Various researchers have studied posterior inference of parameters in Bayesian mixture models [24, 42, 23], so that the statistical behavior of such models is relatively well-understood. In contrast, much less is known about the efficiency of different algorithms for sampling from the posterior distributions that arise from Bayesian mixture models. A standard approach for doing so is via some form of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Many different types of MCMC algorithms have been introduced for various types of Bayesian mixture models, including finite Bayesian mixture models [21, 49, 50, 26, 40], Dirichlet process mixture models [37, 41, 25, 28], and hierarchical and nested Dirichlet process models [52, 47]. Despite the plethora of possible MCMC methods, upper bounds on their mixing times are often challenging to establish. We refer the reader to the papers [27, 3, 55, 48, 57] for non-asymptotic upper bounds on mixing times for certain types of Bayesian models, different from those studied in this paper. In recent years, it has been increasingly common in the Bayesian literature to make use of a fractional likelihood--meaning an ordinary likelihood raised to some fractional power. Combining such a fractional likelihood with a prior distribution in the usual way leads to a class of posteriors known as power posterior or fractional posterior distributions. The power posterior distributions have been shown to have attractive properties in terms of robustness to mis-specification in Bayesian mixture models [39], and have been used in various applications 1 arXiv:1912.05153v1

In many data analysis tasks, it is beneficial to learn representations where each dimension is statistically independent and thus disentangled from the others. If data generating factors are also statistically independent, disentangled representations can be formed by Bayesian inference of latent variables. We examine a generalization of the Variational Autoencoder (VAE), $\beta$-VAE, for learning such representations using variational inference. $\beta$-VAE enforces conditional independence of its bottleneck neurons controlled by its hyperparameter $\beta$. This condition is in general not compatible with the statistical independence of latents. By providing analytical and numerical arguments, we show that this incompatibility leads to a non-monotonic inference performance in $\beta$-VAE with a finite optimal $\beta$.

We propose a scalable Bayesian preference learning method for jointly predicting the preferences of individuals as well as the consensus of a crowd from pairwise labels. Peoples' opinions often differ greatly, making it difficult to predict their preferences from small amounts of personal data. Individual biases also make it harder to infer the consensus of a crowd when there are few labels per item. We address these challenges by combining matrix factorisation with Gaussian processes, using a Bayesian approach to account for uncertainty arising from noisy and sparse data. Our method exploits input features, such as text embeddings and user metadata, to predict preferences for new items and users that are not in the training set. As previous solutions based on Gaussian processes do not scale to large numbers of users, items or pairwise labels, we propose a stochastic variational inference approach that limits computational and memory costs. Our experiments on a recommendation task show that our method is competitive with previous approaches despite our scalable inference approximation. We demonstrate the method's scalability on a natural language processing task with thousands of users and items, and show improvements over the state of the art on this task. We make our software publicly available for future work.

FL embodies the principles of focused data collection and minimization, and can mitigate many of the systemic privacy risks and costs resulting from traditional, centralized machine learning and data science approaches. Motivated by the explosive growth in FL research, this paper discusses recent advances and presents an extensive collection of open problems and challenges. Peter Kairouz and H. Brendan McMahan conceived, coordinated, and edited this work.

This paper investigates Frequentist consistency properties of the posterior distributions constructed via Generalized Variational Inference (GVI). A number of generic and novel strategies are given for proving consistency, relying on the theory of $\Gamma$-convergence. Specifically, this paper shows that under minimal regularity conditions, the sequence of GVI posteriors is consistent and collapses to a point mass at the population-optimal parameter value as the number of observations goes to infinity. The results extend to the latent variable case without additional assumptions and hold under misspecification. Lastly, the paper explains how to apply the results to a selection of GVI posteriors with especially popular variational families. For example, consistency is established for GVI methods using the mean field normal variational family, normal mixtures, Gaussian process variational families as well as neural networks indexing a normal (mixture) distribution.

Q-learning with neural network function approximation (neural Q-learning for short) is among the most prevalent deep reinforcement learning algorithms. Despite its empirical success, the non-asymptotic convergence rate of neural Q-learning remains virtually unknown. In this paper, we present a finite-time analysis of a neural Q-learning algorithm, where the data are generated from a Markov decision process and the action-value function is approximated by a deep ReLU neural network. We prove that neural Q-learning finds the optimal policy with $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate if the neural function approximator is sufficiently overparameterized, where $T$ is the number of iterations. To our best knowledge, our result is the first finite-time analysis of neural Q-learning under non-i.i.d. data assumption.

In most fuzzy control applications (applying classical fuzzy reasoning), the reasoning method requires a complete fuzzy rule-base, i.e all the possible observations must be covered by the antecedents of the fuzzy rules, which is not always available. Fuzzy control systems based on the Fuzzy Rule Interpolation (FRI) concept play a major role in different platforms, in case if only a sparse fuzzy rule-base is available. This cases the fuzzy model contains only the most relevant rules, without covering all the antecedent universes. The first FRI toolbox being able to handle different FRI methods was developed by Johanyak et. al. in 2006 for the MATLAB environment. The goal of this paper is to introduce some details of the adaptation of the FRI toolbox to support the GNU/OCTAVE programming language. The OCTAVE Fuzzy Rule Interpolation (OCTFRI) Toolbox is an open-source toolbox for OCTAVE programming language, providing a large functionally compatible subset of the MATLAB FRI toolbox as well as many extensions. The OCTFRI Toolbox includes functions that enable the user to evaluate Fuzzy Inference Systems (FISs) from the command line and from OCTAVE scripts, read/write FISs and OBS to/from files, and produce a graphical visualisation of both the membership functions and the FIS outputs. Future work will focus on implementing advanced fuzzy inference techniques and GUI tools.

Maximizing the (log) likelihood is equivalent to minimizing the binary cross entropy. There is literally no difference between the two objective functions, so there can be no difference between the resulting model or its characteristics. This of course, can be extended quite simply to the multiclass case using softmax cross-entropy and the so-called multinoulli likelihood, so there is no difference when doing this for multiclass cases as is typical in, say, neural networks. The difference between MLE and cross-entropy is that MLE represents a structured and principled approach to modeling and training, and binary/softmax cross-entropy simply represent special cases of that applied to problems that people typically care about. After that aside on maximum likelihood estimation, let's delve more into the relationship between negative log likelihood and cross entropy.

We design a new provably efficient algorithm for episodic reinforcement learning with generalized linear function approximation. We analyze the algorithm under a new expressivity assumption that we call "optimistic closure," which is strictly weaker than assumptions from prior analyses for the linear setting. With optimistic closure, we prove that our algorithm enjoys a regret bound of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{d^3 T})$ where $d$ is the dimensionality of the state-action features and $T$ is the number of episodes. This is the first statistically and computationally efficient algorithm for reinforcement learning with generalized linear functions.

High-dimensional prediction is a challenging problem setting for traditional statistical models. Although regularization improves model performance in high dimensions, it does not sufficiently leverage knowledge on feature importances held by domain experts. As an alternative to standard regularization techniques, we propose Distance Metric Learning Regularization (DMLreg), an approach for eliciting prior knowledge from domain experts and integrating that knowledge into a regularized linear model. First, we learn a Mahalanobis distance metric between observations from pairwise similarity comparisons provided by an expert. Then, we use the learned distance metric to place prior distributions on coefficients in a linear model. Through experimental results on a simulated high-dimensional prediction problem, we show that DMLreg leads to improvements in model performance when the domain expert is knowledgeable.