Weighted model integration (WMI) is a very appealing framework for probabilistic inference: it allows to express the complex dependencies of real-world hybrid scenarios where variables are heterogeneous in nature (both continuous and discrete) via the language of Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT); as well as computing probabilistic queries with arbitrarily complex logical constraints. Recent work has shown WMI inference to be reducible to a model integration (MI) problem, under some assumptions, thus effectively allowing hybrid probabilistic reasoning by volume computations. In this paper, we introduce a novel formulation of MI via a message passing scheme that allows to efficiently compute the marginal densities and statistical moments of all the variables in linear time. As such, we are able to amortize inference for arbitrarily rich MI queries when they conform to the problem structure, here represented as the primal graph associated to the SMT formula. Furthermore, we theoretically trace the tractability boundaries of exact MI. Indeed, we prove that in terms of the structural requirements on the primal graph that make our MI algorithm tractable - bounding its diameter and treewidth - the bounds are not only sufficient, but necessary for tractable inference via MI.

The Mind is Flat: The Illusion of Mental Depth and the Improvised Mind.

Whenever a social media user decides to share a story, she is typically pleased to receive likes, comments, shares, or, more generally, feedback from her followers. As a result, she may feel compelled to use the feedback she receives to (re-)estimate her followers' preferences and decides which stories to share next to receive more (positive) feedback. Under which conditions can she succeed? In this work, we first look into this problem from a theoretical perspective and then provide a set of practical algorithms to identify and characterize such behavior in social media. More specifically, we address the above problem from the viewpoint of sequential decision making and utility maximization. For a wide variety of utility functions, we first show that, to succeed, a user needs to actively trade off exploitation-- sharing stories which lead to more (positive) feedback--and exploration-- sharing stories to learn about her followers' preferences. However, exploration is not necessary if a user utilizes the feedback her followers provide to other users in addition to the feedback she receives. Then, we develop a utility estimation framework for observation data, which relies on statistical hypothesis testing to determine whether a user utilizes the feedback she receives from each of her followers to decide what to post next. Experiments on synthetic data illustrate our theoretical findings and show that our estimation framework is able to accurately recover users' underlying utility functions. Experiments on several real datasets gathered from Twitter and Reddit reveal that up to 82% (43%) of the Twitter (Reddit) users in our datasets do use the feedback they receive to decide what to post next.

Neural networks are popular models for regression. They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good performance in many applications, it cannot easily output an estimate of the uncertainty in the predictions made. Measuring this uncertainty in the predictions of machine learning models is a critical aspect with important applications. Uncertainty estimates can be obtained by following a Bayesian approach in which a posterior distribution of the model parameters is computed. The posterior distribution summarizes which parameter values are compatible with the data. Typically,this posterior distribution is intractable and has to be approximated. Several approaches have been considered for solving this problem. We propose here a general method for approximate Bayesian inference based on minimizing{\alpha}-divergences which allows for flexible approximate distributions. The method is evaluated in the context of Bayesian neural networks for regression on extensive experiments. The results show that it often gives better performance in terms of the test log-likelihood and sometimes in terms of the squared error.

In medical decision making, we have to choose among several expensive diagnostic tests such that the certainty about a patient's health is maximized while remaining within the bounds of resources like time and money. The expected increase in certainty in the patient's condition due to performing a test is called the value of information (VoI) for that test. In general, VoI relates to acquiring additional information to improve decision-making based on probabilistic reasoning in an uncertain system. This paper presents a framework for acquiring information based on VoI in uncertain systems modeled as Probabilistic Logic Programs (PLPs). Optimal decision-making in uncertain systems modeled as PLPs have already been studied before. But, acquiring additional information to further improve the results of making the optimal decision has remained open in this context. We model decision-making in an uncertain system with a PLP and a set of top-level queries, with a set of utility measures over the distributions of these queries. The PLP is annotated with a set of atoms labeled as "observable"; in the medical diagnosis example, the observable atoms will be results of diagnostic tests. Each observable atom has an associated cost. This setting of optimally selecting observations based on VoI is more general than that considered by any prior work. Given a limited budget, optimally choosing observable atoms based on VoI is intractable in general. We give a greedy algorithm for constructing a "conditional plan" of observations: a schedule where the selection of what atom to observe next depends on earlier observations. We show that, preempting the algorithm anytime before completion provides a usable result, the result improves over time, and, in the absence of a well-defined budget, converges to the optimal solution.

Open-domain dialog generation is a challenging problem; maximum likelihood training can lead to repetitive outputs, models have difficulty tracking long-term conversational goals, and training on standard movie or online datasets may lead to the generation of inappropriate, biased, or offensive text. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a powerful framework that could potentially address these issues, for example by allowing a dialog model to optimize for reducing toxicity and repetitiveness. However, previous approaches which apply RL to open-domain dialog generation do so at the word level, making it difficult for the model to learn proper credit assignment for long-term conversational rewards. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to hierarchical reinforcement learning, VHRL, which uses policy gradients to tune the utterance-level embedding of a variational sequence model. This hierarchical approach provides greater flexibility for learning long-term, conversational rewards. We use self-play and RL to optimize for a set of human-centered conversation metrics, and show that our approach provides significant improvements -- in terms of both human evaluation and automatic metrics -- over state-of-the-art dialog models, including Transformers.

This paper proposes a vision-based fire and smoke segmentation system which use spatial, temporal and motion information to extract the desired regions from the video frames. The fusion of information is done using multiple features such as optical flow, divergence and intensity values. These features extracted from the images are used to segment the pixels into different classes in an unsupervised way. A comparative analysis is done by using multiple clustering algorithms for segmentation. Here the Markov Random Field performs more accurately than other segmentation algorithms since it characterizes the spatial interactions of pixels using a finite number of parameters. It builds a probabilistic image model that selects the most likely labeling using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. This unsupervised approach is tested on various images and achieves a frame-wise fire detection rate of 95.39%. Hence this method can be used for early detection of fire in real-time and it can be incorporated into an indoor or outdoor surveillance system.

We investigate the problem of machine learning with mislabeled training data. We try to make the effects of mislabeled training better understood through analysis of the basic model and equations that characterize the problem. This includes results about the ability of the noisy model to make the same decisions as the clean model and the effects of noise on model performance. In addition to providing better insights we also are able to show that the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimate of the parameters of the noisy model determine those of the clean model. This property is obtained through the use of the ML invariance property and leads to an approach to developing a classifier when training has been mislabeled: namely train the classifier on noisy data and adjust the decision threshold based on the noise levels and/or class priors. We show how our approach to mislabeled training works with multi-layered perceptrons (MLPs).

Improving the sample efficiency in reinforcement learning has been a long-standing research problem. In this work, we aim to reduce the sample complexity of existing policy gradient methods. We propose a novel policy gradient algorithm called SRVR-PG, which only requires $O(1/\epsilon^{3/2})$ episodes to find an $\epsilon$-approximate stationary point of the nonconcave performance function $J(\boldsymbol{\theta})$ (i.e., $\boldsymbol{\theta}$ such that $\|\nabla J(\boldsymbol{\theta})\|_2^2\leq\epsilon$). This sample complexity improves the best known result $O(1/\epsilon^{5/3})$ for policy gradient algorithms by a factor of $O(1/\epsilon^{1/6})$. In addition, we also propose a variant of SRVR-PG with parameter exploration, which explores the initial policy parameter from a prior probability distribution. We conduct numerical experiments on classic control problems in reinforcement learning to validate the performance of our proposed algorithms.

The main purposes of this study are to distinguish the trends of research in publication exits for the utilisations of the fuzzy expert and knowledge-based systems that is done based on the classification of studies in the last decade. The present investigation covers 60 articles from related scholastic journals, International conference proceedings and some major literature review papers. Our outcomes reveal an upward trend in the up-to-date publications number, that is evidence of growing notoriety on the various applications of fuzzy expert systems. This raise in the reports is mainly in the medical neuro-fuzzy and fuzzy expert systems. Moreover, another most critical observation is that many modern industrial applications are extended, employing knowledge-based systems by extracting the experts' knowledge.