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 Uncertainty


Bayesian Experimental Design of Magnetic Resonance Imaging Sequences

Neural Information Processing Systems

We show how improved sequences for magnetic resonance imaging can be found through automated optimization of Bayesian design scores. Combining recent advances in approximate Bayesian inference and natural image statistics with high-performance numerical computation, we propose the first scalable Bayesian experimental design framework for this problem of high relevance to clinical and brain research. Our solution requires approximate inference for dense, non-Gaussian models on a scale seldom addressed before. We propose a novel scalable variational inference algorithm, and show how powerful methods of numerical mathematics can be modified to compute primitives in our framework. Our approach is evaluated on a realistic setup with raw data from a 3T MR scanner.


Spatial Normalized Gamma Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Dependent Dirichlet processes (DPs) are dependent sets of random measures, each being marginally Dirichlet process distributed. They are used in Bayesian nonparametric models when the usual exchangebility assumption does not hold. We propose a simple and general framework to construct dependent DPs by marginalizing and normalizing a single gamma process over an extended space. The result is a set of DPs, each located at a point in a space such that neighboring DPs are more dependent. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo inference, involving the typical Gibbs sampling and three different Metropolis-Hastings proposals to speed up convergence.


An Approximate Inference Approach to Temporal Optimization in Optimal Control

Neural Information Processing Systems

Algorithms based on iterative local approximations present a practical approach to optimal control in robotic systems. However, they generally require the temporal parameters (for e.g. the movement duration or the time point of reaching an intermediate goal) to be specified \textit{a priori}. Here, we present a methodology that is capable of jointly optimising the temporal parameters in addition to the control command profiles. The presented approach is based on a Bayesian canonical time formulation of the optimal control problem, with the temporal mapping from canonical to real time parametrised by an additional control variable. An approximate EM algorithm is derived that efficiently optimises both the movement duration and control commands offering, for the first time, a practical approach to tackling generic via point problems in a systematic way under the optimal control framework.


Robust Value Function Approximation Using Bilinear Programming

Neural Information Processing Systems

Existing value function approximation methods have been successfully used in many applications, but they often lack useful a priori error bounds. We propose approximate bilinear programming, a new formulation of value function approximation that provides strong a priori guarantees. In particular, it provably finds an approximate value function that minimizes the Bellman residual. Solving a bilinear program optimally is NP hard, but this is unavoidable because the Bellman-residual minimization itself is NP hard. We, therefore, employ and analyze a common approximate algorithm for bilinear programs.


A New Probabilistic Model for Rank Aggregation

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper is concerned with rank aggregation, which aims to combine multiple input rankings to get a better ranking. A popular approach to rank aggregation is based on probabilistic models on permutations, e.g., the Luce model and the Mallows model. However, these models have their limitations in either poor expressiveness or high computational complexity. To avoid these limitations, in this paper, we propose a new model, which is defined with a coset-permutation distance, and models the generation of a permutation as a stagewise process. We refer to the new model as coset-permutation distance based stagewise (CPS) model.


Submanifold density estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Kernel density estimation is the most widely-used practical method for accurate nonparametric density estimation. However, long-standing worst-case theoretical results showing that its performance worsens exponentially with the dimension of the data have quashed its application to modern high-dimensional datasets for decades. In practice, it has been recognized that often such data have a much lower-dimensional intrinsic structure. We propose a small modification to kernel density estimation for estimating probability density functions on Riemannian submanifolds of Euclidean space. Using ideas from Riemannian geometry, we prove the consistency of this modified estimator and show that the convergence rate is determined by the intrinsic dimension of the submanifold.


Construction of Nonparametric Bayesian Models from Parametric Bayes Equations

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the general problem of constructing nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite-dimensional random objects, such as functions, infinite graphs or infinite permutations. The problem has generated much interest in machine learning, where it is treated heuristically, but has not been studied in full generality in nonparametric Bayesian statistics, which tends to focus on models over probability distributions. Our approach applies a standard tool of stochastic process theory, the construction of stochastic processes from their finite-dimensional marginal distributions. The main contribution of the paper is a generalization of the classic Kolmogorov extension theorem to conditional probabilities. This extension allows a rigorous construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from systems of finite-dimensional, parametric Bayes equations.


Large Scale Nonparametric Bayesian Inference: Data Parallelisation in the Indian Buffet Process

Neural Information Processing Systems

Nonparametric Bayesian models provide a framework for flexible probabilistic modelling of complex datasets. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference methods often require high-dimensional averages and can be slow to compute, especially with the potentially unbounded representations associated with nonparametric models. We address the challenge of scaling nonparametric Bayesian inference to the increasingly large datasets found in real-world applications, focusing on the case of parallelising inference in the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Our approach divides a large data set between multiple processors. The processors use message passing to compute likelihoods in an asynchronous, distributed fashion and to propagate statistics about the global Bayesian posterior.


On the Efficient Minimization of Classification Calibrated Surrogates

Neural Information Processing Systems

Bartlett et al (2006) recently proved that a ground condition for convex surrogates, classification calibration, ties up the minimization of the surrogates and classification risks, and left as an important problem the algorithmic questions about the minimization of these surrogates. In this paper, we propose an algorithm which provably minimizes any classification calibrated surrogate strictly convex and differentiable --- a set whose losses span the exponential, logistic and squared losses ---, with boosting-type guaranteed convergence rates under a weak learning assumption. A particular subclass of these surrogates, that we call balanced convex surrogates, has a key rationale that ties it to maximum likelihood estimation, zero-sum games and the set of losses that satisfy some of the most common requirements for losses in supervised learning. We report experiments on more than 50 readily available domains of 11 flavors of the algorithm, that shed light on new surrogates, and the potential of data dependent strategies to tune surrogates. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.


Approximate inference in continuous time Gaussian-Jump processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a novel approach to inference in conditionally Gaussian continuous time stochastic processes, where the latent process is a Markovian jump process. We first consider the case of jump-diffusion processes, where the drift of a linear stochastic differential equation can jump at arbitrary time points. We derive partial differential equations for exact inference and present a very efficient mean field approximation. By introducing a novel lower bound on the free energy, we then generalise our approach to Gaussian processes with arbitrary covariance, such as the non-Markovian RBF covariance. We present results on both simulated and real data, showing that the approach is very accurate in capturing latent dynamics and can be useful in a number of real data modelling tasks.