Weighted model integration (WMI) is a very appealing framework for probabilistic inference: it allows to express the complex dependencies of real-world problems where variables are both continuous and discrete, via the language of Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT), as well as to compute probabilistic queries with complex logical and arithmetic constraints. Yet, existing WMI solvers are not ready to scale to these problems. They either ignore the intrinsic dependency structure of the problem at all, or they are limited to too restrictive structures. To narrow this gap, we derive a factorized formalism of WMI enabling us to devise a scalable WMI solver based on message passing, MP-WMI. Namely, MP-WMI is the first WMI solver which allows to: 1) perform exact inference on the full class of tree-structured WMI problems; 2) compute all marginal densities in linear time; 3) amortize inference inter query. Experimental results show that our solver dramatically outperforms the existing WMI solvers on a large set of benchmarks.

The central tenet of reinforcement learning (RL) is that agents seek to maximize the sum of cumulative rewards. In contrast, active inference, an emerging framework within cognitive and computational neuroscience, proposes that agents act to maximize the evidence for a biased generative model. Here, we illustrate how ideas from active inference can augment traditional RL approaches by (i) furnishing an inherent balance of exploration and exploitation, and (ii) providing a more flexible conceptualization of reward. Inspired by active inference, we develop and implement a novel objective for decision making, which we term the free energy of the expected future. We demonstrate that the resulting algorithm successfully balances exploration and exploitation, simultaneously achieving robust performance on several challenging RL benchmarks with sparse, well-shaped, and no rewards.

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems, especially for high-risk applications. While much progress has recently been made in this area, most research has focused on un-structured prediction, such as image classification and regression tasks. However, while task-specific forms of confidence score estimation have been investigated by the speech and machine translation communities, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for structured prediction. Thus, this work aims to investigate uncertainty estimation for structured prediction tasks within a single unified and interpretable probabilistic ensemble-based framework. We consider uncertainty estimation for sequence data at the token-level and complete sequence-level, provide interpretations for, and applications of, various measures of uncertainty and discuss the challenges associated with obtaining them. This work also explores the practical challenges associated with obtaining uncertainty estimates for structured predictions tasks and provides baselines for token-level error detection, sequence-level prediction rejection, and sequence-level out-of-domain input detection using ensembles of auto-regressive transformer models trained on the WMT'14 English-French and WMT'17 English-German translation and LibriSpeech speech recognition datasets.

It is aimed at advanced undergraduates or first-year Ph.D. students, as well as researchers and practitioners. No previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning concepts is assumed. Familiarity with multivariate calculus and basic linear algebra is required, and some experience in the use of probabilities would be helpful though not essential as the book includes a self-contained introduction to basic probability theory. The book is suitable for courses on machine learning, statistics, computer science, signal processing, computer vision, data mining, and bioinformatics. Extensive support is provided for course instructors, including more than 400 exercises, graded according to difficulty. Example solutions for a subset of the exercises are available from the book website, while solutions for the remainder can be obtained by instructors from the publisher. The dramatic growth in practical applications for machine learning over the last ten years has been accompanied by many important developments in the underlying algorithms and techniques. For example, Bayesian methods have grown from a specialist niche to become mainstream, while graphical models have emerged as a general framework for describing and applying probabilistic techniques. The practical applicability of Bayesian methods has been greatly enhanced by the development of a range of approximate inference algorithms such as variational Bayes and expectation propagation, while new models based on kernels have had a significant impact on both algorithms and applications.

Fuzzy c-means based clustering algorithms are frequently used for Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy classifier antecedent parameter estimation. One rule is initialized from each cluster. However, most of these clustering algorithms are unsupervised, which waste valuable label information in the training data. This paper proposes a supervised enhanced soft subspace clustering (SESSC) algorithm, which considers simultaneously the within-cluster compactness, between-cluster separation, and label information in clustering. It can effectively deal with high-dimensional data, be used as a classifier alone, or be integrated into a TSK fuzzy classifier to further improve its performance. Experiments on nine UCI datasets from various application domains demonstrated that SESSC based initialization outperformed other clustering approaches, especially when the number of rules is small.

A Machine can only learn if it is biased in some way. Typically the bias is supplied by hand, for example through the choice of an appropriate set of features. However, if the learning machine is embedded within an {\em environment} of related tasks, then it can {\em learn} its own bias by learning sufficiently many tasks from the environment. In this paper two models of bias learning (or equivalently, learning to learn) are introduced and the main theoretical results presented. The first model is a PAC-type model based on empirical process theory, while the second is a hierarchical Bayes model.

A large fraction of the electronic health records (EHRs) consists of clinical measurements collected over time, such as lab tests and vital signs, which provide important information about a patient's health status. These sequences of clinical measurements are naturally represented as time series, characterized by multiple variables and large amounts of missing data, which complicate the analysis. In this work, we propose a novel kernel which is capable of exploiting both the information from the observed values as well the information hidden in the missing patterns in multivariate time series (MTS) originating e.g. from EHRs. The kernel, called TCK$_{IM}$, is designed using an ensemble learning strategy in which the base models are novel mixed mode Bayesian mixture models which can effectively exploit informative missingness without having to resort to imputation methods. Moreover, the ensemble approach ensures robustness to hyperparameters and therefore TCK$_{IM}$ is particularly well suited if there is a lack of labels - a known challenge in medical applications. Experiments on three real-world clinical datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed kernel.

The aim of this study was to approach a difficult regression task on highly unbalanced data regarding active theater of war in Afghanistan. Our focus was set on predicting the negative events number without distinguishing precise nature of the events given historical data on investment and negative events per each of predefined 400 Afghanistan districts. In contrast with previous research on the matter, we propose an approach to analysis of time series data that benefits from non-conventional aggregation of these territorial entities. By carrying out initial exploratory data analysis we demonstrate that dividing data according to our proposal allows to identify strong trend and seasonal components in the selected target variable. Utilizing this approach we also tried to estimate which data regarding investments is most important for prediction performance. Based on our exploratory analysis and previous research we prepared 5 sets of independent variables that were fed to 3 machine learning regression models. The results expressed by mean absolute and mean square errors indicate that leveraging historical data regarding target variable allows for reasonable performance, however unfortunately other proposed independent variables does not seem to improve prediction quality.

Weak supervision is a popular method for building machine learning models without relying on ground truth annotations. Instead, it generates probabilistic training labels by estimating the accuracies of multiple noisy labeling sources (e.g., heuristics, crowd workers). Existing approaches use latent variable estimation to model the noisy sources, but these methods can be computationally expensive, scaling superlinearly in the data. In this work, we show that, for a class of latent variable models highly applicable to weak supervision, we can find a closed-form solution to model parameters, obviating the need for iterative solutions like stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We use this insight to build FlyingSquid, a weak supervision framework that runs orders of magnitude faster than previous weak supervision approaches and requires fewer assumptions. In particular, we prove bounds on generalization error without assuming that the latent variable model can exactly parameterize the underlying data distribution. Empirically, we validate FlyingSquid on benchmark weak supervision datasets and find that it achieves the same or higher quality compared to previous approaches without the need to tune an SGD procedure, recovers model parameters 170 times faster on average, and enables new video analysis and online learning applications.

One-shot neural architecture search allows joint learning of weights and network architecture, reducing computational cost. We limit our search space to the depth of residual networks and formulate an analytically tractable variational objective that allows for obtaining an unbiased approximate posterior over depths in one-shot. We propose a heuristic to prune our networks based on this distribution. We compare our proposed method against manual search over network depths on the MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, SVHN datasets. We find that pruned networks do not incur a loss in predictive performance, obtaining accuracies competitive with unpruned networks. Marginalising over depth allows us to obtain better-calibrated test-time uncertainty estimates than regular networks, in a single forward pass.