This paper presents a new approach to a robust Gaussian process (GP) regression. Most existing approaches replace an outlier-prone Gaussian likelihood with a non-Gaussian likelihood induced from a heavy tail distribution, such as the Laplace distribution and Student-t distribution. However, the use of a non-Gaussian likelihood would incur the need for a computationally expensive Bayesian approximate computation in the posterior inferences. The proposed approach models an outlier as a noisy and biased observation of an unknown regression function, and accordingly, the likelihood contains bias terms to explain the degree of deviations from the regression function. We entail how the biases can be estimated accurately with other hyperparameters by a regularized maximum likelihood estimation. Conditioned on the bias estimates, the robust GP regression can be reduced to a standard GP regression problem with analytical forms of the predictive mean and variance estimates. Therefore, the proposed approach is simple and very computationally attractive. It also gives a very robust and accurate GP estimate for many tested scenarios. For the numerical evaluation, we perform a comprehensive simulation study to evaluate the proposed approach with the comparison to the existing robust GP approaches under various simulated scenarios of different outlier proportions and different noise levels. The approach is applied to data from two measurement systems, where the predictors are based on robust environmental parameter measurements and the response variables utilize more complex chemical sensing methods that contain a certain percentage of outliers. The utility of the measurement systems and value of the environmental data are improved through the computationally efficient GP regression and bias model.

Despite the growing interest in continual learning, most of its contemporary works have been studied in a rather restricted setting where tasks are clearly distinguishable, and task boundaries are known during training. However, if our goal is to develop an algorithm that learns as humans do, this setting is far from realistic, and it is essential to develop a methodology that works in a task-free manner. Meanwhile, among several branches of continual learning, expansion-based methods have the advantage of eliminating catastrophic forgetting by allocating new resources to learn new data. In this work, we propose an expansion-based approach for task-free continual learning. Our model, named Continual Neural Dirichlet Process Mixture (CN-DPM), consists of a set of neural network experts that are in charge of a subset of the data. CN-DPM expands the number of experts in a principled way under the Bayesian nonparametric framework. With extensive experiments, we show that our model successfully performs task-free continual learning for both discriminative and generative tasks such as image classification and image generation.

This paper introduces epistemic graphs as a generalization of the epistemic approach to probabilistic argumentation. In these graphs, an argument can be believed or disbelieved up to a given degree, thus providing a more fine--grained alternative to the standard Dung's approaches when it comes to determining the status of a given argument. Furthermore, the flexibility of the epistemic approach allows us to both model the rationale behind the existing semantics as well as completely deviate from them when required. Epistemic graphs can model both attack and support as well as relations that are neither support nor attack. The way other arguments influence a given argument is expressed by the epistemic constraints that can restrict the belief we have in an argument with a varying degree of specificity. The fact that we can specify the rules under which arguments should be evaluated and we can include constraints between unrelated arguments permits the framework to be more context--sensitive. It also allows for better modelling of imperfect agents, which can be important in multi--agent applications.

An open question in systems and computational neuroscience is how neural circuits accumulate evidence towards a decision. Fitting models of decision-making theory to neural activity helps answer this question, but current approaches limit the number of these models that we can fit to neural data. Here we propose a unifying framework for modeling neural activity during decision-making tasks. The framework includes the canonical drift-diffusion model and enables extensions such as multi-dimensional accumulators, variable and collapsing boundaries, and discrete jumps. Our framework is based on constraining the parameters of recurrent state-space models, for which we introduce a scalable variational Laplace-EM inference algorithm. We applied the modeling approach to spiking responses recorded from monkey parietal cortex during two decision-making tasks. We found that a two-dimensional accumulator better captured the trial-averaged responses of a set of parietal neurons than a single accumulator model. Next, we identified a variable lower boundary in the responses of an LIP neuron during a random dot motion task.

The scalable inference for Bayesian nonparametric models with big data is still challenging. Current variational inference methods fail to characterise the correlation structure among latent variables due to the mean-field setting and cannot infer the true posterior dimension because of the universal truncation. To overcome these limitations, we build a general framework to infer Bayesian nonparametric models by maximising the proposed nonparametric evidence lower bound, and then develop a novel approach by combining Monte Carlo sampling and stochastic variational inference framework. Our method has several advantages over the traditional online variational inference method. First, it achieves a smaller divergence between variational distributions and the true posterior by factorising variational distributions under the conditional setting instead of the mean-field setting to capture the correlation pattern. Second, it reduces the risk of underfitting or overfitting by truncating the dimension adaptively rather than using a prespecified truncated dimension for all latent variables. Third, it reduces the computational complexity by approximating the posterior functionally instead of updating the stick-breaking parameters individually. We apply the proposed method on hierarchical Dirichlet process and gamma--Dirichlet process models, two essential Bayesian nonparametric models in topic analysis. The empirical study on three large datasets including arXiv, New York Times and Wikipedia reveals that our proposed method substantially outperforms its competitor in terms of lower perplexity and much clearer topic-words clustering.

When people learn mathematical patterns or sequences, they are able to identify the concepts (or rules) underlying those patterns. Having learned the underlying concepts, humans are also able to generalize those concepts to other numbers, so far as to even identify previously unseen combinations of those rules. Current state-of-the art RNN architectures like LSTMs perform well in predicting successive elements of sequential data, but require vast amounts of training examples. Even with extensive data, these models struggle to generalize concepts. From our behavioral study, we also found that humans are able to disregard noise and identify the underlying rules generating the corrupted sequences. We therefore propose a Bayesian model that captures these human-like learning capabilities to predict next number in a given sequence, better than traditional LSTMs.

Probabilistic inference in the hybrid domain, i.e. inference over discrete-continuous domains, requires tackling two well known #P-hard problems 1)~weighted model counting (WMC) over discrete variables and 2)~integration over continuous variables. For both of these problems inference techniques have been developed separately in order to manage their #P-hardness, such as knowledge compilation for WMC and Monte Carlo (MC) methods for (approximate) integration in the continuous domain. Weighted model integration (WMI), the extension of WMC to the hybrid domain, has been proposed as a formalism to study probabilistic inference over discrete and continuous variables alike. Recently developed WMI solvers have focused on exploiting structure in WMI problems, for which they rely on symbolic integration to find the primitive of an integrand, i.e. to perform anti-differentiation. To combine these advances with state-of-the-art Monte Carlo integration techniques, we introduce \textit{Monte Carlo anti-differentiation} (MCAD), which computes MC approximations of anti-derivatives. In our empirical evaluation we substitute the exact symbolic integration backend in an existing WMI solver with an MCAD backend. Our experiments show that that equipping existing WMI solvers with MCAD yields a fast yet reliable approximate inference scheme.

Robots need models of human behavior for both inferring human goals and preferences, and predicting what people will do. A common model is the Boltzmann noisily-rational decision model, which assumes people approximately optimize a reward function and choose trajectories in proportion to their exponentiated reward. While this model has been successful in a variety of robotics domains, its roots lie in econometrics, and in modeling decisions among different discrete options, each with its own utility or reward. In contrast, human trajectories lie in a continuous space, with continuous-valued features that influence the reward function. We propose that it is time to rethink the Boltzmann model, and design it from the ground up to operate over such trajectory spaces. We introduce a model that explicitly accounts for distances between trajectories, rather than only their rewards. Rather than each trajectory affecting the decision independently, similar trajectories now affect the decision together. We start by showing that our model better explains human behavior in a user study. We then analyze the implications this has for robot inference, first in toy environments where we have ground truth and find more accurate inference, and finally for a 7DOF robot arm learning from user demonstrations.

Fusion is a common tool for the analysis and utilization of available datasets and so an essential part of data mining and machine learning processes. However, a clear definition of the type of fusion is not always provided due to inconsistent literature. In the following, the process of fusion is defined depending on the fusion components and the abstraction level on which the fusion occurs. The focus in the first part of the paper at hand is on the clear definition of the terminology and the development of an appropriate ontology of the fusion components and the fusion level. In the second part, common fusion techniques are presented.

To solve hard problems, AI relies on a variety of disciplines such as logic, probabilistic reasoning, machine learning and mathematical programming. Although it is widely accepted that solving real-world problems requires an integration amongst these, contemporary representation methodologies offer little support for this. In an attempt to alleviate this situation, we introduce a new declarative programming framework that provides abstractions of well-known problems such as SAT, Bayesian inference, generative models, and convex optimization. The semantics of programs is defined in terms of first-order structures with semiring labels, which allows us to freely combine and integrate problems from different AI disciplines.