Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine Learning. Many real problems have heteroscedastic stochastic outputs, which explains the need of input-dependent prediction intervals. This paper proposes to estimate the input-dependent prediction intervals by a separate Extreme Learning Machine model, using variance of its predictions as a correction term accounting for the model uncertainty. The variance is estimated from the model's linear output layer with a weighted Jackknife method. The methodology is very fast, robust to heteroscedastic outputs, and handles both extremely large datasets and insufficient amount of training data.

Analyzing electronic health records (EHR) poses significant challenges because often few samples are available describing a patient's health and, when available, their information content is highly diverse. The problem we consider is how to integrate sparsely sampled longitudinal data, missing measurements informative of the underlying health status and fixed demographic information to produce estimated survival distributions updated through a patient's follow up. We propose a nonparametric probabilistic model that generates survival trajectories from an ensemble of Bayesian trees that learns variable interactions over time without specifying beforehand the longitudinal process. We show performance improvements on Primary Biliary Cirrhosis patient data.

The thesis contributes in several important ways to the research area of 3D object category learning and recognition. To cope with the mentioned limitations, we look at human cognition, in particular at the fact that human beings learn to recognize object categories ceaselessly over time. This ability to refine knowledge from the set of accumulated experiences facilitates the adaptation to new environments. Inspired by this capability, we seek to create a cognitive object perception and perceptual learning architecture that can learn 3D object categories in an open-ended fashion. In this context, ``open-ended'' implies that the set of categories to be learned is not known in advance, and the training instances are extracted from actual experiences of a robot, and thus become gradually available, rather than being available since the beginning of the learning process. In particular, this architecture provides perception capabilities that will allow robots to incrementally learn object categories from the set of accumulated experiences and reason about how to perform complex tasks. This framework integrates detection, tracking, teaching, learning, and recognition of objects. An extensive set of systematic experiments, in multiple experimental settings, was carried out to thoroughly evaluate the described learning approaches. Experimental results show that the proposed system is able to interact with human users, learn new object categories over time, as well as perform complex tasks. The contributions presented in this thesis have been fully implemented and evaluated on different standard object and scene datasets and empirically evaluated on different robotic platforms.

Spike-and-slab priors are popular Bayesian solutions for high-dimensional linear regression problems. Previous works on theoretical properties of spike-and-slab methods focus on specific prior formulations and use prior-dependent conditions and analyses, and thus can not be generalized directly. In this paper, we propose a class of generic spike-and-slab priors and develop a unified framework to rigorously assess their theoretical properties. Technically, we provide general conditions under which generic spike-and-slab priors can achieve a nearly-optimal posterior contraction rate and model selection consistency. Our results include those of Castillo et al. (2015) and Narisetty and He (2014) as special cases.

However, there are several practical considerations in the choice of meta-learning algorithm which can influence the computational efficiency and overall performance of MOCA. For the experiments in this paper, we leverage two meta-learning algorithms which offer a clean Bayesian learning interpretation, relatively low-dimensional posterior statistics, recursive updates for these statistics, and computationally efficient likelihood evaluation under the posterior predictive. For regression experiments, we use ALPaCA (Harrison et al., 2018); for classification experiments, we use a novel algorithm based on similar Bayesian updates which we refer to as PCOC, for probabilistic clustering for online classification. For completeness, we offer a high level overview of these algorithms and show how they fit into the MOCA framework in the following subsections.

To restore the historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) better, it is important to construct a good calibration model for the associated proxies. In this paper, we introduce a new model for alkenone (${\rm{U}}_{37}^{\rm{K}'}$) based on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (GP) regression method. Our nonparametric approach not only deals with the variable pattern of noises over SSTs but also contains a Bayesian method of classifying potential outliers.

Submodularity is one of the most well-studied properties of problem classes in combinatorial optimization and many applications of machine learning and data mining, with strong implications for guaranteed optimization. In this thesis, we investigate the role of submodularity in provable non-convex optimization and validation of algorithms. A profound understanding which classes of functions can be tractably optimized remains a central challenge for non-convex optimization. By advancing the notion of submodularity to continuous domains (termed "continuous submodularity"), we characterize a class of generally non-convex and non-concave functions -- continuous submodular functions, and derive algorithms for approximately maximizing them with strong approximation guarantees. Meanwhile, continuous submodularity captures a wide spectrum of applications, ranging from revenue maximization with general marketing strategies, MAP inference for DPPs to mean field inference for probabilistic log-submodular models, which renders it as a valuable domain knowledge in optimizing this class of objectives. Validation of algorithms is an information-theoretic framework to investigate the robustness of algorithms to fluctuations in the input/observations and their generalization ability. We investigate various algorithms for one of the paradigmatic unconstrained submodular maximization problem: MaxCut. Due to submodularity of the MaxCut objective, we are able to present efficient approaches to calculate the algorithmic information content of MaxCut algorithms. The results provide insights into the robustness of different algorithmic techniques for MaxCut.

This paper introduces Tree-Pyramidal Adaptive Importance Sampling (TP-AIS), a novel iterated sampling method that outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches. TP-AIS iteratively builds a proposal distribution parameterized by a tree pyramid, where each tree leaf spans a convex subspace and represents it's importance density. After each new sample operation, a set of tree leaves are subdivided improving the approximation of the proposal distribution to the target density. Unlike the rest of the methods in the literature, TP-AIS is parameter free and requires zero manual tuning to achieve its best performance. Our proposed method is evaluated with different complexity randomized target probability density functions and also analyze its application to different dimensions. The results are compared to state-of-the-art iterative importance sampling approaches and other baseline MCMC approaches using Normalized Effective Sample Size (N-ESS), Jensen-Shannon Divergence to the target posterior, and time complexity.

The neural linear model is a simple adaptive Bayesian linear regression method that has recently been used in a number of problems ranging from Bayesian optimization to reinforcement learning. Despite its apparent successes in these settings, to the best of our knowledge there has been no systematic exploration of its capabilities on simple regression tasks. In this work we characterize these on the UCI datasets, a popular benchmark for Bayesian regression models, as well as on the recently introduced UCI "gap" datasets, which are better tests of out-of-distribution uncertainty. We demonstrate that the neural linear model is a simple method that shows generally good performance on these tasks, but at the cost of requiring good hyperparameter tuning.

We consider the problem of the estimation of a high-dimensional probability distribution using model classes of functions in tree-based tensor formats, a particular case of tensor networks associated with a dimension partition tree. The distribution is assumed to admit a density with respect to a product measure, possibly discrete for handling the case of discrete random variables. After discussing the representation of classical model classes in tree-based tensor formats, we present learning algorithms based on empirical risk minimization using a $L^2$ contrast. These algorithms exploit the multilinear parametrization of the formats to recast the nonlinear minimization problem into a sequence of empirical risk minimization problems with linear models. A suitable parametrization of the tensor in tree-based tensor format allows to obtain a linear model with orthogonal bases, so that each problem admits an explicit expression of the solution and cross-validation risk estimates. These estimations of the risk enable the model selection, for instance when exploiting sparsity in the coefficients of the representation. A strategy for the adaptation of the tensor format (dimension tree and tree-based ranks) is provided, which allows to discover and exploit some specific structures of high-dimensional probability distributions such as independence or conditional independence. We illustrate the performances of the proposed algorithms for the approximation of classical probabilistic models (such as Gaussian distribution, graphical models, Markov chain).