Recent advances in data-driven models for grounded language understanding have enabled robots to interpret increasingly complex instructions. Two fundamental limitations of these methods are that most require a full model of the environment to be known a priori, and they attempt to reason over a world representation that is flat and unnecessarily detailed, which limits scalability. Recent semantic mapping methods address partial observability by exploiting language as a sensor to infer a distribution over topological, metric and semantic properties of the environment. However, maintaining a distribution over highly detailed maps that can support grounding of diverse instructions is computationally expensive and hinders real-time human-robot collaboration. We propose a novel framework that learns to adapt perception according to the task in order to maintain compact distributions over semantic maps. Experiments with a mobile manipulator demonstrate more efficient instruction following in a priori unknown environments.

Beating humans in a penny-matching game by leveraging cognitive hierarchy theory and Bayesian learning Ran Tian, Nan Li, Ilya Kolmanovsky, and Anouck Girard Abstract -- It is a longstanding goal of artificial intelligence (AI) to be superior to human beings in decision making. Games are suitable for testing AI capabilities of making good decisions in non-numerical tasks. In this paper, we develop a new AI algorithm to play the penny-matching game considered in Shannon's "mind-reading machine" (1953) against human players. In particular, we exploit cognitive hierarchy theory and Bayesian learning techniques to continually evolve a model for predicting human player decisions, and let the AI player make decisions according to the model predictions to pursue the best chance of winning. Experimental results show that our AI algorithm beats 27 out of 30 volunteer human players. I NTRODUCTION Developing artificial intelligence (AI) to beat humans in strategic games has been drawing attention/interest of researchers for decades [1]-[10].

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular. 1 Introduction Machine learning is essentially concerned with extracting models from data and using these models to make predictions.

We propose an efficient inference method for switching nonlinear dynamical systems. The key idea is to learn an inference network which can be used as a proposal distribution for the continuous latent variables, while performing exact marginalization of the discrete latent variables. This allows us to use the reparameterization trick, and apply end-to-end training with stochastic gradient descent. We show that the proposed method can successfully segment time series data (including videos) into meaningful "regimes", by using the piece-wise nonlinear dynamics.

Certain biological neurons demonstrate a remarkable capability to optimally compress the history of sensory inputs while being maximally informative about the future. In this work, we investigate if the same can be said of artificial neurons in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained with maximum likelihood. In experiments on two datasets, restorative Brownian motion and a hand-drawn sketch dataset, we find that RNNs are sub-optimal in the information plane. Instead of optimally compressing past information, they extract additional information that is not relevant for predicting the future. Overcoming this limitation may require alternative training procedures and architectures, or objectives beyond maximum likelihood estimation. Remembering past events is a critical component of predicting the future and acting in the world. An information-theoretic quantification of how much observing the past can help in predicting the future is given by the predictive information (Bialek et al., 2001). The predictive information is the mutual information (MI) between a finite set of observations (the past of a sequence) and an infinite number of additional draws from the same process (the future of a sequence).

We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the best of our knowledge) any work on unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood (also known as the model evidence or the normalizing constant) in this type of particle filters. Being able to estimate the marginal likelihood without bias is highly relevant for model comparison, computation of interpretable and reliable confidence intervals, and in exact approximation methods, such as particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. In the paper we present a particle filter with rejection control that enables unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have a drawback when working with a target distribution or likelihood function that is computationally expensive to evaluate, specially when working with big data. This paper focuses on Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm for unimodal distributions. Here, an enhanced MH algorithm is proposed that requires less number of expensive function evaluations, has shorter burn-in period, and uses a better proposal distribution. The main innovations include the use of Bayesian optimization to reach the high probability region quickly, emulating the target distribution using Gaussian processes (GP), and using Laplace approximation of the GP to build a proposal distribution that captures the underlying correlation better. The experiments show significant improvement over the regular MH. Statistical comparison between the results from two algorithms is presented.

Integrals of linearly constrained multivariate Gaussian densities are a frequent problem in machine learning and statistics, arising in tasks like generalized linear models and Bayesian optimization. Yet they are notoriously hard to compute, and to further complicate matters, the numerical values of such integrals may be very small. We present an efficient black-box algorithm that exploits geometry for the estimation of integrals over a small, truncated Gaussian volume, and to simulate therefrom. Our algorithm uses the Holmes-Diaconis-Ross (HDR) method combined with an analytic version of elliptical slice sampling (ESS). Adapted to the linear setting, ESS allows for efficient, rejection-free sampling, because intersections of ellipses and domain boundaries have closed-form solutions. The key idea of HDR is to decompose the integral into easier-to-compute conditional probabilities by using a sequence of nested domains. Remarkably, it allows for direct computation of the logarithm of the integral value and thus enables the computation of extremely small probability masses. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our tailored combination of HDR and ESS on high-dimensional integrals and on entropy search for Bayesian optimization.

The runtime performance of modern SAT solvers is deeply connected to the phase transition behavior of CNF formulas. While CNF solving has witnessed significant runtime improvement over the past two decades, the same does not hold for several other classes such as the conjunction of cardinality and XOR constraints, denoted as CARD-XOR formulas. The problem of determining the satisfiability of CARD-XOR formulas is a fundamental problem with a wide variety of applications ranging from discrete integration in the field of artificial intelligence to maximum likelihood decoding in coding theory. The runtime behavior of random CARD-XOR formulas is unexplored in prior work. In this paper, we present the first rigorous empirical study to characterize the runtime behavior of 1-CARD-XOR formulas. We show empirical evidence of a surprising phase-transition that follows a non-linear tradeoff between CARD and XOR constraints.

We present an axiomatic way of assigning probabilities to black box models. In particular, we quantify an upper bound for probability of a model or in terms of information theory, a lower bound for amount of information that is stored in a model. In our setup, maximizing probabilities of models is equivalent to removing assumptions or information stored in the model. Furthermore, we represent the problem of learning from an alternative view where the underlying probability space is considered directly. In this perspective both the true underlying model and the model at hand are events. Consequently, the problem of learning is represented as minimizing the probability of the symmetric difference of the model and the true underlying model.