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 Uncertainty


Bayesian Bias Mitigation for Crowdsourcing

Neural Information Processing Systems

Biased labelers are a systemic problem in crowdsourcing, and a comprehensive toolbox for handling their responses is still being developed. A typical crowdsourcing application can be divided into three steps: data collection, data curation, and learning. At present these steps are often treated separately. We present Bayesian Bias Mitigation for Crowdsourcing (BBMC), a Bayesian model to unify all three. Most data curation methods account for the {\it effects} of labeler bias by modeling all labels as coming from a single latent truth.


Fully Bayesian inference for neural models with negative-binomial spiking

Neural Information Processing Systems

Characterizing the information carried by neural populations in the brain requires accurate statistical models of neural spike responses. The negative-binomial distribution provides a convenient model for over-dispersed spike counts, that is, responses with greater-than-Poisson variability. Here we describe a powerful data-augmentation framework for fully Bayesian inference in neural models with negative-binomial spiking. Our approach relies on a recently described latent-variable representation of the negative-binomial distribution, which equates it to a Polya-gamma mixture of normals. This framework provides a tractable, conditionally Gaussian representation of the posterior that can be used to design efficient EM and Gibbs sampling based algorithms for inference in regression and dynamic factor models.


Probabilistic Joint Image Segmentation and Labeling

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a joint image segmentation and labeling model (JSL) which, given a bag of figure-ground segment hypotheses extracted at multiple image locations and scales, constructs a joint probability distribution over both the compatible image interpretations (tilings or image segmentations) composed from those segments, and over their labeling into categories. The process of drawing samples from the joint distribution can be interpreted as first sampling tilings, modeled as maximal cliques, from a graph connecting spatially non-overlapping segments in the bag, followed by sampling labels for those segments, conditioned on the choice of a particular tiling. We learn the segmentation and labeling parameters jointly, based on Maximum Likelihood with a novel Incremental Saddle Point estimation procedure. The partition function over tilings and labelings is increasingly more accurately approximated by including incorrect configurations that a not-yet-competent model rates probable during learning. We show that the proposed methodology matches the current state of the art in the Stanford dataset, as well as in VOC2010, where 41.7% accuracy on the test set is achieved.


Sparse Bayesian Multi-Task Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new sparse Bayesian model for multi-task regression and classification. The model is able to capture correlations between tasks, or more specifically a low-rank approximation of the covariance matrix, while being sparse in the features. We introduce a general family of group sparsity inducing priors based on matrix-variate Gaussian scale mixtures. We show the amount of sparsity can be learnt from the data by combining an approximate inference approach with type II maximum likelihood estimation of the hyperparameters. Empirical evaluations on data sets from biology and vision demonstrate the applicability of the model, where on both regression and classification tasks it achieves competitive predictive performance compared to previously proposed methods.


Persistent Homology for Learning Densities with Bounded Support

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a novel method for learning densities with bounded support which enables us to incorporate hard' topological constraints. In particular, we show how emerging techniques from computational algebraic topology and the notion of Persistent Homology can be combined with kernel based methods from Machine Learning for the purpose of density estimation. The proposed formalism facilitates learning of models with bounded support in a principled way, and -- by incorporating Persistent Homology techniques in our approach -- we are able to encode algebraic-topological constraints which are not addressed in current state-of the art probabilistic models. We study the behaviour of our method on two synthetic examples for various sample sizes and exemplify the benefits of the proposed approach on a real-world data-set by learning a motion model for a racecar. We show how to learn a model which respects the underlying topological structure of the racetrack, constraining the trajectories of the car.


Kernel Bayes' Rule

Neural Information Processing Systems

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on kernel representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed as empirical kernel mean and covariance operators, respectively, and the kernel mean of the posterior distribution is computed in the form of a weighted sample. The kernel Bayes' rule can be applied to a wide variety of Bayesian inference problems: we demonstrate Bayesian computation without likelihood, and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model. A consistency rate for the posterior estimate is established. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


Bayesian Spike-Triggered Covariance Analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Neurons typically respond to a restricted number of stimulus features within the high-dimensional space of natural stimuli. Here we describe an explicit model-based interpretation of traditional estimators for a neuron's multi-dimensional feature space, which allows for several important generalizations and extensions. First, we show that traditional estimators based on the spike-triggered average (STA) and spike-triggered covariance (STC) can be formalized in terms of the "expected log-likelihood" of a Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson (LNP) model with Gaussian stimuli. This model-based formulation allows us to define maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimators that are statistically consistent and efficient in a wider variety of settings, such as with naturalistic (non-Gaussian) stimuli. It also allows us to employ Bayesian methods for regularization, smoothing, sparsification, and model comparison, and provides Bayesian confidence intervals on model parameters.


Comparative Analysis of Viterbi Training and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for HMMs

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy.


Infinite Latent SVM for Classification and Multi-task Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Unlike existing nonparametric Bayesian models, which rely solely on specially conceived priors to incorporate domain knowledge for discovering improved latent representations, we study nonparametric Bayesian inference with regularization on the desired posterior distributions. While priors can indirectly affect posterior distributions through Bayes' theorem, imposing posterior regularization is arguably more direct and in some cases can be much easier. We particularly focus on developing infinite latent support vector machines (iLSVM) and multi-task infinite latent support vector machines (MT-iLSVM), which explore the large-margin idea in combination with a nonparametric Bayesian model for discovering predictive latent features for classification and multi-task learning, respectively. We present efficient inference methods and report empirical studies on several benchmark datasets. Our results appear to demonstrate the merits inherited from both large-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics.


Bayesian Warped Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Warped Gaussian processes (WGP) [1] model output observations in regression tasks as a parametric nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process (GP). The use of this nonlinear transformation, which is included as part of the probabilistic model, was shown to enhance performance by providing a better prior model on several data sets. In order to learn its parameters, maximum likelihood was used. In this work we show that it is possible to use a non-parametric nonlinear transformation in WGP and variationally integrate it out. The resulting Bayesian WGP is then able to work in scenarios in which the maximum likelihood WGP failed: Low data regime, data with censored values, classification, etc.