We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to the first fully continuous optimization for score-based learning of DAG models parametrized by a linear structural equation model (SEM). We extend this algebraic characterization to nonparametric SEM by leveraging nonparametric sparsity based on partial derivatives, resulting in a continuous optimization problem that can be applied to a variety of nonparametric and semiparametric models including GLMs, additive noise models, and index models as special cases. We also explore the use of neural networks and orthogonal basis expansions to model nonlinearities for general nonparametric models. Extensive empirical study confirms the necessity of nonlinear dependency and the advantage of continuous optimization for score-based learning.

T HE D IFFERENTIABLEC ROSS-E NTROPYM ETHOD Brandon Amos 1 Denis Y arats 12 1 Facebook AI Research 2 New Y ork University A BSTRACT We study the Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) for the non-convex optimization of a continuous and parameterized objective function and introduce a differentiable variant (DCEM) that enables us to differentiate the output of CEM with respect to the objective function's parameters. In the machine learning setting this brings CEM inside of the end-to-end learning pipeline where this has otherwise been impossible. We show applications in a synthetic energy-based structured prediction task and in non-convex continuous control. In this paper we focus on the setting of optimizing an unconstrained, non-convex, and continuous objective function f θ(x): R n Θ R as ˆ x arg min x f θ(x), where f is parameterized by θ Θ and has inputs x R n . If it exists, some (sub-)derivative θˆ x is useful in the machine learning setting to make the output of the optimization procedure end-to-end learnable. For example, θ could parameterize a predictive model that is generating potential outcomes conditional on x happening that you want to optimize over. End-to-end learning in these settings can be done by defining a loss function L on top of ˆ x and taking gradient steps θL . If f θ were convex this gradient is easy to analyze and compute when it exists and is unique (Gould et al., 2016; Johnson et al., 2016; Amos et al., 2017; Amos & Kolter, 2017). Unfortunately analyzing and computing a "derivative" through the non-convex arg min here is not as easy and is challenging in theory and practice. No such derivative may exist in theory, it might not be unique, and even if it uniquely exists, the numerical solver being used to compute the solution may not find a global or even local optimum of f . One promising direction to sidestep these issues is to approximate the arg min operation with an explicit optimization procedure that is interpreted as just another compute graph and unrolled through.

We present the DualSMC network that solves continuous POMDPs by learning belief representations and then leveraging them for planning. It is based on the fact that filtering, i.e. state estimation, and planning can be viewed as two related sequential Monte Carlo processes, with one in the belief space and the other in the future planning trajectory space. In particular, we first introduce a novel particle filter network that makes better use of the adversarial relationship between the proposer model and the observation model. We then introduce a new planning algorithm over the belief representations, which learns uncertainty-dependent policies. We allow these two parts to be trained jointly with each other. We testify the effectiveness of our approach on three continuous control and planning tasks: the floor positioning, the 3D light-dark navigation, and a modified Reacher task.

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.

The data deluge comes with high demands for data labeling. Crowdsourcing (or, more generally, ensemble learning) techniques aim to produce accurate labels via integrating noisy, non-expert labeling from annotators. The classic Dawid-Skene estimator and its accompanying expectation maximization (EM) algorithm have been widely used, but the theoretical properties are not fully understood. Tensor methods were proposed to guarantee identification of the Dawid-Skene model, but the sample complexity is a hurdle for applying such approaches---since the tensor methods hinge on the availability of third-order statistics that are hard to reliably estimate given limited data. In this paper, we propose a framework using pairwise co-occurrences of the annotator responses, which naturally admits lower sample complexity. We show that the approach can identify the Dawid-Skene model under realistic conditions. We propose an algebraic algorithm reminiscent of convex geometry-based structured matrix factorization to solve the model identification problem efficiently, and an identifiability-enhanced algorithm for handling more challenging and critical scenarios. Experiments show that the proposed algorithms outperform the state-of-art algorithms under a variety of scenarios.

The problem of belief tracking in the presence of stochastic actions and observations is pervasive and yet computationally intractable. In this work we show however that probabilistic beliefs can be maintained in factored form exactly and efficiently across a number of causally closed beams, when the state variables that appear in more than one beam obey a form of backward determinism . Since computing marginals from the factors is still computationally intractable in general, and variables appearing in several beams are not always backward-deterministic, the basic formulation is extended with two approximations: forms of belief propagation for computing marginals from factors, and sampling of non-backward-deterministic variables for making such variables backward-deterministic given their sampled history. Unlike, Rao-Blackwellized particle-filtering, the sampling is not used for making inference tractable but for making the factorization sound . The resulting algorithm involves sampling and belief propagation or just one of them as determined by the structure of the model.

Valuation-Based System can represent knowledge in different domains including probability theory, Dempster-Shafer theory and possibility theory. More recent studies show that the framework of VBS is also appropriate for representing and solving Bayesian decision problems and optimization problems. In this paper after introducing the valuation based system (VBS) framework, we present Markov-like properties of VBS and a method for resolving queries to VBS. 1 Introduction Though graphical representation of a domain knowledge has quite long history, its full potential has not been recognized until recently. We should mention here pioneering works of J. Pearl, reported in his monography published in 1988 [ 1988] . Further development in this domain has been achieved by Shenoy and Shafer [ 1986 ] who adopted a method used in solving nonserial dynamic programming problems [ Bertele & Brioschi, 1972 ] . This trick proved to be very fruitful and gave growth to a unified framework for uncertainty representation and reasoning, called V aluation-Based System, VBS for short [ Shenoy, 1989 ] .

Over the last decades, the challenges in applied regression and in predictive modeling have been changing considerably: (1) More flexible model specifications are needed as big(ger) data become available, facilitated by more powerful computing infrastructure. (2) Full probabilistic modeling rather than predicting just means or expectations is crucial in many applications. (3) Interest in Bayesian inference has been increasing both as an appealing framework for regularizing or penalizing model estimation as well as a natural alternative to classical frequentist inference. However, while there has been a lot of research in all three areas, also leading to associated software packages, a modular software implementation that allows to easily combine all three aspects has not yet been available. For filling this gap, the R package bamlss is introduced for Bayesian additive models for location, scale, and shape (and beyond). At the core of the package are algorithms for highly-efficient Bayesian estimation and inference that can be applied to generalized additive models (GAMs) or generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS), also known as distributional regression. However, its building blocks are designed as "Lego bricks" encompassing various distributions (exponential family, Cox, joint models, ...), regression terms (linear, splines, random effects, tensor products, spatial fields, ...), and estimators (MCMC, backfitting, gradient boosting, lasso, ...). It is demonstrated how these can be easily recombined to make classical models more flexible or create new custom models for specific modeling challenges.

We present a novel blind source separation (BSS) method, called information geometric blind source separation (IGBSS). Our formulation is based on the information geometric log-linear model equipped with a hierarchically structured sample space, which has theoretical guarantees to uniquely recover a set of source signals by minimizing the KL divergence from a set of mixed signals. Source signals, received signals, and mixing matrices are realized as different layers in our hierarchical sample space. Our empirical results have demonstrated on images that our approach is superior to current state-of-the-art techniques and is able to separate signals with complex interactions.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art accuracy performance in many tasks. However, recent works have pointed out that the outputs provided by these models are not well-calibrated, seriously limiting their use in critical decision scenarios. In this work, we propose to use a decoupled Bayesian stage, implemented with a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), to map the uncalibrated probabilities provided by a DNN to calibrated ones, consistently improving calibration. Our results evidence that incorporating uncertainty provides more reliable probabilistic models, a critical condition for achieving good calibration. We report a generous collection of experimental results using high-accuracy DNNs in standardized image classification benchmarks, showing the good performance, flexibility and robust behavior of our approach with respect to several state-of-the-art calibration methods. Code for reproducibility is provided.