Smarter applications are making better use of the insights gleaned from data, having an impact on every industry and research discipline. At the core of this revolution lies the tools and the methods that are driving it, from processing the massive piles of data generated each day to learning from and taking useful action. Deep neural networks, along with advancements in classical ML and scalable general-purpose GPU computing, have become critical components of artificial intelligence, enabling many of these astounding breakthroughs and lowering the barrier to adoption. Python continues to be the most preferred language for scientific computing, data science, and machine learning, boosting both performance and productivity by enabling the use of low-level libraries and clean high-level APIs. This survey offers insight into the field of machine learning with Python, taking a tour through important topics to identify some of the core hardware and software paradigms that have enabled it. We cover widely-used libraries and concepts, collected together for holistic comparison, with the goal of educating the reader and driving the field of Python machine learning forward.

Vulnerability to adversarial attacks is one of the principal hurdles to the adoption of deep learning in safety-critical applications. Despite significant efforts, both practical and theoretical, the problem remains open. In this paper, we analyse the geometry of adversarial attacks in the large-data, overparametrized limit for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We show that, in the limit, vulnerability to gradient-based attacks arises as a result of degeneracy in the data distribution, i.e., when the data lies on a lower-dimensional submanifold of the ambient space. As a direct consequence, we demonstrate that in the limit BNN posteriors are robust to gradient-based adversarial attacks. Experimental results on the MNIST and Fashion MNIST datasets with BNNs trained with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Variational Inference support this line of argument, showing that BNNs can display both high accuracy and robustness to gradient based adversarial attacks.

Network congestion games are a well-understood model of multi-agent strategic interactions. Despite their ubiquitous applications, it is not clear whether it is possible to design information structures to ameliorate the overall experience of the network users. We focus on Bayesian games with atomic players, where network vagaries are modeled via a (random) state of nature which determines the costs incurred by the players. A third-party entity---the sender---can observe the realized state of the network and exploit this additional information to send a signal to each player. A natural question is the following: is it possible for an informed sender to reduce the overall social cost via the strategic provision of information to players who update their beliefs rationally? The paper focuses on the problem of computing optimal ex ante persuasive signaling schemes, showing that symmetry is a crucial property for its solution. Indeed, we show that an optimal ex ante persuasive signaling scheme can be computed in polynomial time when players are symmetric and have affine cost functions. Moreover, the problem becomes NP-hard when players are asymmetric, even in non-Bayesian settings.

We present a conversational recommendation system based on a Bayesian approach. A probability mass function over the items is updated after any interaction with the user, with information-theoretic criteria optimally shaping the interaction and deciding when the conversation should be terminated and the most probable item consequently recommended. Dedicated elicitation techniques for the prior probabilities of the parameters modeling the interactions are derived from basic structural judgements. Such prior information can be combined with historical data to discriminate items with different recommendation histories. A case study based on the application of this approach to \emph{stagend.com}, an online platform for booking entertainers, is finally discussed together with an empirical analysis showing the advantages in terms of recommendation quality and efficiency.

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are at the center of health economic decision making. While these analyses help policy analysts and economists determine coverage, inform policy, and guide resource allocation, they are statistically challenging for several reasons. Cost and effectiveness are correlated and follow complex joint distributions which cannot be captured parametrically. Effectiveness (often measured as increased survival time) and cost both tend to be right-censored. Moreover, CEAs are often conducted using observational data with non-random treatment assignment. Policy-relevant causal estimation therefore requires robust confounding control. Finally, current CEA methods do not address cost-effectiveness heterogeneity in a principled way - opting to either present marginal results or cost-effectiveness results for pre-specified subgroups. Motivated by these challenges, we develop a nonparametric Bayesian model for joint cost-survival distributions in the presence of censoring. Our approach utilizes an Enriched Dirichlet Process prior on the covariate effects of cost and survival time, while using a separate Gamma Process prior on the baseline survival time hazard. Causal CEA estimands are identified and estimated via a Bayesian nonparametric g-computation procedure. Finally, we propose leveraging the induced clustering of the Enriched Dirichlet Process to adaptively discover subgroups of patients with different cost-effectiveness profiles. We outline an MCMC procedure for full posterior inference, evaluate frequentist properties via simulations, and apply our model to an observational study of endometrial cancer therapies using medical insurance claims data.

We outline an inherent weakness of tensor factorization models when latent factors are expressed as a function of side information and propose a novel method to mitigate this weakness. We coin our method \textit{Kernel Fried Tensor}(KFT) and present it as a large scale forecasting tool for high dimensional data. Our results show superior performance against \textit{LightGBM} and \textit{Field Aware Factorization Machines}(FFM), two algorithms with proven track records widely used in industrial forecasting. We also develop a variational inference framework for KFT and associate our forecasts with calibrated uncertainty estimates on three large scale datasets. Furthermore, KFT is empirically shown to be robust against uninformative side information in terms of constants and Gaussian noise.

A common issue for classification in scientific research and industry is the existence of imbalanced classes. When sample sizes of different classes are imbalanced in training data, naively implementing a classification method often leads to unsatisfactory prediction results on test data. Multiple resampling techniques have been proposed to address the class imbalance issues. Yet, there is no general guidance on when to use each technique. In this article, we provide an objective-oriented review of the common resampling techniques for binary classification under imbalanced class sizes. The learning objectives we consider include the classical paradigm that minimizes the overall classification error, the cost-sensitive learning paradigm that minimizes a cost-adjusted weighted type I and type II errors, and the Neyman-Pearson paradigm that minimizes the type II error subject to a type I error constraint. Under each paradigm, we investigate the combination of the resampling techniques and a few state-of-the-art classification methods. For each pair of resampling techniques and classification methods, we use simulation studies to study the performance under different evaluation metrics. From these extensive simulation experiments, we demonstrate under each classification paradigm, the complex dynamics among resampling techniques, base classification methods, evaluation metrics, and imbalance ratios. For practitioners, the take-away message is that with imbalanced data, one usually should consider all the combinations of resampling techniques and the base classification methods.

We study the problem of efficiently estimating the effect of an intervention on a single variable using observational samples in a causal Bayesian network. Our goal is to give algorithms that are efficient in both time and sample complexity in a non-parametric setting. Tian and Pearl (AAAI `02) have exactly characterized the class of causal graphs for which causal effects of atomic interventions can be identified from observational data. We make their result quantitative. Suppose P is a causal model on a set V of n observable variables with respect to a given causal graph G with observable distribution $P$. Let $P_x$ denote the interventional distribution over the observables with respect to an intervention of a designated variable X with x. We show that assuming that G has bounded in-degree, bounded c-components, and that the observational distribution is identifiable and satisfies certain strong positivity condition: 1. [Evaluation] There is an algorithm that outputs with probability $2/3$ an evaluator for a distribution $P'$ that satisfies $d_{tv}(P_x, P') \leq \epsilon$ using $m=\tilde{O}(n\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $P$ and $O(mn)$ time. The evaluator can return in $O(n)$ time the probability $P'(v)$ for any assignment $v$ to $V$. 2. [Generation] There is an algorithm that outputs with probability $2/3$ a sampler for a distribution $\hat{P}$ that satisfies $d_{tv}(P_x, \hat{P}) \leq \epsilon$ using $m=\tilde{O}(n\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $P$ and $O(mn)$ time. The sampler returns an iid sample from $\hat{P}$ with probability $1-\delta$ in $O(n\epsilon^{-1} \log\delta^{-1})$ time. We extend our techniques to estimate marginals $P_x|_Y$ over a given $Y \subset V$ of interest. We also show lower bounds for the sample complexity showing that our sample complexity has optimal dependence on the parameters n and $\epsilon$ as well as the strong positivity parameter.

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class of priors would represent weights compactly, capture correlations between weights, facilitate calibrated reasoning about uncertainty, and allow inclusion of prior knowledge about the function space such as periodicity or dependence on contexts such as inputs. To this end, this paper introduces two innovations: (i) a Gaussian process-based hierarchical model for network weights based on unit embeddings that can flexibly encode correlated weight structures, and (ii) input-dependent versions of these weight priors that can provide convenient ways to regularize the function space through the use of kernels defined on contextual inputs. We show these models provide desirable test-time uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution data, demonstrate cases of modeling inductive biases for neural networks with kernels which help both interpolation and extrapolation from training data, and demonstrate competitive predictive performance on an active learning benchmark.

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms combined with value function approximation have recently achieved impressive performance in a variety of application domains, including games and robotics. However, the theoretical understanding of such algorithms is limited, and existing results are largely focused on episodic or discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this work, we present adaptive approximate policy iteration (AAPI), a learning scheme which enjoys a O(T^{2/3}) regret bound for undiscounted, continuing learning in uniformly ergodic MDPs. This is an improvement over the best existing bound of O(T^{3/4}) for the average-reward case with function approximation. Our algorithm and analysis rely on adversarial online learning techniques, where value functions are treated as losses. The main technical novelty is the use of a data-dependent adaptive learning rate coupled with a so-called optimistic prediction of upcoming losses. In addition to theoretical guarantees, we demonstrate the advantages of our approach empirically on several environments.