Uncertainty
Algorithms and matching lower bounds for approximately-convex optimization
In recent years, a rapidly increasing number of applications in practice requires solving non-convex objectives, like training neural networks, learning graphical models, maximum likelihood estimation etc. Though simple heuristics such as gradient descent with very few modifications tend to work well, theoretical understanding is very weak. We consider possibly the most natural class of non-convex functions where one could hope to obtain provable guarantees: functions that are approximately convex'', i.e. functions $\tf: \Real d \to \Real$ for which there exists a \emph{convex function} $f$ such that for all $x$, $ \tf(x) - f(x) \le \errnoise$ for a fixed value $\errnoise$. It is quite natural to conjecture that for fixed $\err$, the problem gets harder for larger $\errnoise$, however, the exact dependency of $\err$ and $\errnoise$ is not known. In this paper, we strengthen the known \emph{information theoretic} lower bounds on the trade-off between $\err$ and $\errnoise$ substantially, and exhibit an algorithm that matches these lower bounds for a large class of convex bodies.
A Filtering Approach to Stochastic Variational Inference
Stochastic variational inference (SVI) uses stochastic optimization to scale up Bayesian computation to massive data. We present an alternative perspective on SVI as approximate parallel coordinate ascent. SVI trades-off bias and variance to step close to the unknown true coordinate optimum given by batch variational Bayes (VB). We define a model to automate this process. As a consequence of this construction, we update the variational parameters using Bayes rule, rather than a hand-crafted optimization schedule.
Tractable Bayesian Network Structure Learning with Bounded Vertex Cover Number
Korhonen, Janne H., Parviainen, Pekka
Both learning and inference tasks on Bayesian networks are NP-hard in general. Bounded tree-width Bayesian networks have recently received a lot of attention as a way to circumvent this complexity issue; however, while inference on bounded tree-width networks is tractable, the learning problem remains NP-hard even for tree-width 2. In this paper, we propose bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks as an alternative to bounded tree-width networks. In particular, we show that both inference and learning can be done in polynomial time for any fixed vertex cover number bound $k$, in contrast to the general and bounded tree-width cases; on the other hand, we also show that learning problem is W[1]-hard in parameter $k$. Furthermore, we give an alternative way to learn bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks using integer linear programming (ILP), and show this is feasible in practice. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.
Direct Importance Estimation with Model Selection and Its Application to Covariate Shift Adaptation
Sugiyama, Masashi, Nakajima, Shinichi, Kashima, Hisashi, Buenau, Paul V., Kawanabe, Motoaki
When training and test samples follow different input distributions (i.e., the situation called \emph{covariate shift}), the maximum likelihood estimator is known to lose its consistency. For regaining consistency, the log-likelihood terms need to be weighted according to the \emph{importance} (i.e., the ratio of test and training input densities). Thus, accurately estimating the importance is one of the key tasks in covariate shift adaptation. A naive approach is to first estimate training and test input densities and then estimate the importance by the ratio of the density estimates. However, since density estimation is a hard problem, this approach tends to perform poorly especially in high dimensional cases.
A Bayesian Model of Conditioned Perception
Stocker, Alan A., Simoncelli, Eero P.
We propose an extended probabilistic model for human perception. We argue that in many circumstances, human observers simultaneously evaluate sensory evidence under different hypotheses regarding the underlying physical process that might have generated the sensory information. Within this context, inference can be optimal if the observer weighs each hypothesis according to the correct belief in that hypothesis. But if the observer commits to a particular hypothesis, the belief in that hypothesis is converted into subjective certainty, and subsequent perceptual behavior is suboptimal, conditioned only on the chosen hypothesis. We demonstrate that this framework can explain psychophysical data of a recently reported decision-estimation experiment.
Local Algorithms for Approximate Inference in Minor-Excluded Graphs
We present a new local approximation algorithm for computing MAP and log-partition function for arbitrary exponential family distribution represented by a finite-valued pair-wise Markov random field (MRF), say G. Our algorithm is based on decomposing G into appropriately chosen small components; computing estimates locally in each of these components and then producing a good global solution. We prove that the algorithm can provide approximate solution within arbitrary accuracy when $G$ excludes some finite sized graph as its minor and G has bounded degree: all Planar graphs with bounded degree are examples of such graphs. The running time of the algorithm is $\Theta(n)$ (n is the number of nodes in G), with constant dependent on accuracy, degree of graph and size of the graph that is excluded as a minor (constant for Planar graphs). Our algorithm for minor-excluded graphs uses the decomposition scheme of Klein, Plotkin and Rao (1993). In general, our algorithm works with any decomposition scheme and provides quantifiable approximation guarantee that depends on the decomposition scheme.
Optimal models of sound localization by barn owls
Sound localization by barn owls is commonly modeled as a matching procedure where localization cues derived from auditory inputs are compared to stored templates. While the matching models can explain properties of neural responses, no model explains how the owl resolves spatial ambiguity in the localization cues to produce accurate localization near the center of gaze. Here, we examine two models for the barn owl's sound localization behavior. First, we consider a maximum likelihood estimator in order to further evaluate the cue matching model. Second, we consider a maximum a posteriori estimator to test if a Bayesian model with a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze can reproduce the owl's localization behavior.
Stochastic Relational Models for Large-scale Dyadic Data using MCMC
Zhu, Shenghuo, Yu, Kai, Gong, Yihong
Stochastic relational models provide a rich family of choices for learning and predicting dyadic data between two sets of entities. Previously empirical Bayesian inference was applied, which is however not scalable when the size of either object sets becomes tens of thousands. In this paper, we introduce a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to scale the model to very large-scale dyadic data. Both superior scalability and predictive accuracy are demonstrated on a collaborative filtering problem, which involves tens of thousands users and a half million items. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.
Posterior Consistency of the Silverman g-prior in Bayesian Model Choice
Zhang, Zhihua, Jordan, Michael I., Yeung, Dit-Yan
Kernel supervised learning methods can be unified by utilizing the tools from regularization theory. The duality between regularization and prior leads to interpreting regularization methods in terms of maximum a posteriori estimation and has motivated Bayesian interpretations of kernel methods. In this paper we pursue a Bayesian interpretation of sparsity in the kernel setting by making use of a mixture of a point-mass distribution and prior that we refer to as Silverman's g-prior.'' We provide a theoretical analysis of the posterior consistency of a Bayesian model choice procedure based on this prior. We also establish the asymptotic relationship between this procedure and the Bayesian information criterion.
Large Margin Learning of Upstream Scene Understanding Models
Zhu, Jun, Li, Li-jia, Fei-fei, Li, Xing, Eric P.
Upstream supervised topic models have been widely used for complicated scene understanding. However, existing maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) schemes can make the prediction model learning independent of latent topic discovery and result in an imbalanced prediction rule for scene classification. This paper presents a joint max-margin and max-likelihood learning method for upstream scene understanding models, in which latent topic discovery and prediction model estimation are closely coupled and well-balanced. The optimization problem is efficiently solved with a variational EM procedure, which iteratively solves an online loss-augmented SVM. We demonstrate the advantages of the large-margin approach on both an 8-category sports dataset and the 67-class MIT indoor scene dataset for scene categorization. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.