A BSTRACT We argue that flow-based density models based on continuous bijections are limited in their ability to learn target distributions with complicated topologies, and propose localised generative flows (LGFs) to address this problem. LGFs are composed of stacked continuous mixtures of bijections, which enables each bijection to learn a local region of the target rather than its entirety. Our method is a generalisation of existing flow-based methods, which can be used without modification as the basis for an LGF model. Unlike normalising flows, LGFs do not permit exact computation of log likelihoods, but we propose a simple variational scheme that performs well in practice. We show empirically that LGFs yield improved performance across a variety of density estimation tasks. 1 I NTRODUCTION Flow-based generative models, often referred to as normalising flows, have become popular methods for density estimation because of their flexibility, expressiveness, and tractable likelihoods. Given the problem of learning an unknown target density p null X on a data space X, normalising flows model p null X as the marginal of X obtained by the generative process Z p Z, X: g 1 ( Z), (1) where p Z is a prior density on a space Z, and g: X Z is a bijection. The parameters of g can be learned via maximum likelihood given i.i.d. To be effective, a normalising flow model must specify an expressive family of bijections with tractable Jacobians. Affine coupling layers (Dinh et al., 2014; 2016), autoregressive transformations (Germain et al., 2015; Papamakarios et al., 2017), ODEbased transformations (Grathwohl et al., 2018), and invertible ResNet blocks (Behrmann et al., 2019) are all examples of such bijections that can be composed to produce complicated flows. These models have demonstrated significant promise in their ability to model complex datasets (Papamakarios et al., 2017) and to synthesise novel data points (Kingma & Dhariwal, 2018). However, in all these cases, g is continuous in x .

Just about everyone knows that correlation is not causation, but what exactly is causation? Judea Pearl has spent over two decades trying to u nderstand causation, to define it, and to develop techniques for inferring it. This work is having a great impact, and will arguably ultimately have as great an impact as Pearl's earlier work on Bayesian networks. Pearl's landmark book Causality was a technical introduction to his work on the topic. The Book of Why is meant to be a more popular introduction to the work, as well as documenting some of Pearl's personal journey throug h causation.

Despite significant recent progress, machine vision systems lag considerably behind their biological counterparts in performance, scalability, and robustness. A distinctive hallmark of the brain is its ability to automatically discover and model objects, at multiscale resolutions, from repeated exposures to unlabeled contextual data and then to be able to robustly detect the learned objects under various nonideal circumstances, such as partial occlusion and different view angles. Replication of such capabilities in a machine would require three key ingredients: (i) access to large-scale perceptual data of the kind that humans experience, (ii) flexible representations of objects, and (iii) an efficient unsupervised learning algorithm. The Internet fortunately provides unprecedented access to vast amounts of visual data. This paper leverages the availability of such data to develop a scalable framework for unsupervised learning of object prototypes--brain-inspired flexible, scale, and shift invariant representations of deformable objects (e.g., humans, motorcycles, cars, airplanes) comprised of parts, their different configurations and views, and their spatial relationships. Computationally, the object prototypes are represented as geometric associative networks using probabilistic constructs such as Markov random fields. We apply our framework to various datasets and show that our approach is computationally scalable and can construct accurate and operational part-aware object models much more efficiently than in much of the recent computer vision literature. We also present efficient algorithms for detection and localization in new scenes of objects and their partial views.

Graph embeddings, a class of dimensionality reduction techniques designed for relational data, have proven useful in exploring and modeling network structure. Most dimensionality reduction methods allow out-of-sample extensions, by which an embedding can be applied to observations not present in the training set. Applied to graphs, the out-of-sample extension problem concerns how to compute the embedding of a vertex that is added to the graph after an embedding has already been computed. In this paper, we consider the out-of-sample extension problem for two graph embedding procedures: the adjacency spectral embedding and the Laplacian spectral embedding. In both cases, we prove that when the underlying graph is generated according to a latent space model called the random dot product graph, which includes the popular stochastic block model as a special case, an out-of-sample extension based on a least-squares objective obeys a central limit theorem about the true latent position of the out-of-sample vertex. In addition, we prove a concentration inequality for the out-of-sample extension of the adjacency spectral embedding based on a maximum-likelihood objective. Our results also yield a convenient framework in which to analyze trade-offs between estimation accuracy and computational expense, which we explore briefly.

In some misspecified settings, the posterior distribution in Bayesian statistics may lead to inconsistent estimates. To fix this issue, it has been suggested to replace the likelihood by a pseudo-likelihood, that is the exponential of a loss function enjoying suitable robustness properties. In this paper, we build a pseudo-likelihood based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy, defined via an embedding of probability distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We show that this MMD-Bayes posterior is consistent and robust to model misspecification. As the posterior obtained in this way might be intractable, we also prove that reasonable variational approximations of this posterior enjoy the same properties. We provide details on a stochastic gradient algorithm to compute these variational approximations. Numerical simulations indeed suggest that our estimator is more robust to misspecification than the ones based on the likelihood. Keywords: Maximum Mean Discrepancy, Robust estimation, Variational inference.

We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to the first fully continuous optimization for score-based learning of DAG models parametrized by a linear structural equation model (SEM). We extend this algebraic characterization to nonparametric SEM by leveraging nonparametric sparsity based on partial derivatives, resulting in a continuous optimization problem that can be applied to a variety of nonparametric and semiparametric models including GLMs, additive noise models, and index models as special cases. We also explore the use of neural networks and orthogonal basis expansions to model nonlinearities for general nonparametric models. Extensive empirical study confirms the necessity of nonlinear dependency and the advantage of continuous optimization for score-based learning.

T HE D IFFERENTIABLEC ROSS-E NTROPYM ETHOD Brandon Amos 1 Denis Y arats 12 1 Facebook AI Research 2 New Y ork University A BSTRACT We study the Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) for the non-convex optimization of a continuous and parameterized objective function and introduce a differentiable variant (DCEM) that enables us to differentiate the output of CEM with respect to the objective function's parameters. In the machine learning setting this brings CEM inside of the end-to-end learning pipeline where this has otherwise been impossible. We show applications in a synthetic energy-based structured prediction task and in non-convex continuous control. In this paper we focus on the setting of optimizing an unconstrained, non-convex, and continuous objective function f θ(x): R n Θ R as ˆ x arg min x f θ(x), where f is parameterized by θ Θ and has inputs x R n . If it exists, some (sub-)derivative θˆ x is useful in the machine learning setting to make the output of the optimization procedure end-to-end learnable. For example, θ could parameterize a predictive model that is generating potential outcomes conditional on x happening that you want to optimize over. End-to-end learning in these settings can be done by defining a loss function L on top of ˆ x and taking gradient steps θL . If f θ were convex this gradient is easy to analyze and compute when it exists and is unique (Gould et al., 2016; Johnson et al., 2016; Amos et al., 2017; Amos & Kolter, 2017). Unfortunately analyzing and computing a "derivative" through the non-convex arg min here is not as easy and is challenging in theory and practice. No such derivative may exist in theory, it might not be unique, and even if it uniquely exists, the numerical solver being used to compute the solution may not find a global or even local optimum of f . One promising direction to sidestep these issues is to approximate the arg min operation with an explicit optimization procedure that is interpreted as just another compute graph and unrolled through.

We present the DualSMC network that solves continuous POMDPs by learning belief representations and then leveraging them for planning. It is based on the fact that filtering, i.e. state estimation, and planning can be viewed as two related sequential Monte Carlo processes, with one in the belief space and the other in the future planning trajectory space. In particular, we first introduce a novel particle filter network that makes better use of the adversarial relationship between the proposer model and the observation model. We then introduce a new planning algorithm over the belief representations, which learns uncertainty-dependent policies. We allow these two parts to be trained jointly with each other. We testify the effectiveness of our approach on three continuous control and planning tasks: the floor positioning, the 3D light-dark navigation, and a modified Reacher task.

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.

The data deluge comes with high demands for data labeling. Crowdsourcing (or, more generally, ensemble learning) techniques aim to produce accurate labels via integrating noisy, non-expert labeling from annotators. The classic Dawid-Skene estimator and its accompanying expectation maximization (EM) algorithm have been widely used, but the theoretical properties are not fully understood. Tensor methods were proposed to guarantee identification of the Dawid-Skene model, but the sample complexity is a hurdle for applying such approaches---since the tensor methods hinge on the availability of third-order statistics that are hard to reliably estimate given limited data. In this paper, we propose a framework using pairwise co-occurrences of the annotator responses, which naturally admits lower sample complexity. We show that the approach can identify the Dawid-Skene model under realistic conditions. We propose an algebraic algorithm reminiscent of convex geometry-based structured matrix factorization to solve the model identification problem efficiently, and an identifiability-enhanced algorithm for handling more challenging and critical scenarios. Experiments show that the proposed algorithms outperform the state-of-art algorithms under a variety of scenarios.