuck in the presence of M-bias. M-Bias is a problem in causal inference where the correct estimation of treatment effects requires that certain variables are not adjusted for i.e. are simply neglected from inclusion in the model. This issue caused a storm of controversy in 2009 when Rubin, Pearl and others disagreed about if it could be problematic to include additional variables in models when inferring causal effects. This paper makes two contributions to this issue. Firstly we provide a Bayesian solution to the M-Bias problem. The solution replicates Pearl's solution, but consistent with Rubin's advice we condition on all variables. Secondly the fact that we are able to offer a solution to this problem in Bayesian terms shows that it is indeed possible to represent causal relationships within the Bayesian paradigm, albeit in an extended space. We make several remarks on the similarities and differences between causal graphical models which implement the do-calculus and probabilistic graphical models which enable Bayesian statistics. We hope this work will stimulate more research on unifying Pearl's causal calculus using causal graphical models with traditional Bayesian statistics and probabilistic graphical models.

This paper presents novel mixed-type Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms to accelerate the optimization of a target objective function by exploiting correlated auxiliary information of binary type that can be more cheaply obtained, such as in policy search for reinforcement learning and hyperparameter tuning of machine learning models with early stopping. To achieve this, we first propose a mixed-type multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) to jointly model the continuous target function and binary auxiliary functions. Then, we propose information-based acquisition functions such as mixed-type entropy search (MT-ES) and mixed-type predictive ES (MT-PES) for mixed-type BO based on the MOGP predictive belief of the target and auxiliary functions. The exact acquisition functions of MT-ES and MT-PES cannot be computed in closed form and need to be approximated. We derive an efficient approximation of MT-PES via a novel mixed-type random features approximation of the MOGP model whose cross-correlation structure between the target and auxiliary functions can be exploited for improving the belief of the global target maximizer using observations from evaluating these functions. We propose new practical constraints to relate the global target maximizer to the binary auxiliary functions. We empirically evaluate the performance of MT-ES and MT-PES with synthetic and real-world experiments.

Machine learning develops rapidly, which has made many theoretical breakthroughs and is widely applied in various fields. Optimization, as an important part of machine learning, has attracted much attention of researchers. With the exponential growth of data amount and the increase of model complexity, optimization methods in machine learning face more and more challenges. A lot of work on solving optimization problems or improving optimization methods in machine learning has been proposed successively. The systematic retrospect and summary of the optimization methods from the perspective of machine learning are of great significance, which can offer guidance for both developments of optimization and machine learning research. In this paper, we first describe the optimization problems in machine learning. Then, we introduce the principles and progresses of commonly used optimization methods. Next, we summarize the applications and developments of optimization methods in some popular machine learning fields. Finally, we explore and give some challenges and open problems for the optimization in machine learning.

Bayesian networks are a versatile and powerful tool to model complex phenomena and the interplay of their components in a probabilistically principled way. Moving beyond the comparatively simple case of completely observed, static data, which has received the most attention in the literature, in this paper we will review how Bayesian networks can model dynamic data and data with incomplete observations. Such data are the norm at the forefront of research and applications, and Bayesian networks are uniquely positioned to model them due to their explainability and interpretability.

Learning to imitate expert behavior given action demonstrations containing high-dimensional, continuous observations and unknown dynamics is a difficult problem in robotic control. Simple approaches based on behavioral cloning (BC) suffer from state distribution shift, while more complex methods that generalize to out-of-distribution states can be difficult to use, since they typically involve adversarial optimization. We propose an alternative that combines the simplicity of BC with the robustness of adversarial imitation learning. The key insight is that under the maximum entropy model of expert behavior, BC corresponds to fitting a soft Q function that maximizes the likelihood of observed actions. This perspective suggests a way to regularize BC so that it generalizes to out-of-distribution states: combine the standard maximum-likelihood objective with a penalty on the soft Bellman error of the soft Q function. We show that this penalty term gives the agent an incentive to take actions that lead it back to demonstrated states when it encounters new states. Experiments show that our method outperforms BC and GAIL on a variety of image-based and low-dimensional environments in Box2D, Atari, and MuJoCo.

Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of class prevalences. One little considered question is whether or not it is necessary for practical purposes to distinguish confidence and prediction intervals. Another question so far not yet conclusively answered is whether or not the discriminatory power of the classifier or score at the basis of an estimation method matters for the accuracy of the estimates of the class prevalences. This paper presents a simulation study aimed at shedding some light on these and other related questions.

Credit risk modelling is an integral part of the global financial system. While there has been great attention paid to neural network models for credit default prediction, such models often lack the required interpretation mechanisms and measures of the uncertainty around their predictions. This work develops and compares Bayesian Neural Networks(BNNs) for credit card default modelling. This includes a BNNs trained by Gaussian approximation and the first implementation of BNNs trained by Hybrid Monte Carlo(HMC) in credit risk modelling. The results on the Taiwan Credit Dataset show that BNNs with Automatic Relevance Determination(ARD) outperform normal BNNs without ARD. The results also show that BNNs trained by Gaussian approximation display similar predictive performance to those trained by the HMC. The results further show that BNN with ARD can be used to draw inferences about the relative importance of different features thus critically aiding decision makers in explaining model output to consumers. The robustness of this result is reinforced by high levels of congruence between the features identified as important using the two different approaches for training BNNs.

We propose to learn deep undirected graphical models (i.e., MRFs), with a non-ELBO objective for which we can calculate exact gradients. In particular, we optimize a saddle-point objective deriving from the Bethe free energy approximation to the partition function. Unlike much recent work in approximate inference, the derived objective requires no sampling, and can be efficiently computed even for very expressive MRFs. We furthermore amortize this optimization with trained inference networks. Experimentally, we find that the proposed approach compares favorably with loopy belief propagation, but is faster, and it allows for attaining better held out log likelihood than other recent approximate inference schemes.

$Q$-learning with function approximation is one of the most popular methods in reinforcement learning. Though the idea of using function approximation was proposed at least $60$ years ago, even in the simplest setup, i.e, approximating $Q$-functions with linear functions, it is still an open problem how to design a provably efficient algorithm that learns a near-optimal policy. The key challenges are how to efficiently explore the state space and how to decide when to stop exploring in conjunction with the function approximation scheme. The current paper presents a provably efficient algorithm for $Q$-learning with linear function approximation. Under certain regularity assumptions, our algorithm, Difference Maximization $Q$-learning (DMQ), combined with linear function approximation, returns a near optimal policy using polynomial number of trajectories. Our algorithm introduces a new notion, the Distribution Shift Error Checking (DSEC) oracle. This oracle tests whether there exists a function in the function class that predicts well on a distribution $\mathcal{D}_1$, but predicts poorly on another distribution $\mathcal{D}_2$, where $\mathcal{D}_1$ and $\mathcal{D}_2$ are distributions over states induced by two different exploration policies. For the linear function class, this oracle is equivalent to solving a top eigenvalue problem. We believe our algorithmic insights, especially the DSEC oracle, are also useful in designing and analyzing reinforcement learning algorithms with general function approximation.

In classical federated learning a central server coordinates the training of a single model on a massively distributed network of devices. This setting can be naturally extended to a multi-task learning framework, to handle real-world federated datasets that typically show strong non-IID data distributions among devices. Even though federated multi-task learning has been shown to be an effective paradigm for real world datasets, it has been applied only to convex models. In this work we introduce VIRTUAL, an algorithm for federated multi-task learning with non-convex models. In VIRTUAL the federated network of the server and the clients is treated as a star-shaped Bayesian network, and learning is performed on the network using approximated variational inference. We show that this method is effective on real-world federated datasets, outperforming the current state-of-the-art for federated learning.