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 Uncertainty


A Unified Framework for Gaussian Mixture Reduction with Composite Transportation Distance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian mixture reduction (GMR) is the problem of approximating a finite Gaussian mixture by one with fewer components. It is widely used in density estimation, nonparametric belief propagation, and Bayesian recursive filtering. Although optimization and clustering-based algorithms have been proposed for GMR, they are either computationally expensive or lacking in theoretical supports. In this work, we propose to perform GMR by minimizing the entropic regularized composite transportation distance between two mixtures. We show our approach provides a unified framework for GMR that is both interpretable and computationally efficient. Our work also bridges the gap between optimization and clustering-based approaches for GMR. A Majorization-Minimization algorithm is developed for our optimization problem and its theoretical convergence is also established in this paper. Empirical experiments are also conducted to show the effectiveness of GMR. The effect of the choice of transportation cost on the performance of GMR is also investigated.


Learning Bijective Feature Maps for Linear ICA

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Separating high-dimensional data like images into independent latent factors remains an open research problem. Here we develop a method that jointly learns a linear independent component analysis (ICA) model with non-linear bijective feature maps. By combining these two methods, ICA can learn interpretable latent structure for images. For non-square ICA, where we assume the number of sources is less than the dimensionality of data, we achieve better unsupervised latent factor discovery than flow-based models and linear ICA. This performance scales to large image datasets such as CelebA.


Observational nonidentifiability, generalized likelihood and free energy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the parameter estimation problem in mixture models with observational nonidentifiability: the full model (also containing hidden variables) is identifiable, but the marginal (observed) model is not. Hence global maxima of the marginal likelihood are (infinitely) degenerate and predictions of the marginal likelihood are not unique. We show how to generalize the marginal likelihood by introducing an effective temperature, and making it similar to the free energy. This generalization resolves the observational nonidentifiability, since its maximization leads to unique results that are better than a random selection of one degenerate maximum of the marginal likelihood or the averaging over many such maxima. The generalized likelihood inherits many features from the usual likelihood, e.g. it holds the conditionality principle, and its local maximum can be searched for via suitably modified expectation-maximization method. The maximization of the generalized likelihood relates to entropy optimization.


Being Bayesian about Categorical Probability

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural networks utilize the softmax as a building block in classification tasks, which contains an overconfidence problem and lacks an uncertainty representation ability. As a Bayesian alternative to the softmax, we consider a random variable of a categorical probability over class labels. In this framework, the prior distribution explicitly models the presumed noise inherent in the observed label, which provides consistent gains in generalization performance in multiple challenging tasks. The proposed method inherits advantages of Bayesian approaches that achieve better uncertainty estimation and model calibration. Our method can be implemented as a plug-and-play loss function with negligible computational overhead compared to the softmax with the cross-entropy loss function.


Source Separation with Deep Generative Priors

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite substantial progress in signal source separation, results for richly structured data continue to contain perceptible artifacts. In contrast, recent deep generative models can produce authentic samples in a variety of domains that are indistinguishable from samples of the data distribution. This paper introduces a Bayesian approach to source separation that uses generative models as priors over the components of a mixture of sources, and Langevin dynamics to sample from the posterior distribution of sources given a mixture. This decouples the source separation problem from generative modeling, enabling us to directly use cutting-edge generative models as priors. The method achieves state-of-the-art performance for MNIST digit separation. We introduce new methodology for evaluating separation quality on richer datasets, providing quantitative evaluation of separation results on CIFAR-10. We also provide qualitative results on LSUN.


Constraining the recent star formation history of galaxies : an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

[Abridged] Although galaxies are found to follow a tight relation between their star formation rate and stellar mass, they are expected to exhibit complex star formation histories (SFH), with short-term fluctuations. The goal of this pilot study is to present a method that will identify galaxies that are undergoing a strong variation of star formation activity in the last tens to hundreds Myr. In other words, the proposed method will determine whether a variation in the last few hundreds of Myr of the SFH is needed to properly model the SED rather than a smooth normal SFH. To do so, we analyze a sample of COSMOS galaxies using high signal-to-noise ratio broad band photometry. We apply Approximate Bayesian Computation, a state-of-the-art statistical method to perform model choice, associated to machine learning algorithms to provide the probability that a flexible SFH is preferred based on the observed flux density ratios of galaxies. We present the method and test it on a sample of simulated SEDs. The input information fed to the algorithm is a set of broadband UV to NIR (rest-frame) flux ratios for each galaxy. The method has an error rate of 21% in recovering the right SFH and is sensitive to SFR variations larger than 1 dex. A more traditional SED fitting method using CIGALE is tested to achieve the same goal, based on fits comparisons through Bayesian Information Criterion but the best error rate obtained is higher, 28%. We apply our new method to the COSMOS galaxies sample. The stellar mass distribution of galaxies with a strong to decisive evidence against the smooth delayed-$\tau$ SFH peaks at lower M* compared to galaxies where the smooth delayed-$\tau$ SFH is preferred. We discuss the fact that this result does not come from any bias due to our training. Finally, we argue that flexible SFHs are needed to be able to cover that largest SFR-M* parameter space possible.


Sequential Cooperative Bayesian Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning often occurs sequentially, as opposed to in batch, and from data provided by other agents, as opposed to from a fixed random sampling process. The canonical example of sequential learning from an agent occurs in educational contexts where the other agent is a teacher whose goal is to help the learner. However, instances appear across a wide range of contexts including informal learning, language, and robotics. In contrast with typical contexts considered in machine learning, it is reasonable to expect the cooperative agent to adapt their sampling process after each trial, consistent with the goal of helping the learner learn more quickly. It is also reasonable to expect that learners, in dealing with such cooperative agents, would know the other agent intends to cooperate and incorporate that knowledge when updating their beliefs.


A Neural Network Based on First Principles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, a Neural network is derived from first principles, assuming only that each layer begins with a linear dimension-reducing transformation. The approach appeals to the principle of Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) to find the posterior distribution of the input data of each layer, conditioned on the layer output variables. This posterior has a well-defined mean, the conditional mean estimator, that is calculated using a type of neural network with theoretically-derived activation functions similar to sigmoid, softplus, and relu. This implicitly provides a theoretical justification for their use. A theorem that finds the conditional distribution and conditional mean estimator under the MaxEnt prior is proposed, unifying results for special cases. Combining layers results in an auto-encoder with conventional feed-forward analysis network and a type of linear Bayesian belief network in the reconstruction path.


An Overview of Distance and Similarity Functions for Structured Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The notions of distance and similarity play a key role in many machine learning approaches, and artificial intelligence (AI) in general, since they can serve as an organizing principle by which individuals classify objects, form concepts and make generalizations. While distance functions for propositional representations have been thoroughly studied, work on distance functions for structured representations, such as graphs, frames or logical clauses, has been carried out in different communities and is much less understood. Specifically, a significant amount of work that requires the use of a distance or similarity function for structured representations of data usually employs ad-hoc functions for specific applications. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to provide an overview of this work to identify connections between the work carried out in different areas and point out directions for future work.


KoGuN: Accelerating Deep Reinforcement Learning via Integrating Human Suboptimal Knowledge

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning agents usually learn from scratch, which requires a large number of interactions with the environment. This is quite different from the learning process of human. When faced with a new task, human naturally have the common sense and use the prior knowledge to derive an initial policy and guide the learning process afterwards. Although the prior knowledge may be not fully applicable to the new task, the learning process is significantly sped up since the initial policy ensures a quick-start of learning and intermediate guidance allows to avoid unnecessary exploration. Taking this inspiration, we propose knowledge guided policy network (KoGuN), a novel framework that combines human prior suboptimal knowledge with reinforcement learning. Our framework consists of a fuzzy rule controller to represent human knowledge and a refine module to fine-tune suboptimal prior knowledge. The proposed framework is end-to-end and can be combined with existing policy-based reinforcement learning algorithm. We conduct experiments on both discrete and continuous control tasks. The empirical results show that our approach, which combines human suboptimal knowledge and RL, achieves significant improvement on learning efficiency of flat RL algorithms, even with very low-performance human prior knowledge.