The rise in popularity of major social media platforms have enabled people to share photos and textual information about their daily life. One of the popular topics about which information is shared is food. Since a lot of media about food are attributed to particular locations and restaurants, information like popularity of spatio-temporal popularity of various cuisines can be analysed. Tracking the popularity of food types and retail locations across space and time can also be useful for business owners and restaurant investors. In this work, we present an approach using off-the shelf machine learning techniques to identify trends and popularity of cuisine types in an area using geo-tagged data from social media, Google images and Yelp. After adjusting for time, we use the Kernel Density Estimation to get hot spots across the location and model the dependencies among food cuisines popularity using Bayesian Networks. We consider the Manhattan borough of New York City as the location for our analyses but the approach can be used for any area with social media data and information about retail businesses.

Machine and reinforcement learning (RL) are being applied to plan and control the behavior of autonomous systems interacting with the physical world -- examples include self-driving vehicles, distributed sensor networks, and agile robots. However, if machine learning is to be applied in these new settings, the resulting algorithms must come with the reliability, robustness, and safety guarantees that are hallmarks of the control theory literature, as failures could be catastrophic. Thus, as RL algorithms are increasingly and more aggressively deployed in safety critical settings, it is imperative that control theorists be part of the conversation. The goal of this tutorial paper is to provide a jumping off point for control theorists wishing to work on RL related problems by covering recent advances in bridging learning and control theory, and by placing these results within the appropriate historical context of the system identification and adaptive control literatures.

We present an approach to Bayesian Optimization that allows for robust search strategies over a large class of challenging functions. Our method is motivated by the belief that the trends useful to exploit in search of the optimum typically are a subset of the characteristics of the true objective function. At the core of our approach is the use of a Latent Gaussian Process Regression model that allows us to modulate the input domain with an orthogonal latent space. Using this latent space we can encapsulate local information about each observed data point that can be used to guide the search problem. We show experimentally that our method can be used to significantly improve performance on challenging benchmarks.

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory has been widely used in various fields of applications, because of the flexibility and effectiveness in modeling uncertainties without prior information. However, the existing evidence theory is insufficient to consider the situations where it has no capability to express the fluctuations of data at a given phase of time during their execution, and the uncertainty and imprecision which are inevitably involved in the data occur concurrently with changes to the phase or periodicity of the data. In this paper, therefore, a generalized Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is proposed. To be specific, a mass function in the generalized Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is modeled by a complex number, called as a complex basic belief assignment, which has more powerful ability to express uncertain information. Based on that, a generalized Dempster's combination rule is exploited. In contrast to the classical Dempster's combination rule, the condition in terms of the conflict coefficient between the evidences K<1 is released in the generalized Dempster's combination rule. Hence, it is more general and applicable than the classical Dempster's combination rule. When the complex mass function is degenerated from complex numbers to real numbers, the generalized Dempster's combination rule degenerates to the classical evidence theory under the condition that the conflict coefficient between the evidences K is less than 1. In a word, this generalized Dempster-Shafer evidence theory provides a promising way to model and handle more uncertain information.

This paper is a broad and accessible survey of the methods we have at our disposal for Monte Carlo gradient estimation in machine learning and across the statistical sciences: the problem of computing the gradient of an expectation of a function with respect to parameters defining the distribution that is integrated; the problem of sensitivity analysis. In machine learning research, this gradient problem lies at the core of many learning problems, in supervised, unsupervised and reinforcement learning. We will generally seek to rewrite such gradients in a form that allows for Monte Carlo estimation, allowing them to be easily and efficiently used and analysed. We explore three strategies--the pathwise, score function, and measure-valued gradient estimators-- exploring their historical developments, derivation, and underlying assumptions. We describe their use in other fields, show how they are related and can be combined, and expand on their possible generalisations. Wherever Monte Carlo gradient estimators have been derived and deployed in the past, important advances have followed. A deeper and more widely-held understanding of this problem will lead to further advances, and it is these advances that we wish to support.

When forecasting time series with a hierarchical structure, the existing state of the art is to forecast each time series independently, and, in a post-treatment step, to reconcile the time series in a way that respects the hierarchy (Hyndman et al., 2011; Wickramasuriya et al., 2018). We propose a new loss function that can be incorporated into any maximum likelihood objective with hierarchical data, resulting in reconciled estimates with confidence intervals that correctly account for additional uncertainty due to imperfect reconciliation. We evaluate our method using a non-linear model and synthetic data on a counterfactual forecasting problem, where we have access to the ground truth and contemporaneous covariates, and show that we largely improve over the existing state-of-the-art method.

The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network model is proposed to guide the learning of the autoencoder by modeling the dependence of agent reliabilities corresponding to different data samples. At the same time, it also models the social relationships between agents in the network. The proposed approach is unsupervised and is applicable when ground truth labels of events are unavailable. A variational inference method is used to jointly estimate the hidden variables in the Bayesian network and the parameters in the autoencoder. Simulations and experiments on real data suggest that the proposed method performs better than several other inference methods, including majority voting, the Bayesian Classifier Combination (BCC) method, the Community BCC method, and the recently proposed VISIT method.

Statistical Learning is the process of estimating an unknown probabilistic input-output relationship of a system using a limited number of observations; and a statistical learning machine (SLM) is the machine that learned such a process. While their roots grow deeply in Probability Theory, SLMs are ubiquitous in the modern world. Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) in military applications, Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) in medical imaging, DNA microarrays in Genomics, Optical Character Recognition (OCR), Speech Recognition (SR), spam email filtering, stock market prediction, etc., are few examples and applications for SLM; diverse fields but one theory. The field of Statistical Learning can be decomposed to two basic subfields, Design and Assessment. Three main groups of specializations-namely statisticians, engineers, and computer scientists (ordered ascendingly by programming capabilities and descendingly by mathematical rigor)-exist on the venue of this field and each takes its elephant bite. Exaggerated rigorous analysis of statisticians sometimes deprives them from considering new ML techniques and methods that, yet, have no "complete" mathematical theory. On the other hand, immoderate add-hoc simulations of computer scientists sometimes derive them towards unjustified and immature results. A prudent approach is needed that has the enough flexibility to utilize simulations and trials and errors without sacrificing any rigor. If this prudent attitude is necessary for this field it is necessary, as well, in other fields of Engineering.

Program synthesis of general-purpose source code from natural language specifications is challenging due to the need to reason about high-level patterns in the target program and low-level implementation details at the same time. In this work, we present PATOIS, a system that allows a neural program synthesizer to explicitly interleave high-level and low-level reasoning at every generation step. It accomplishes this by automatically mining common code idioms from a given corpus, incorporating them into the underlying language for neural synthesis, and training a tree-based neural synthesizer to use these idioms during code generation. We evaluate PATOIS on two complex semantic parsing datasets and show that using learned code idioms improves the synthesizer's accuracy.

This article describes the application of soft computing methods for solving the problem of locating garbage accumulation points in urban scenarios. This is a relevant problem in modern smart cities, in order to reduce negative environmental and social impacts in the waste management process, and also to optimize the available budget from the city administration to install waste bins. A specific problem model is presented, which accounts for reducing the investment costs, enhance the number of citizens served by the installed bins, and the accessibility to the system. A family of single- and multi-objective heuristics based on the PageRank method and two mutiobjective evolutionary algorithms are proposed. Experimental evaluation performed on real scenarios on the cities of Montevideo (Uruguay) and Bahia Blanca (Argentina) demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approaches. The methods allow computing plannings with different trade-off between the problem objectives. The computed results improve over the current planning in Montevideo and provide a reasonable budget cost and quality of service for Bahia Blanca.