Throughout the course of the paper, we assume that y and X have been centered at 0 so there is no intercept in the model, where y is the n 1 vector of centered responses, X is the n p matrix of standardized regressors, β is the p 1 vector of coefficients to be estimated, and null is the n 1 vector of independent and identically distributed normal errors with mean 0 and variance σ 2 . Compared to traditional penalization functions that are usually symmetric about 0, continuous and nondecreasing in (0,), the rLASSO penalty functions are decreasing in (0,), discontinuous at 0, and converge to infinity when the coefficients approach zero. From a theoretical standpoint, rLASSO shares the same oracle property and same rate of estimation error with other LASSOtype penalty functions. An early reference to this class of models can be found in Song and Liang (2015), with more recent papers focusing on large sample asymptotics, along with computational strategies for frequentist estimation (Shin et al., 2018; Song, 2018). Our approach differs from this line of work in adopting a Bayesian perspective on rLASSO estimation. Ideally, a Bayesian solution can be obtained by placing appropriate priors on the regression coefficients that will mimic the effects of the rLASSO penalty. As apparent from (1), this arises in assuming a prior for β that decomposes as a product of independent inverse Laplace (double exponential) densities: π (β) p null j 1 λ 2β 2 j exp{ λ β j }I { β j null 0 }.

In the last decade, social networks became most popular medium for communication and interaction. As an example, micro-blogging service Twitter has more than 200 million registered users who exchange more than 65 million posts per day. Users express their thoughts, ideas, and even their intentions through these tweets. Most of the tweets are written informally and often in slang language, that contains misspelt and abbreviated words. This paper investigates the problem of selecting features that affect extracting user's intention from Twitter feeds based on text mining techniques. It starts by presenting the method we used to construct our own dataset from extracted Twitter feeds. Following that, we present two techniques of feature selection followed by classification. In the first technique, we use Information Gain as a one-phase feature selection, followed by supervised classification algorithms. In the second technique, we use a hybrid approach based on forward feature selection algorithm in which two feature selection techniques employed followed by classification algorithms. We examine these two techniques with four classification algorithms. We evaluate them using our own dataset, and we critically review the results.

A central tenet of probabilistic programming is that a model is specified exactly once in a canonical representation which is usable by inference algorithms. We describe JointDistributions, a family of declarative representations of directed graphical models in TensorFlow Probability.

Topic models have become popular tools for dimension reduction and exploratory analysis of text data which consists in observed frequencies of a vocabulary of $p$ words in $n$ documents, stored in a $p\times n$ matrix. The main premise is that the mean of this data matrix can be factorized into a product of two non-negative matrices: a $p\times K$ word-topic matrix $A$ and a $K\times n$ topic-document matrix $W$. This paper studies the estimation of $A$ that is possibly element-wise sparse, and the number of topics $K$ is unknown. In this under-explored context, we derive a new minimax lower bound for the estimation of such $A$ and propose a new computationally efficient algorithm for its recovery. We derive a finite sample upper bound for our estimator, and show that it matches the minimax lower bound in many scenarios. Our estimate adapts to the unknown sparsity of $A$ and our analysis is valid for any finite $n$, $p$, $K$ and document lengths. Empirical results on both synthetic data and semi-synthetic data show that our proposed estimator is a strong competitor of the existing state-of-the-art algorithms for both non-sparse $A$ and sparse $A$, and has superior performance is many scenarios of interest.

Transport demand is highly dependent on supply, especially for shared transport services where availability is often limited. As observed demand cannot be higher than available supply, historical transport data typically represents a biased, or censored, version of the true underlying demand pattern. Without explicitly accounting for this inherent distinction, predictive models of demand would necessarily represent a biased version of true demand, thus less effectively predicting the needs of service users. To counter this problem, we propose a general method for censorship-aware demand modeling, for which we devise a censored likelihood function. We apply this method to the task of shared mobility demand prediction by incorporating the censored likelihood within a Gaussian Process model, which can flexibly approximate arbitrary functional forms. Experiments on artificial and real-world datasets show how taking into account the limiting effect of supply on demand is essential in the process of obtaining an unbiased predictive model of user demand behavior.

How can we enable machines to make sense of the world, and become better at learning? To approach this goal, I believe viewing intelligence in terms of many integral aspects, and also a universal two-term tradeoff between task performance and complexity, provides two feasible perspectives. In this thesis, I address several key questions in some aspects of intelligence, and study the phase transitions in the two-term tradeoff, using strategies and tools from physics and information. Firstly, how can we make the learning models more flexible and efficient, so that agents can learn quickly with fewer examples? Inspired by how physicists model the world, we introduce a paradigm and an AI Physicist agent for simultaneously learning many small specialized models (theories) and the domain they are accurate, which can then be simplified, unified and stored, facilitating few-shot learning in a continual way. Secondly, for representation learning, when can we learn a good representation, and how does learning depend on the structure of the dataset? We approach this question by studying phase transitions when tuning the tradeoff hyperparameter. In the information bottleneck, we theoretically show that these phase transitions are predictable and reveal structure in the relationships between the data, the model, the learned representation and the loss landscape. Thirdly, how can agents discover causality from observations? We address part of this question by introducing an algorithm that combines prediction and minimizing information from the input, for exploratory causal discovery from observational time series. Fourthly, to make models more robust to label noise, we introduce Rank Pruning, a robust algorithm for classification with noisy labels. I believe that building on the work of my thesis we will be one step closer to enable more intelligent machines that can make sense of the world.

Which variables does an agent have an incentive to control with its decision, and which variables does it have an incentive to respond to? We formalize these incentives, and demonstrate unique graphical criteria for detecting them in any single-decision causal influence diagram. To this end, we introduce structural causal influence models, a hybrid of the influence diagram and structural causal model frameworks. Finally, we illustrate how these incentives predict agent incentives in both fairness and AI safety applications.

Online Social Networks(OSNs) have established virtual platforms enabling people to express their opinions, interests and thoughts in a variety of contexts and domains, allowing legitimate users as well as spammers and other untrustworthy users to publish and spread their content. Hence, the concept of social trust has attracted the attention of information processors/data scientists and information consumers/business firms. One of the main reasons for acquiring the value of Social Big Data (SBD) is to provide frameworks and methodologies using which the credibility of OSNs users can be evaluated. These approaches should be scalable to accommodate large-scale social data. Hence, there is a need for well comprehending of social trust to improve and expand the analysis process and inferring the credibility of SBD. Given the exposed environment's settings and fewer limitations related to OSNs, the medium allows legitimate and genuine users as well as spammers and other low trustworthy users to publish and spread their content. Hence, this paper presents an approach incorporates semantic analysis and machine learning modules to measure and predict users' trustworthiness in numerous domains in different time periods. The evaluation of the conducted experiment validates the applicability of the incorporated machine learning techniques to predict highly trustworthy domain-based users.

The Mixed-Membership Stochastic Blockmodel~(MMSB) is proposed as one of the state-of-the-art Bayesian relational methods suitable for learning the complex hidden structure underlying the network data. However, the current formulation of MMSB suffers from the following two issues: (1), the prior information~(e.g. entities' community structural information) can not be well embedded in the modelling; (2), community evolution can not be well described in the literature. Therefore, we propose a non-parametric fragmentation coagulation based Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (fcMMSB). Our model performs entity-based clustering to capture the community information for entities and linkage-based clustering to derive the group information for links simultaneously. Besides, the proposed model infers the network structure and models community evolution, manifested by appearances and disappearances of communities, using the discrete fragmentation coagulation process (DFCP). By integrating the community structure with the group compatibility matrix we derive a generalized version of MMSB. An efficient Gibbs sampling scheme with Polya Gamma (PG) approach is implemented for posterior inference. We validate our model on synthetic and real world data.

The reconstruction from observations of high-dimensional chaotic dynamics such as geophysical flows is hampered by (i) the partial and noisy observations that can realistically be obtained, (ii) the need to learn from long time series of data, and (iii) the unstable nature of the dynamics. To achieve such inference from the observations over long time series, it has been suggested to combine data assimilation and machine learning in several ways. We show how to unify these approaches from a Bayesian perspective using expectation-maximization and coordinate descents. Implementations and approximations of these methods are also discussed. Finally, we numerically and successfully test the approach on two relevant low-order chaotic models with distinct identifiability.