Uncertainty
Learning Additive Exponential Family Graphical Models via \ell_{2,1}-norm Regularized M-Estimation
Yuan, Xiaotong, Li, Ping, Zhang, Tong, Liu, Qingshan, Liu, Guangcan
We investigate a subclass of exponential family graphical models of which the sufficient statistics are defined by arbitrary additive forms. We propose two $\ell_{2,1}$-norm regularized maximum likelihood estimators to learn the model parameters from i.i.d. The first one is a joint MLE estimator which estimates all the parameters simultaneously. The second one is a node-wise conditional MLE estimator which estimates the parameters for each node individually. For both estimators, statistical analysis shows that under mild conditions the extra flexibility gained by the additive exponential family models comes at almost no cost of statistical efficiency.
Simple strategies for recovering inner products from coarsely quantized random projections
Random projections have been increasingly adopted for a diverse set of tasks in machine learning involving dimensionality reduction. One specific line of research on this topic has investigated the use of quantization subsequent to projection with the aim of additional data compression. Motivated by applications in nearest neighbor search and linear learning, we revisit the problem of recovering inner products (respectively cosine similarities) in such setting. We show that even under coarse scalar quantization with 3 to 5 bits per projection, the loss in accuracy tends to range from negligible'' to moderate''. One implication is that in most scenarios of practical interest, there is no need for a sophisticated recovery approach like maximum likelihood estimation as considered in previous work on the subject.
Coresets for Scalable Bayesian Logistic Regression
Huggins, Jonathan, Campbell, Trevor, Broderick, Tamara
The use of Bayesian methods in large-scale data settings is attractive because of the rich hierarchical models, uncertainty quantification, and prior specification they provide. Standard Bayesian inference algorithms are computationally expensive, however, making their direct application to large datasets difficult or infeasible. Recent work on scaling Bayesian inference has focused on modifying the underlying algorithms to, for example, use only a random data subsample at each iteration. We leverage the insight that data is often redundant to instead obtain a weighted subset of the data (called a coreset) that is much smaller than the original dataset. We can then use this small coreset in any number of existing posterior inference algorithms without modification.
Tractable Operations for Arithmetic Circuits of Probabilistic Models
Shen, Yujia, Choi, Arthur, Darwiche, Adnan
We consider tractable representations of probability distributions and the polytime operations they support. In particular, we consider a recently proposed arithmetic circuit representation, the Probabilistic Sentential Decision Diagram (PSDD). We show that PSDD supports a polytime multiplication operator, while they do not support a polytime operator for summing-out variables. A polytime multiplication operator make PSDDs suitable for a broader class of applications compared to arithmetic circuits, which do not in general support multiplication. As one example, we show that PSDD multiplication leads to a very simple but effective compilation algorithm for probabilistic graphical models: represent each model factor as a PSDD, and then multiply them.
Select-and-Sample for Spike-and-Slab Sparse Coding
Sheikh, Abdul-Saboor, Lücke, Jörg
Probabilistic inference serves as a popular model for neural processing. It is still unclear, however, how approximate probabilistic inference can be accurate and scalable to very high-dimensional continuous latent spaces. Especially as typical posteriors for sensory data can be expected to exhibit complex latent dependencies including multiple modes. Here, we study an approach that can efficiently be scaled while maintaining a richly structured posterior approximation under these conditions. As example model we use spike-and-slab sparse coding for V1 processing, and combine latent subspace selection with Gibbs sampling (select-and-sample).
Policy Gradient With Value Function Approximation For Collective Multiagent Planning
Nguyen, Duc Thien, Kumar, Akshat, Lau, Hoong Chuin
Decentralized (PO)MDPs provide an expressive framework for sequential decision making in a multiagent system. Given their computational complexity, recent research has focused on tractable yet practical subclasses of Dec-POMDPs. We address such a subclass called CDec-POMDP where the collective behavior of a population of agents affects the joint-reward and environment dynamics. Our main contribution is an actor-critic (AC) reinforcement learning method for optimizing CDec-POMDP policies. Vanilla AC has slow convergence for larger problems.
Gradient Estimation Using Stochastic Computation Graphs
Schulman, John, Heess, Nicolas, Weber, Theophane, Abbeel, Pieter
In a variety of problems originating in supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning, the loss function is defined by an expectation over a collection of random variables, which might be part of a probabilistic model or the external world. Estimating the gradient of this loss function, using samples, lies at the core of gradient-based learning algorithms for these problems. We introduce the formalism of stochastic computation graphs--directed acyclic graphs that include both deterministic functions and conditional probability distributions and describe how to easily and automatically derive an unbiased estimator of the loss function's gradient. The resulting algorithm for computing the gradient estimator is a simple modification of the standard backpropagation algorithm. The generic scheme we propose unifies estimators derived in variety of prior work, along with variance-reduction techniques therein.
On-the-Job Learning with Bayesian Decision Theory
Werling, Keenon, Chaganty, Arun Tejasvi, Liang, Percy S., Manning, Christopher D.
Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an "on-the-job" setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction when confident. As the model improves over time, the reliance on crowdsourcing queries decreases. We cast our setting as a stochastic game based on Bayesian decision theory, which allows us to balance latency, cost, and accuracy objectives in a principled way. Computing the optimal policy is intractable, so we develop an approximation based on Monte Carlo Tree Search.
Amortized Inference Regularization
Shu, Rui, Bui, Hung H., Zhao, Shengjia, Kochenderfer, Mykel J., Ermon, Stefano
The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model can be detrimental to the test set performance of both the amortized posterior approximator and, more importantly, the generative density estimator. In this paper, we leverage the fact that VAEs rely on amortized inference and propose techniques for amortized inference regularization (AIR) that control the smoothness of the inference model. We demonstrate that, by applying AIR, it is possible to improve VAE generalization on both inference and generative performance. Our paper challenges the belief that amortized inference is simply a mechanism for approximating maximum likelihood training and illustrates that regularization of the amortization family provides a new direction for understanding and improving generalization in VAEs.
Online Learning of Nonparametric Mixture Models via Sequential Variational Approximation
Reliance on computationally expensive algorithms for inference has been limiting the use of Bayesian nonparametric models in large scale applications. To tackle this problem, we propose a Bayesian learning algorithm for DP mixture models. Instead of following the conventional paradigm -- random initialization plus iterative update, we take an progressive approach. Starting with a given prior, our method recursively transforms it into an approximate posterior through sequential variational approximation. In this process, new components will be incorporated on the fly when needed.