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 Uncertainty


Adaptive binarization based on fuzzy integrals

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adaptive binarization methodologies threshold the intensity of the pixels with respect to adjacent pixels exploiting the integral images. In turn, the integral images are generally computed optimally using the summed-area-table algorithm (SAT). This document presents a new adaptive binarization technique based on fuzzy integral images through an efficient design of a modified SAT for fuzzy integrals. We define this new methodology as FLAT (Fuzzy Local Adaptive Thresholding). The experimental results show that the proposed methodology have produced an image quality thresholding often better than traditional algorithms and saliency neural networks. We propose a new generalization of the Sugeno and CF 1,2 integrals to improve existing results with an efficient integral image computation. Therefore, these new generalized fuzzy integrals can be used as a tool for grayscale processing in real-time and deep-learning applications. Index Terms: Image Thresholding, Image Processing, Fuzzy Integrals, Aggregation Functions


Optimally adaptive Bayesian spectral density estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper studies spectral density estimates obtained assuming a \emph{Gaussian process} prior, with various stationary and non-stationary covariance structures, modelling the log of the unknown power spectrum. We unify previously disparate techniques from machine learning and statistics, applying various covariance functions to spectral density estimation, and investigate their performance and properties. We show that all covariance functions perform comparatively well, with the smoothing spline model in the existing AdaptSPEC technique performing slightly worse. Subsequently, we propose an improvement on AdaptSPEC based on an optimisation of the number of eigenvectors used. We show this improves on every existing method in the case of stationary time series, and describe an application to non-stationary time series. We introduce new measures of accuracy for the spectral density estimate, inspired from the physical sciences. Finally, we validate our models in an extensive simulation study and with real data, analysing autoregressive processes with known spectra, and sunspot and airline passenger data respectively.


Bayesian System ID: Optimal management of parameter, model, and measurement uncertainty

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We evaluate the robustness of a probabilistic formulation of system identification (ID) to sparse, noisy, and indirect data. Specifically, we compare estimators of future system behavior derived from the Bayesian posterior of a learning problem to several commonly used least squares-based optimization objectives used in system ID. Our comparisons indicate that the log posterior has improved geometric properties compared with the objective function surfaces of traditional methods that include differentially constrained least squares and least squares reconstructions of discrete time steppers like dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). These properties allow it to be both more sensitive to new data and less affected by multiple minima --- overall yielding a more robust approach. Our theoretical results indicate that least squares and regularized least squares methods like dynamic mode decomposition and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) can be derived from the probabilistic formulation by assuming noiseless measurements. We also analyze the computational complexity of a Gaussian filter-based approximate marginal Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme that we use to obtain the Bayesian posterior for both linear and nonlinear problems. We then empirically demonstrate that obtaining the marginal posterior of the parameter dynamics and making predictions by extracting optimal estimators (e.g., mean, median, mode) yields orders of magnitude improvement over the aforementioned approaches. We attribute this performance to the fact that the Bayesian approach captures parameter, model, and measurement uncertainties, whereas the other methods typically neglect at least one type of uncertainty.


Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD): analysis framework and applications to stochastic mechanical systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Since the early 1900s, numerous research efforts have been devoted to developing quantitative solutions to stochastic mechanical systems. In general, the problem is perceived as solved when a complete or partial probabilistic description on the quantity of interest (QoI) is determined. However, in the presence of complex system behavior, there is a critical need to go beyond mere probabilistic descriptions. In fact, to gain a full understanding of the system, it is crucial to extract physical characterizations from the probabilistic structure of the QoI, especially when the QoI solution is obtained in a data-driven fashion. Motivated by this perspective, the paper proposes a framework to obtain structuralized characterizations on behaviors of stochastic systems. The framework is named Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD). PPPD analysis aims to decompose complex response behaviors, conditional to a prescribed performance state, into meaningful patterns in the space of system responses, and to investigate how the patterns are triggered in the space of basic random variables. To illustrate the application of PPPD, the paper studies three numerical examples: 1) an illustrative example with hypothetical stochastic processes input and output; 2) a stochastic Lorenz system with periodic as well as chaotic behaviors; and 3) a simplified shear-building model subjected to a stochastic ground motion excitation.


Gaussianization Flows

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Iterative Gaussianization is a fixed-point iteration procedure that can transform any continuous random vector into a Gaussian one. Based on iterative Gaussianization, we propose a new type of normalizing flow model that enables both efficient computation of likelihoods and efficient inversion for sample generation. We demonstrate that these models, named Gaussianization flows, are universal approximators for continuous probability distributions under some regularity conditions. Because of this guaranteed expressivity, they can capture multimodal target distributions without compromising the efficiency of sample generation. Experimentally, we show that Gaussianization flows achieve better or comparable performance on several tabular datasets compared to other efficiently invertible flow models such as Real NVP, Glow and FFJORD. In particular, Gaussianization flows are easier to initialize, demonstrate better robustness with respect to different transformations of the training data, and generalize better on small training sets.


Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we provide a comprehensive introduction to knowledge graphs, which have recently garnered significant attention from both industry and academia in scenarios that require exploiting diverse, dynamic, large-scale collections of data. After a general introduction, we motivate and contrast various graph-based data models and query languages that are used for knowledge graphs. We discuss the roles of schema, identity, and context in knowledge graphs. We explain how knowledge can be represented and extracted using a combination of deductive and inductive techniques. We summarise methods for the creation, enrichment, quality assessment, refinement, and publication of knowledge graphs. We provide an overview of prominent open knowledge graphs and enterprise knowledge graphs, their applications, and how they use the aforementioned techniques. We conclude with high-level future research directions for knowledge graphs.


MBGD-RDA Training and Rule Pruning for Concise TSK Fuzzy Regression Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

To effectively train Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy systems for regression problems, a Mini-Batch Gradient Descent with Regularization, DropRule, and AdaBound (MBGD-RDA) algorithm was recently proposed. It has demonstrated superior performances; however, there are also some limitations, e.g., it does not allow the user to specify the number of rules directly, and only Gaussian MFs can be used. This paper proposes two variants of MBGD-RDA to remedy these limitations, and show that they outperform the original MBGD-RDA and the classical ANFIS algorithms with the same number of rules. Furthermore, we also propose a rule pruning algorithm for TSK fuzzy systems, which can reduce the number of rules without significantly sacrificing the regression performance. Experiments showed that the rules obtained from pruning are generally better than training them from scratch directly, especially when Gaussian MFs are used.


Novel Meta-Heuristic Model for Discrimination between Iron Deficiency Anemia and B-Thalassemia with CBC Indices Based on Dynamic Harmony Search

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent decades, attention has been directed at anemia classification for various medical purposes, such as thalassemia screening and predicting iron deficiency anemia (IDA). In this study, a new method has been successfully tested for discrimination between IDA and \b{eta}-thalassemia trait (\b{eta}-TT). The method is based on a Dynamic Harmony Search (DHS). Complete blood count (CBC), a fast and inexpensive laboratory test, is used as the input of the system. Other models, such as a genetic programming method called structured representation on genetic algorithm in non-linear function fitting (STROGANOFF), an artificial neural network (ANN), an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), a support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and certain traditional methods, are compared with the proposed method.


Meta Cyclical Annealing Schedule: A Simple Approach to Avoiding Meta-Amortization Error

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The ability to learn new concepts with small amounts of data is a crucial aspect of intelligence that has proven challenging for deep learning methods. Meta-learning for few-shot learning offers a potential solution to this problem: by learning to learn across data from many previous tasks, few-shot learning algorithms can discover the structure among tasks to enable fast learning of new tasks. However, a critical challenge in few-shot learning is task ambiguity: even when a powerful prior can be meta-learned from a large number of prior tasks, a small dataset for a new task can simply be very ambiguous to acquire a single model for that task. The Bayesian meta-learning models can naturally resolve this problem by putting a sophisticated prior distribution and let the posterior well regularized through Bayesian decision theory. However, currently known Bayesian meta-learning procedures such as VERSA suffer from the so-called {\it information preference problem}, that is, the posterior distribution is degenerated to one point and is far from the exact one. To address this challenge, we design a novel meta-regularization objective using {\it cyclical annealing schedule} and {\it maximum mean discrepancy} (MMD) criterion. The cyclical annealing schedule is quite effective at avoiding such degenerate solutions. This procedure includes a difficult KL-divergence estimation, but we resolve the issue by employing MMD instead of KL-divergence. The experimental results show that our approach substantially outperforms standard meta-learning algorithms.


Uncertainty Quantification for Deep Context-Aware Mobile Activity Recognition and Unknown Context Discovery

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Activity recognition in wearable computing faces two key challenges: i) activity characteristics may be context-dependent and change under different contexts or situations; ii) unknown contexts and activities may occur from time to time, requiring flexibility and adaptability of the algorithm. We develop a context-aware mixture of deep models termed the {\alpha}-\b{eta} network coupled with uncertainty quantification (UQ) based upon maximum entropy to enhance human activity recognition performance. We improve accuracy and F score by 10% by identifying high-level contexts in a data-driven way to guide model development. In order to ensure training stability, we have used a clustering-based pre-training in both public and in-house datasets, demonstrating improved accuracy through unknown context discovery.