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 Uncertainty


Learning to Linearize Under Uncertainty

Neural Information Processing Systems

Training deep feature hierarchies to solve supervised learning tasks has achieving state of the art performance on many problems in computer vision. However, a principled way in which to train such hierarchies in the unsupervised setting has remained elusive. In this work we suggest a new architecture and loss for training deep feature hierarchies that linearize the transformations observed in unlabelednatural video sequences. This is done by training a generative model to predict video frames. We also address the problem of inherent uncertainty in prediction by introducing a latent variables that are non-deterministic functions of the input into the network architecture. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


The Population Posterior and Bayesian Modeling on Streams

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze streams of data. It approximates a new type of distribution, the population posterior, which combines the notion of a population distribution of the data with Bayesian inference in a probabilistic model. We study our method with latent Dirichlet allocation and Dirichlet process mixtures on several large-scale data sets. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


Convergence Rates of Active Learning for Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

An active learner is given a class of models, a large set of unlabeled examples, and the ability to interactively query labels of a subset of these examples; the goal of the learner is to learn a model in the class that fits the data well. Previous theoretical work has rigorously characterized label complexity of active learning, but most of this work has focused on the PAC or the agnostic PAC model. In this paper, we shift our attention to a more general setting -- maximum likelihood estimation. Provided certain conditions hold on the model class, we provide a two-stage active learning algorithm for this problem. The conditions we require are fairly general, and cover the widely popular class of Generalized Linear Models, which in turn, include models for binary and multi-class classification, regression, and conditional random fields.


Non-convex Statistical Optimization for Sparse Tensor Graphical Model

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the estimation of sparse graphical models that characterize the dependency structure of high-dimensional tensor-valued data. To facilitate the estimation of the precision matrix corresponding to each way of the tensor, we assume the data follow a tensor normal distribution whose covariance has a Kronecker product structure. The penalized maximum likelihood estimation of this model involves minimizing a non-convex objective function. In spite of the non-convexity of this estimation problem, we prove that an alternating minimization algorithm, which iteratively estimates each sparse precision matrix while fixing the others, attains an estimator with the optimal statistical rate of convergence as well as consistent graph recovery. Notably, such an estimator achieves estimation consistency with only one tensor sample, which is unobserved in previous work.


Bayesian Inference for Structured Spike and Slab Priors

Neural Information Processing Systems

Sparse signal recovery addresses the problem of solving underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We propose a novel prior formulation, the structured spike and slab prior, which allows to incorporate a priori knowledge of the sparsity pattern by imposing a spatial Gaussian process on the spike and slab probabilities. Thus, prior information on the structure of the sparsity pattern can be encoded using generic covariance functions. Furthermore, we provide a Bayesian inference scheme for the proposed model based on the expectation propagation framework. Using numerical experiments on synthetic data, we demonstrate the benefits of the model.


Fast Classification Rates for High-dimensional Gaussian Generative Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the problem of binary classification when the covariates conditioned on the each of the response values follow multivariate Gaussian distributions. We focus on the setting where the covariance matrices for the two conditional distributions are the same. The corresponding generative model classifier, derived via the Bayes rule, also called Linear Discriminant Analysis, has been shown to behave poorly in high-dimensional settings. We present a novel analysis of the classification error of any linear discriminant approach given conditional Gaussian models. This allows us to compare the generative model classifier, other recently proposed discriminative approaches that directly learn the discriminant function, and then finally logistic regression which is another classical discriminative model classifier.


Density Estimation via Discrepancy Based Adaptive Sequential Partition

Neural Information Processing Systems

Given $iid$ observations from an unknown continuous distribution defined on some domain $\Omega$, we propose a nonparametric method to learn a piecewise constant function to approximate the underlying probability density function. Our density estimate is a piecewise constant function defined on a binary partition of $\Omega$. The key ingredient of the algorithm is to use discrepancy, a concept originates from Quasi Monte Carlo analysis, to control the partition process. The resulting algorithm is simple, efficient, and has provable convergence rate. We demonstrate empirically its efficiency as a density estimation method.


Flexible statistical inference for mechanistic models of neural dynamics

Neural Information Processing Systems

Mechanistic models of single-neuron dynamics have been extensively studied in computational neuroscience. However, identifying which models can quantitatively reproduce empirically measured data has been challenging. We propose to overcome this limitation by using likelihood-free inference approaches (also known as Approximate Bayesian Computation, ABC) to perform full Bayesian inference on single-neuron models. Our approach builds on recent advances in ABC by learning a neural network which maps features of the observed data to the posterior distribution over parameters. We learn a Bayesian mixture-density network approximating the posterior over multiple rounds of adaptively chosen simulations. Furthermore, we propose an efficient approach for handling missing features and parameter settings for which the simulator fails, as well as a strategy for automatically learning relevant features using recurrent neural networks.


Maximum Likelihood Learning With Arbitrary Treewidth via Fast-Mixing Parameter Sets

Neural Information Processing Systems

Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of tree-structured parameters. This paper explores an alternative notion of a tractable set, namely a set of "fast-mixing parameters" where Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference can be guaranteed to quickly converge to the stationary distribution. While it is common in practice to approximate the likelihood gradient using samples obtained from MCMC, such procedures lack theoretical guarantees. This paper proves that for any exponential family with bounded sufficient statistics, (not just graphical models) when parameters are constrained to a fast-mixing set, gradient descent with gradients approximated by sampling will approximate the maximum likelihood solution inside the set with high-probability.


Fast ε-free Inference of Simulation Models with Bayesian Conditional Density Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior over parameters by conditioning on data being inside an ε-ball around the observed data, which is only correct in the limit ε 0. Monte Carlo methods can then draw samples from the approximate posterior to approximate predictions or error bars on parameters. We propose a new approach to likelihood-free inference based on Bayesian conditional density estimation. Preliminary inferences based on limited simulation data are used to guide later simulations.