In this paper, well-calibrated model uncertainty is obtained by using temperature scaling together with Monte Carlo dropout as approximation to Bayesian inference. The proposed approach can easily be derived from frequentist temperature scaling and yields well-calibrated model uncertainty as well as softmax likelihood.

Answer set programming (ASP) is a declarative problem solvi ng paradigm for nonmonotonic reasoning. ASP allows intuitiive represe ntation of combinatorial search and optimization problems and is widely use d for knowledge representation and reasoning in various applications like plan generation, natural language processing etc [14, 15]. But ASP can not dea l with fuzzy information, where attributes and truth degrees lie in a con tinuous range of values. Fuzzy Answer Set Programming (F ASP) is proposed as a n extension of ASP that allows graded truth values from the interval [0,1 ]. Theoretical advancement of F ASP is remarkable [18, 32, 9, 22, 23]. Howeve r, this approach performs reasoning with absolutely certain but vagu e information and doesn't involve reasoning with uncertain information.

We address the problem of Any-Code Generation (AnyGen) - generating code without any restriction on the vocabulary or structure. The state-of-the-art in this problem is the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) approach, which treats code as a sequence and does not leverage any structural information. We introduce a new approach to AnyGen that leverages the strict syntax of programming languages to model a code snippet as a tree - structural language modeling (SLM). SLM estimates the probability of the program's abstract syntax tree (AST) by decomposing it into a product of conditional probabilities over its nodes. We present a neural model that computes these conditional probabilities by considering all AST paths leading to a target node. Unlike previous structural techniques that have severely restricted the kinds of expressions that can be generated, our approach can generate arbitrary expressions in any programming language. Our model significantly outperforms both seq2seq and a variety of existing structured approaches in generating Java and C# code. We make our code, datasets, and models available online.

A BSTRACT It has been shown that instead of learning actual object features, deep networks tend to exploit non-robust (spurious) discriminative features that are shared between training and test sets. Therefore, while they achieve state of the art performance on such test sets, they achieve poor generalization on out of distribution (OOD) samples where the IID (independent, identical distribution) assumption breaks and the distribution of non-robust features shifts. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, we show that this happens because maximum likelihood training (without appropriate regularization) leads the model to depend on all the correlations (including spurious ones) present between inputs and targets in the dataset. We then show evidence that the information bottleneck (IB) principle can address this problem. To do so, we propose a regularization approach based on IB, called Entropy Penalty, that reduces the model's dependence on spurious features-features corresponding to such spurious correlations. This allows deep networks trained with Entropy Penalty to generalize well even under distribution shift of spurious features. As a controlled test-bed for evaluating our claim, we train deep networks with Entropy Penalty on a colored MNIST (C-MNIST) dataset and show that it is able to generalize well on vanilla MNIST, MNIST -M and SVHN datasets in addition to an OOD version of C-MNIST itself. The baseline regularization methods we compare against fail to generalize on this test-bed. An example of non-robust feature is the presence of desert in camel images, which may correlate well with this object class. More realistically, models can learn to exploit the abundance of input-target correlations present in datasets, not all of which may be invariant under different environments. Interestingly, such classifiers can achieve good performance on test sets which share the same non-robust features. However, due to this exploitation, these classifiers perform poorly under distribution shift (Geirhos et al., 2018a; Hendrycks & Dietterich, 2019) because it violates the IID assumption which is the foundation of existing generalization theory (Bartlett & Mendelson, 2002; McAllester, 1999b;a).

Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in nature and engineering. A case in point is a class of neural networks in the infinite-width limit, whose priors correspond to Gaussian processes. Here we perturbatively extend this correspondence to finite-width neural networks, yielding non-Gaussian processes as priors. The methodology developed herein allows us to track the flow of preactivation distributions by progressively integrating out random variables from lower to higher layers, reminiscent of renormalization-group flow. We further develop a perturbative procedure to perform Bayesian inference with weakly non-Gaussian priors.

A BSTRACT We argue that flow-based density models based on continuous bijections are limited in their ability to learn target distributions with complicated topologies, and propose localised generative flows (LGFs) to address this problem. LGFs are composed of stacked continuous mixtures of bijections, which enables each bijection to learn a local region of the target rather than its entirety. Our method is a generalisation of existing flow-based methods, which can be used without modification as the basis for an LGF model. Unlike normalising flows, LGFs do not permit exact computation of log likelihoods, but we propose a simple variational scheme that performs well in practice. We show empirically that LGFs yield improved performance across a variety of density estimation tasks. 1 I NTRODUCTION Flow-based generative models, often referred to as normalising flows, have become popular methods for density estimation because of their flexibility, expressiveness, and tractable likelihoods. Given the problem of learning an unknown target density p null X on a data space X, normalising flows model p null X as the marginal of X obtained by the generative process Z p Z, X: g 1 ( Z), (1) where p Z is a prior density on a space Z, and g: X Z is a bijection. The parameters of g can be learned via maximum likelihood given i.i.d. To be effective, a normalising flow model must specify an expressive family of bijections with tractable Jacobians. Affine coupling layers (Dinh et al., 2014; 2016), autoregressive transformations (Germain et al., 2015; Papamakarios et al., 2017), ODEbased transformations (Grathwohl et al., 2018), and invertible ResNet blocks (Behrmann et al., 2019) are all examples of such bijections that can be composed to produce complicated flows. These models have demonstrated significant promise in their ability to model complex datasets (Papamakarios et al., 2017) and to synthesise novel data points (Kingma & Dhariwal, 2018). However, in all these cases, g is continuous in x .

Just about everyone knows that correlation is not causation, but what exactly is causation? Judea Pearl has spent over two decades trying to u nderstand causation, to define it, and to develop techniques for inferring it. This work is having a great impact, and will arguably ultimately have as great an impact as Pearl's earlier work on Bayesian networks. Pearl's landmark book Causality was a technical introduction to his work on the topic. The Book of Why is meant to be a more popular introduction to the work, as well as documenting some of Pearl's personal journey throug h causation.

Despite significant recent progress, machine vision systems lag considerably behind their biological counterparts in performance, scalability, and robustness. A distinctive hallmark of the brain is its ability to automatically discover and model objects, at multiscale resolutions, from repeated exposures to unlabeled contextual data and then to be able to robustly detect the learned objects under various nonideal circumstances, such as partial occlusion and different view angles. Replication of such capabilities in a machine would require three key ingredients: (i) access to large-scale perceptual data of the kind that humans experience, (ii) flexible representations of objects, and (iii) an efficient unsupervised learning algorithm. The Internet fortunately provides unprecedented access to vast amounts of visual data. This paper leverages the availability of such data to develop a scalable framework for unsupervised learning of object prototypes--brain-inspired flexible, scale, and shift invariant representations of deformable objects (e.g., humans, motorcycles, cars, airplanes) comprised of parts, their different configurations and views, and their spatial relationships. Computationally, the object prototypes are represented as geometric associative networks using probabilistic constructs such as Markov random fields. We apply our framework to various datasets and show that our approach is computationally scalable and can construct accurate and operational part-aware object models much more efficiently than in much of the recent computer vision literature. We also present efficient algorithms for detection and localization in new scenes of objects and their partial views.

Graph embeddings, a class of dimensionality reduction techniques designed for relational data, have proven useful in exploring and modeling network structure. Most dimensionality reduction methods allow out-of-sample extensions, by which an embedding can be applied to observations not present in the training set. Applied to graphs, the out-of-sample extension problem concerns how to compute the embedding of a vertex that is added to the graph after an embedding has already been computed. In this paper, we consider the out-of-sample extension problem for two graph embedding procedures: the adjacency spectral embedding and the Laplacian spectral embedding. In both cases, we prove that when the underlying graph is generated according to a latent space model called the random dot product graph, which includes the popular stochastic block model as a special case, an out-of-sample extension based on a least-squares objective obeys a central limit theorem about the true latent position of the out-of-sample vertex. In addition, we prove a concentration inequality for the out-of-sample extension of the adjacency spectral embedding based on a maximum-likelihood objective. Our results also yield a convenient framework in which to analyze trade-offs between estimation accuracy and computational expense, which we explore briefly.

In some misspecified settings, the posterior distribution in Bayesian statistics may lead to inconsistent estimates. To fix this issue, it has been suggested to replace the likelihood by a pseudo-likelihood, that is the exponential of a loss function enjoying suitable robustness properties. In this paper, we build a pseudo-likelihood based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy, defined via an embedding of probability distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that this MMD-Bayes posterior is consistent and robust to model misspecification. As the posterior obtained in this way might be intractable, we also prove that reasonable variational approximations of this posterior enjoy the same properties. We provide details on a stochastic gradient algorithm to compute these variational approximations. Numerical simulations indeed suggest that our estimator is more robust to misspecification than the ones based on the likelihood. Keywords: Maximum Mean Discrepancy, Robust estimation, Variational inference.