A Machine can only learn if it is biased in some way. Typically the bias is supplied by hand, for example through the choice of an appropriate set of features. However, if the learning machine is embedded within an {\em environment} of related tasks, then it can {\em learn} its own bias by learning sufficiently many tasks from the environment. In this paper two models of bias learning (or equivalently, learning to learn) are introduced and the main theoretical results presented. The first model is a PAC-type model based on empirical process theory, while the second is a hierarchical Bayes model.

A large fraction of the electronic health records (EHRs) consists of clinical measurements collected over time, such as lab tests and vital signs, which provide important information about a patient's health status. These sequences of clinical measurements are naturally represented as time series, characterized by multiple variables and large amounts of missing data, which complicate the analysis. In this work, we propose a novel kernel which is capable of exploiting both the information from the observed values as well the information hidden in the missing patterns in multivariate time series (MTS) originating e.g. from EHRs. The kernel, called TCK$_{IM}$, is designed using an ensemble learning strategy in which the base models are novel mixed mode Bayesian mixture models which can effectively exploit informative missingness without having to resort to imputation methods. Moreover, the ensemble approach ensures robustness to hyperparameters and therefore TCK$_{IM}$ is particularly well suited if there is a lack of labels - a known challenge in medical applications. Experiments on three real-world clinical datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed kernel.

The aim of this study was to approach a difficult regression task on highly unbalanced data regarding active theater of war in Afghanistan. Our focus was set on predicting the negative events number without distinguishing precise nature of the events given historical data on investment and negative events per each of predefined 400 Afghanistan districts. In contrast with previous research on the matter, we propose an approach to analysis of time series data that benefits from non-conventional aggregation of these territorial entities. By carrying out initial exploratory data analysis we demonstrate that dividing data according to our proposal allows to identify strong trend and seasonal components in the selected target variable. Utilizing this approach we also tried to estimate which data regarding investments is most important for prediction performance. Based on our exploratory analysis and previous research we prepared 5 sets of independent variables that were fed to 3 machine learning regression models. The results expressed by mean absolute and mean square errors indicate that leveraging historical data regarding target variable allows for reasonable performance, however unfortunately other proposed independent variables does not seem to improve prediction quality.

Weak supervision is a popular method for building machine learning models without relying on ground truth annotations. Instead, it generates probabilistic training labels by estimating the accuracies of multiple noisy labeling sources (e.g., heuristics, crowd workers). Existing approaches use latent variable estimation to model the noisy sources, but these methods can be computationally expensive, scaling superlinearly in the data. In this work, we show that, for a class of latent variable models highly applicable to weak supervision, we can find a closed-form solution to model parameters, obviating the need for iterative solutions like stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We use this insight to build FlyingSquid, a weak supervision framework that runs orders of magnitude faster than previous weak supervision approaches and requires fewer assumptions. In particular, we prove bounds on generalization error without assuming that the latent variable model can exactly parameterize the underlying data distribution. Empirically, we validate FlyingSquid on benchmark weak supervision datasets and find that it achieves the same or higher quality compared to previous approaches without the need to tune an SGD procedure, recovers model parameters 170 times faster on average, and enables new video analysis and online learning applications.

One-shot neural architecture search allows joint learning of weights and network architecture, reducing computational cost. We limit our search space to the depth of residual networks and formulate an analytically tractable variational objective that allows for obtaining an unbiased approximate posterior over depths in one-shot. We propose a heuristic to prune our networks based on this distribution. We compare our proposed method against manual search over network depths on the MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, SVHN datasets. We find that pruned networks do not incur a loss in predictive performance, obtaining accuracies competitive with unpruned networks. Marginalising over depth allows us to obtain better-calibrated test-time uncertainty estimates than regular networks, in a single forward pass.

We study the estimation of risk-sensitive policies in reinforcement learning problems defined by a Markov Decision Process (MDPs) whose state and action spaces are countably finite. Prior efforts are predominately afflicted by computational challenges associated with the fact that risk-sensitive MDPs are time-inconsistent. To ameliorate this issue, we propose a new definition of risk, which we call caution, as a penalty function added to the dual objective of the linear programming (LP) formulation of reinforcement learning. The caution measures the distributional risk of a policy, which is a function of the policy's long-term state occupancy distribution. To solve this problem in an online model-free manner, we propose a stochastic variant of primal-dual method that uses Kullback-Lieber (KL) divergence as its proximal term. We establish that the number of iterations/samples required to attain approximately optimal solutions of this scheme matches tight dependencies on the cardinality of the state and action spaces, but differs in its dependence on the infinity norm of the gradient of the risk measure. Experiments demonstrate the merits of this approach for improving the reliability of reward accumulation without additional computational burdens.

We propose automated augmented conjugate inference, a new inference method for non-conjugate Gaussian processes (GP) models. Our method automatically constructs an auxiliary variable augmentation that renders the GP model conditionally conjugate. Building on the conjugate structure of the augmented model, we develop two inference methods. First, a fast and scalable stochastic variational inference method that uses efficient block coordinate ascent updates, which are computed in closed form. Second, an asymptotically correct Gibbs sampler that is useful for small datasets. Our experiments show that our method are up two orders of magnitude faster and more robust than existing state-of-the-art black-box methods.

Normalizing flows (NF) are a powerful framework for approximating posteriors. By mapping a simple base density through invertible transformations, flows provide an exact method of density evaluation and sampling. The trend in normalizing flow literature has been to devise deeper, more complex transformations to achieve greater flexibility. We propose an alternative: Gradient Boosted Flows (GBF) model a variational posterior by successively adding new NF components by gradient boosting so that each new NF component is fit to the residuals of the previously trained components. The GBF formulation results in a variational posterior that is a mixture model, whose flexibility increases as more components are added. Moreover, GBFs offer a wider, not deeper, approach that can be incorporated to improve the results of many existing NFs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique for density estimation and, by coupling GBF with a variational autoencoder, generative modeling of images.

The profile of a sample is the multiset of its symbol frequencies. We show that for samples of discrete distributions, profile entropy is a fundamental measure unifying the concepts of estimation, inference, and compression. Specifically, profile entropy a) determines the speed of estimating the distribution relative to the best natural estimator; b) characterizes the rate of inferring all symmetric properties compared with the best estimator over any label-invariant distribution collection; c) serves as the limit of profile compression, for which we derive optimal near-linear-time block and sequential algorithms. To further our understanding of profile entropy, we investigate its attributes, provide algorithms for approximating its value, and determine its magnitude for numerous structural distribution families.

Bayesian learning rule is a recently proposed variational inference method, which not only contains many existing learning algorithms as special cases but also enables the design of new algorithms. Unfortunately, when posterior parameters lie in an open constraint set, the rule may not satisfy the constraints and requires line-searches which could slow down the algorithm. In this paper, we fix this issue for the positive-definite constraint by proposing an improved rule that naturally handles the constraint. Our modification is obtained using Riemannian gradient methods, and is valid when the approximation attains a \emph{block-coordinate natural parameterization} (e.g., Gaussian distributions and their mixtures). Our method outperforms existing methods without any significant increase in computation. Our work makes it easier to apply the learning rule in the presence of positive-definite constraints in parameter spaces.