Bayesian Network models are a powerful tool to collaboratively optimize production processes in various manufacturing industries. When interacting, collaborating parties must preserve their business secrets by maintaining the confidentiality of their model structures and parameters. While most realistic industry scenarios involve hybrid settings, handling both discrete and continuous data, current state-of-the-art methods for collaborative and confidential inference only support discrete data and have high communication costs. In a centralized setting, Junction Trees enable efficient inference even in hybrid scenarios without discretizing continuous variables, but no extension for collaborative and confidential scenarios exists. To address this research gap, we introduce Hybrid CCJT, the first framework for confidential multiparty inference in hybrid domains with semi-honest, non-colluding adversaries, comprising: (i) a method to construct a strongly-rooted Junction Tree across collaborating parties through a novel construct of interface cliques; and, (ii) a protocol for confidential inference built upon multiparty computation primitives comprising a one-time alignment phase and a belief propagation system for combining the inference results across the Junction Tree cliques. Extensive evaluation on nine datasets shows that Hybrid CCJT improves the predictive accuracy of continuous target variables by 32% on average compared to the state-of-the-art, while reducing communication costs by a median 10.4x under purely discrete scenarios.

Density estimation is essential for generative modeling, particularly with the rise of modern neural networks. While existing methods capture complex data distributions, they often lack interpretability and uncertainty quantification.

Probabilistic reasoning is a key aspect of both human and artificial intelligence that allows for handling uncertainty and ambiguity in decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a new numerical reasoning task under uncertainty for large language models, focusing on estimating the privacy risk of user-generated documents containing privacy-sensitive information. We propose BRANCH, a new LLM methodology that estimates the $k$-privacy value of a text--the size of the population matching the given information.

We introduce a novel framework for differentially private (DP) statistical estimation via data truncation, addressing a key challenge in DP estimation when the data support is unbounded. Traditional approaches rely on problem-specific sensitivity analysis, limiting their applicability. By leveraging techniques from truncated statistics, we develop computationally efficient DP estimators for exponential family distributions, including Gaussian mean and covariance estimation, achieving near-optimal sample complexity. Previous works on exponential families only consider bounded or one-dimensional families. Our approach mitigates sensitivity through truncation while carefully correcting for the introduced bias using maximum likelihood estimation and DP stochastic gradient descent. Along the way, we establish improved uniform convergence guarantees for the log-likelihood function of exponential families, which may be of independent interest. Our results provide a general blueprint for DP algorithm design via truncated statistics.

Reinforcement learning with general utilities (RLGU) offers a unifying framework to capture several problems beyond standard expected returns, including imitation learning, pure exploration, and safe RL. Despite recent fundamental advances in the theoretical analysis of policy gradient (PG) methods for standard RL and recent efforts in RLGU, the understanding of these PG algorithms and their scope of application in RLGU still remain limited. In this work, we establish global optimality guarantees of PG methods for RLGU in which the objective is a general concave utility function of the state-action occupancy measure. In the tabular setting, we provide global optimality results using a new proof technique building on recent theoretical developments on the convergence of PG methods for standard RL using gradient domination. Our proof technique opens avenues for analyzing policy parameterizations beyond the direct policy parameterization for RLGU. In addition, we provide global optimality results for large state-action space settings beyond prior work which has mostly focused on the tabular setting. In this large scale setting, we adapt PG methods by approximating occupancy measures within a function approximation class using maximum likelihood estimation. Our sample complexity only scales with the dimension induced by our approximation class instead of the size of the state-action space.

Human behavior is characterized by continuous learning to reduce uncertainties about the world in pursuit of goals. When trying to understand such behavior from observations, it is essential to account for this adaptive nature and reason about the uncertainties that may have led to seemingly suboptimal decisions. Nevertheless, most inverse approaches to sequential decision-making focus on inferring cost functions underlying stationary behavior or are limited to low-dimensional tasks. In this paper, we address this gap by considering the problem of inferring an agent's knowledge or awareness about the environment based on a given trajectory. We assume that the agent aims to reach a goal in an environment they only partially know, and integrates new information into their plan as they act. We propose a Bayesian approach to infer their latent knowledge state, leveraging an approximate navigation model that optimistically incorporates partial information while accounting for uncertainty. By combining sample-based Bayesian inference with dynamic graph algorithms, we achieve an efficient method for computing posterior beliefs about the agent's knowledge. Empirical validation using simulated behavioral data and human data from an online experiment demonstrates that our model effectively captures human navigation under uncertainty and reveals interpretable insights into their environmental knowledge.

The widespread use of generative models has created a feedback loop in which each generation of models is trained on data partially produced by its predecessors. This process has raised concerns about model collapse: A critical degradation in performance caused by repeated training on synthetic data. However, different analyses in the literature have reached different conclusions as to the severity of model collapse. As such, it remains unclear how concerning this phenomenon is, and under which assumptions it can be avoided. To address this, we theoretically study model collapse for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), in a natural setting where synthetic data is gradually added to the original training set. Under standard assumptions (similar to those long used for proving asymptotic consistency and normality of MLE), we establish non-asymptotic bounds showing that collapse can be avoided even as the fraction of real data vanishes. On the other hand, we prove that some assumptions (beyond MLE consistency) are indeed necessary: Without them, model collapse can occur arbitrarily quickly, even when the original data is still present in the training set. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous examples of iterative generative modeling with accumulating data that rapidly leads to model collapse.

We propose a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for sampling from unnormalized target distributions based on a reverse denoising diffusion process. While recent diffusion-based samplers simulate the reverse diffusion using approximate score functions, they can suffer from accumulating errors due to time discretization and imperfect score estimation. In this work, we introduce a principled SMC framework that formalizes diffusion-based samplers as proposals while systematically correcting for their biases. The core idea is to construct informative intermediate target distributions that progressively steer the sampling trajectory toward the final target distribution. Although ideal intermediate targets are intractable, we develop \emph{exact approximations} using quantities from the score estimation-based proposal, without requiring additional model training or inference overhead. The resulting sampler, termed \textit{\ourmethodfull}, enables consistent sampling and unbiased estimation of the target's normalization constant under mild conditions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a range of synthetic targets and real-world Bayesian inference problems.

Task planning under uncertainty is essential for home-service robots operating in the real world. Tasks involve ambiguous human instructions, hidden or unknown object locations, and open-vocabulary object types, leading to significant open-ended uncertainty and a boundlessly large planning space. To address these challenges, we propose Tru-POMDP, a planner that combines structured belief generation using Large Language Models (LLMs) with principled POMDP planning. Tru-POMDP introduces a hierarchical Tree of Hypotheses (TOH), which systematically queries an LLM to construct high-quality particle beliefs over possible world states and human goals. We further formulate an open-ended POMDP model that enables rigorous Bayesian belief tracking and efficient belief-space planning over these LLM-generated hypotheses. Experiments on complex object rearrangement tasks across diverse kitchen environments show that Tru-POMDP significantly outperforms state-of-the-art LLM-based and LLM-tree-search hybrid planners, achieving higher success rates with significantly better plans, stronger robustness to ambiguity and occlusion, and greater planning efficiency.

Many decision-making processes involve evaluating and selecting items, including scientific peer review, job hiring, school admissions, and investment decisions. These domains feature error-prone evaluations and uncertainty about outcomes, which undermine deterministic selection rules. Consequently, randomized selection mechanisms are gaining traction. However, current randomized approaches are ad hoc and, as we prove, inappropriate for their purported objectives. We propose a principled framework for randomized decision-making based on interval estimates of item quality. We introduce MERIT (Maximin Efficient Randomized Interval Top-$k$), which maximizes the worst-case expected number of top candidates selected under uncertainty represented by overlapping intervals. MERIT provides optimal resource allocation under an interpretable robustness notion. We develop a polynomial-time, practically efficient algorithm and prove our approach satisfies desirable axiomatic properties not guaranteed by existing methods. Experiments on synthetic peer review data from grant funding and conferences demonstrate that MERIT matches existing algorithms' expected utility under fully probabilistic models while outperforming them under our worst-case formulation.