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 Uncertainty


Inference Aided Reinforcement Learning for Incentive Mechanism Design in Crowdsourcing

Neural Information Processing Systems

Incentive mechanisms for crowdsourcing are designed to incentivize financially self-interested workers to generate and report high-quality labels. Existing mechanisms are often developed as one-shot static solutions, assuming a certain level of knowledge about worker models (expertise levels, costs for exerting efforts, etc.). In this paper, we propose a novel inference aided reinforcement mechanism that acquires data sequentially and requires no such prior assumptions. Specifically, we first design a Gibbs sampling augmented Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate workers' labeling strategies from the collected labels at each step. Then we propose a reinforcement incentive learning (RIL) method, building on top of the above estimates, to uncover how workers respond to different payments.


Excess Risk Bounds for the Bayes Risk using Variational Inference in Latent Gaussian Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bayesian models are established as one of the main successful paradigms for complex problems in machine learning. To handle intractable inference, research in this area has developed new approximation methods that are fast and effective. However, theoretical analysis of the performance of such approximations is not well developed. The paper furthers such analysis by providing bounds on the excess risk of variational inference algorithms and related regularized loss minimization algorithms for a large class of latent variable models with Gaussian latent variables. We strengthen previous results for variational algorithms by showing they are competitive with any point-estimate predictor.


Bayesian Inference and Online Experimental Design for Mapping Neural Microcircuits

Neural Information Processing Systems

We develop an inference and optimal design procedure for recovering synaptic weights in neural microcircuits. We base our procedure on data from an experiment in which populations of putative presynaptic neurons can be stimulated while a subthreshold recording is made from a single postsynaptic neuron. We present a realistic statistical model which accounts for the main sources of variability in this experiment and allows for large amounts of information about the biological system to be incorporated if available. We then present a simpler model to facilitate online experimental design which entails the use of efficient Bayesian inference. The optimized approach results in equal quality posterior estimates of the synaptic weights in roughly half the number of experimental trials under experimentally realistic conditions, tested on synthetic data generated from the full model.


Near-Optimal Smoothing of Structured Conditional Probability Matrices

Neural Information Processing Systems

Utilizing the structure of a probabilistic model can significantly increase its learning speed. Motivated by several recent applications, in particular bigram models in language processing, we consider learning low-rank conditional probability matrices under expected KL-risk. This choice makes smoothing, that is the careful handling of low-probability elements, paramount. We derive an iterative algorithm that extends classical non-negative matrix factorization to naturally incorporate additive smoothing and prove that it converges to the stationary points of a penalized empirical risk. We then derive sample-complexity bounds for the global minimizer of the penalized risk and show that it is within a small factor of the optimal sample complexity.


Learning Concave Conditional Likelihood Models for Improved Analysis of Tandem Mass Spectra

Neural Information Processing Systems

The most widely used technology to identify the proteins present in a complex biological sample is tandem mass spectrometry, which quickly produces a large collection of spectra representative of the peptides (i.e., protein subsequences) present in the original sample. In this work, we greatly expand the parameter learning capabilities of a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) peptide-scoring algorithm, Didea, by deriving emission distributions for which its conditional log-likelihood scoring function remains concave. We show that this class of emission distributions, called Convex Virtual Emissions (CVEs), naturally generalizes the log-sum-exp function while rendering both maximum likelihood estimation and conditional maximum likelihood estimation concave for a wide range of Bayesian networks. Utilizing CVEs in Didea allows efficient learning of a large number of parameters while ensuring global convergence, in stark contrast to Didea's previous parameter learning framework (which could only learn a single parameter using a costly grid search) and other trainable models (which only ensure convergence to local optima). The newly trained scoring function substantially outperforms the state-of-the-art in both scoring function accuracy and downstream Fisher kernel analysis.


Bayesian Estimation of Latently-grouped Parameters in Undirected Graphical Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

In large-scale applications of undirected graphical models, such as social networks and biological networks, similar patterns occur frequently and give rise to similar parameters. In this situation, it is beneficial to group the parameters for more efficient learning. We show that even when the grouping is unknown, we can infer these parameter groups during learning via a Bayesian approach. We impose a Dirichlet process prior on the parameters. Posterior inference usually involves calculating intractable terms, and we propose two approximation algorithms, namely a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with auxiliary variables and a Gibbs sampling algorithm with stripped Beta approximation (Gibbs_SBA).


Clone MCMC: Parallel High-Dimensional Gaussian Gibbs Sampling

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a generalized Gibbs sampler algorithm for obtaining samples approximately distributed from a high-dimensional Gaussian distribution. Similarly to Hogwild methods, our approach does not target the original Gaussian distribution of interest, but an approximation to it. Contrary to Hogwild methods, a single parameter allows us to trade bias for variance. We show empirically that our method is very flexible and performs well compared to Hogwild-type algorithms. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


Kernel Bayesian Inference with Posterior Regularization

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the posterior embedding estimator, which is faster and has comparable performance to the squared regularization in kernel Bayes' rule. This regularization coincides with a former thresholding approach used in kernel POMDPs whose consistency remains to be established. Our theoretical work solves this open problem and provides consistency analysis in regression settings.


Factorized Asymptotic Bayesian Inference for Latent Feature Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper extends factorized asymptotic Bayesian (FAB) inference for latent feature models (LFMs). FAB inference has not been applicable to models, including LFMs, without a specific condition on the Hesqsian matrix of a complete log-likelihood, which is required to derive a factorized information criterion'' (FIC). Our asymptotic analysis of the Hessian matrix of LFMs shows that FIC of LFMs has the same form as those of mixture models. FAB/LFMs have several desirable properties (e.g., automatic hidden states selection and parameter identifiability) and empirically perform better than state-of-the-art Indian Buffet processes in terms of model selection, prediction, and computational efficiency." Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


Q-LDA: Uncovering Latent Patterns in Text-based Sequential Decision Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

In sequential decision making, it is often important and useful for end users to understand the underlying patterns or causes that lead to the corresponding decisions. However, typical deep reinforcement learning algorithms seldom provide such information due to their black-box nature. In this paper, we present a probabilistic model, Q-LDA, to uncover latent patterns in text-based sequential decision processes. The model can be understood as a variant of latent topic models that are tailored to maximize total rewards; we further draw an interesting connection between an approximate maximum-likelihood estimation of Q-LDA and the celebrated Q-learning algorithm. We demonstrate in the text-game domain that our proposed method not only provides a viable mechanism to uncover latent patterns in decision processes, but also obtains state-of-the-art rewards in these games. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.