We study the effects of approximate inference on the performance of Thompson sampling in the $k$-armed bandit problems. Thompson sampling is a successful algorithm for online decision-making but requires posterior inference, which often must be approximated in practice. We show that even small constant inference error (in $\alpha$-divergence) can lead to poor performance (linear regret) due to under-exploration (for $\alpha<1$) or over-exploration (for $\alpha>0$) by the approximation. While for $\alpha > 0$ this is unavoidable, for $\alpha \leq 0$ the regret can be improved by adding a small amount of forced exploration even when the inference error is a large constant.

In this paper, we generalize the basic notions and results of Dempster-Shafer theory from predicates to formal concepts. Results include the representation of conceptual belief functions as inner measures of suitable probability functions, and a Dempster-Shafer rule of combination on belief functions on formal concepts.

Natural language understanding (NLU) of text is a fundamental challenge in AI, and it has received significant attention throughout the history of NLP research. This primary goal has been studied under different tasks, such as Question Answering (QA) and Textual Entailment (TE). In this thesis, we investigate the NLU problem through the QA task and focus on the aspects that make it a challenge for the current state-of-the-art technology. This thesis is organized into three main parts: In the first part, we explore multiple formalisms to improve existing machine comprehension systems. We propose a formulation for abductive reasoning in natural language and show its effectiveness, especially in domains with limited training data. Additionally, to help reasoning systems cope with irrelevant or redundant information, we create a supervised approach to learn and detect the essential terms in questions. In the second part, we propose two new challenge datasets. In particular, we create two datasets of natural language questions where (i) the first one requires reasoning over multiple sentences; (ii) the second one requires temporal common sense reasoning. We hope that the two proposed datasets will motivate the field to address more complex problems. In the final part, we present the first formal framework for multi-step reasoning algorithms, in the presence of a few important properties of language use, such as incompleteness, ambiguity, etc. We apply this framework to prove fundamental limitations for reasoning algorithms. These theoretical results provide extra intuition into the existing empirical evidence in the field.

The concepts of risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and robust optimization have developed significantly over the last decade. Statistical learning community has also witnessed a rapid theoretical and applied growth by relying on these concepts. A modeling framework, called distributionally robust optimization (DRO), has recently received significant attention in both the operations research and statistical learning communities. This paper surveys main concepts and contributions to DRO, and its relationships with robust optimization, risk-aversion, chance-constrained optimization, and function regularization.

Abstract-- In this paper, we describe a framework for autonomous decision making in a dynamic and interactive environment based on cognitive hierarchy theory. We model the in - teractions between the ego agent and its operating environm ent as a two-player dynamic game, and integrate cognitive behav - ioral models, Bayesian inference, and receding-horizon op timal control to define a dynamically-evolving decision strategy for the ego agent. Simulation examples representing autonomou s vehicle control in three traffic scenarios where the autonom ous ego vehicle interacts with a human-driven vehicle are repor ted. Autonomous systems are becoming more capable, better accepted, and more commonplace. Many autonomous systems, including collaborative robots [1] and self-driv ing cars [2], operate in dynamic and interactive environments.

We consider the problem of learning causal models from observational data generated by linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models with latent variables. Without considering the effect of latent variables, one usually infers wrong causal relationships among the observed variables. Under faithfulness assumption, we propose a method to check whether there exists a causal path between any two observed variables. From this information, we can obtain the causal order among them. The next question is then whether or not the causal effects can be uniquely identified as well. It can be shown that causal effects among observed variables cannot be identified uniquely even under the assumptions of faithfulness and non-Gaussianity of exogenous noises. However, we will propose an efficient method to identify the set of all possible causal effects that are compatible with the observational data. Furthermore, we present some structural conditions on the causal graph under which we can learn causal effects among observed variables uniquely. We also provide necessary and sufficient graphical conditions for unique identification of the number of variables in the system. Experiments on synthetic data and real-world data show the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm on learning causal models.

Motivated by the need of the linking records across various databases, we propose a novel graphical model based classifier that uses a mixture of Poisson distributions with latent variables. The idea is to derive insight into each pair of hypothesis records that match by inferring its underlying latent rate of error using Bayesian Modeling techniques. The novel approach of using gamma priors for learning the latent variables along with supervised labels is unique and allows for active learning. The naive assumption is made deliberately as to the independence of the fields to propose a generalized theory for this class of problems and not to undermine the hierarchical dependencies that could be present in different scenarios. This classifier is able to work with sparse and streaming data. The application to record linkage is able to meet several challenges of sparsity, data streams and varying nature of the data-sets.

Variational inference is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. Meanwhile, a few recent works have provided theoretical justification and new insights on deep neural networks for estimating smooth functions in usual settings such as nonparametric regression. In this paper, we show that variational inference for sparse deep learning retains the same generalization properties than exact Bayesian inference. In particular, we highlight the connection between estimation and approximation theories via the classical bias-variance trade-off and show that it leads to near-minimax rates of convergence for H\"older smooth functions. Additionally, we show that the model selection framework over the neural network architecture via ELBO maximization does not overfit and adaptively achieves the optimal rate of convergence.

High entropy alloys (HEAs) have been increasingly attractive as promising next-generation materials due to their various excellent properties. It's necessary to essentially characterize the degree of chemical ordering and identify order-disorder transitions through efficient simulation and modeling of thermodynamics. In this study, a robust data-driven framework based on Bayesian approaches is proposed and demonstrated on the accurate and efficient prediction of configurational energy of high entropy alloys. The proposed effective pair interaction (EPI) model with ensemble sampling is used to map the configuration and its corresponding energy. The US Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the US government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for US government purposes. Compared with the arbitrary determination of model complexity, we further conduct a physical feature selection to identify the truncation of coordination shells in EPI model using Bayesian information criterion. The results achieve efficient and robust performance in predicting the configurational energy, particularly given small data. The developed methodology is applied to study a series of refractory HEAs, i.e. NbMoTaW, NbMoTaWV and NbMoTaWTi where it is demonstrated how dataset size affects the confidence we can place in statistical estimates of configurational energy when data are sparse. Introduction As one of the typical multicomponent alloys, high entropy alloys (HEAs) consisting of four or more principal elements have been widely studied due to their exceptional mechanical properties [1, 2, 3, 4].

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of uncertainty that can enhance decision making, agent exploration and prediction fairness. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable Bayesian inference by generating samples from the posterior distribution over model parameters. Despite the theoretical advantages of Bayesian inference and the similarity between MCMC and optimization methods, the performance of sampling methods has so far lagged behind optimization methods for large scale deep learning tasks. We aim to fill this gap and introduce ATMC, an adaptive noise MCMC algorithm that estimates and is able to sample from the posterior of a neural network. ATMC dynamically adjusts the amount of momentum and noise applied to each parameter update in order to compensate for the use of stochastic gradients. We use a ResNet architecture without batch normalization to test ATMC on the Cifar10 benchmark and the large scale ImageNet benchmark and show that, despite the absence of batch normalization, ATMC outperforms a strong optimization baseline in terms of both classification accuracy and test log-likelihood. We show that ATMC is intrinsically robust to overfitting on the training data and that ATMC provides a better calibrated measure of uncertainty compared to the optimization baseline.