We introduce a new and rigorously-formulated PAC-Bayes few-shot meta-learning algorithm that implicitly learns a prior distribution of the model of interest. Our proposed method extends the PAC-Bayes framework from a single task setting to the few-shot learning setting to upper-bound generalisation errors on unseen tasks and samples. We also propose a generative-based approach to model the shared prior and the posterior of task-specific model parameters more expressively compared to the usual diagonal Gaussian assumption. We show that the models trained with our proposed meta-learning algorithm are well calibrated and accurate, with state-of-the-art calibration and classification results on few-shot classification (mini-ImageNet and tiered-ImageNet) and regression (multi-modal task-distribution regression) benchmarks.

Recently latent factor model (LFM) has been drawing much attention in recommender systems due to its good performance and scalability. However, existing LFMs predict missing values in a user-item rating matrix only based on the known ones, and thus the sparsity of the rating matrix always limits their performance. Meanwhile, semi-supervised learning (SSL) provides an effective way to alleviate the label (i.e., rating) sparsity problem by performing label propagation, which is mainly based on the smoothness insight on affinity graphs. However, graph-based SSL suffers serious scalability and graph unreliable problems when directly being applied to do recommendation. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic chain graph model (CGM) to marry SSL with LFM. The proposed CGM is a combination of Bayesian network and Markov random field. The Bayesian network is used to model the rating generation and regression procedures, and the Markov random field is used to model the confidence-aware smoothness constraint between the generated ratings. Experimental results show that our proposed CGM significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches in terms of four evaluation metrics, and with a larger performance margin when data sparsity increases.

Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) is a useful tool for efficiently learning probabilistic models in machine learning. Generally approximate posteriors learned by ADVI are forced to be unimodal in order to facilitate use of the reparameterization trick. In this paper, we show how stratified sampling may be used to enable mixture distributions as the approximate posterior, and derive a new lower bound on the evidence analogous to the importance weighted autoencoder (IWAE). We show that this "SIWAE" is a tighter bound than both IWAE and the traditional ELBO, both of which are special instances of this bound. We verify empirically that the traditional ELBO objective disfavors the presence of multimodal posterior distributions and may therefore not be able to fully capture structure in the latent space. Our experiments show that using the SIWAE objective allows the encoder to learn more complex distributions which regularly contain multimodality, resulting in higher accuracy and better calibration in the presence of incomplete, limited, or corrupted data.

Various AI models are increasingly being considered as part of clinical decision-support tools. However, the trustworthiness of such models is rarely considered. Clinicians are more likely to use a model if they can understand and trust its predictions. Key to this is if its underlying reasoning can be explained. A Bayesian network (BN) model has the advantage that it is not a black-box and its reasoning can be explained. In this paper, we propose an incremental explanation of inference that can be applied to'hybrid' BNs, i.e. those that contain both discrete and continuous nodes. The key questions that we answer are: (1) which important evidence supports or contradicts the prediction, and (2) through which intermediate variables does the information flow. The explanation is illustrated using a real clinical case study. A small evaluation study is also conducted.

The data model of standard sparse coding assumes a weighted linear summation of latents to determine the mean of Gaussian observation noise. However, such a linear summation of latents is often at odds with non-Gaussian observables (e.g., means of the Bernoulli distribution have to lie in the unit interval), and also in the Gaussian case it can be difficult to justify for many types of data. Alternative superposition models (i.e., links between latents and observables) have therefore been investigated repeatedly. Here we show that using the maximum instead of a linear sum to link latents to observables allows for the derivation of very general and concise parameter update equations. Concretely, we derive a set of update equations that has the same functional form for all distributions of the exponential family (given that derivatives w.r.t. their parameters can be taken). Our results consequently allow for the development of latent variable models for commonly as well as for unusually distributed data. We numerically verify our analytical result assuming standard Gaussian, Gamma, Poisson, Bernoulli and Exponential distributions and point to some potential applications.

Adaptive binarization methodologies threshold the intensity of the pixels with respect to adjacent pixels exploiting the integral images. In turn, the integral images are generally computed optimally using the summed-area-table algorithm (SAT). This document presents a new adaptive binarization technique based on fuzzy integral images through an efficient design of a modified SAT for fuzzy integrals. We define this new methodology as FLAT (Fuzzy Local Adaptive Thresholding). The experimental results show that the proposed methodology have produced an image quality thresholding often better than traditional algorithms and saliency neural networks. We propose a new generalization of the Sugeno and CF 1,2 integrals to improve existing results with an efficient integral image computation. Therefore, these new generalized fuzzy integrals can be used as a tool for grayscale processing in real-time and deep-learning applications. Index Terms: Image Thresholding, Image Processing, Fuzzy Integrals, Aggregation Functions

This paper studies spectral density estimates obtained assuming a \emph{Gaussian process} prior, with various stationary and non-stationary covariance structures, modelling the log of the unknown power spectrum. We unify previously disparate techniques from machine learning and statistics, applying various covariance functions to spectral density estimation, and investigate their performance and properties. We show that all covariance functions perform comparatively well, with the smoothing spline model in the existing AdaptSPEC technique performing slightly worse. Subsequently, we propose an improvement on AdaptSPEC based on an optimisation of the number of eigenvectors used. We show this improves on every existing method in the case of stationary time series, and describe an application to non-stationary time series. We introduce new measures of accuracy for the spectral density estimate, inspired from the physical sciences. Finally, we validate our models in an extensive simulation study and with real data, analysing autoregressive processes with known spectra, and sunspot and airline passenger data respectively.

We evaluate the robustness of a probabilistic formulation of system identification (ID) to sparse, noisy, and indirect data. Specifically, we compare estimators of future system behavior derived from the Bayesian posterior of a learning problem to several commonly used least squares-based optimization objectives used in system ID. Our comparisons indicate that the log posterior has improved geometric properties compared with the objective function surfaces of traditional methods that include differentially constrained least squares and least squares reconstructions of discrete time steppers like dynamic mode decomposition (DMD). These properties allow it to be both more sensitive to new data and less affected by multiple minima --- overall yielding a more robust approach. Our theoretical results indicate that least squares and regularized least squares methods like dynamic mode decomposition and sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) can be derived from the probabilistic formulation by assuming noiseless measurements. We also analyze the computational complexity of a Gaussian filter-based approximate marginal Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme that we use to obtain the Bayesian posterior for both linear and nonlinear problems. We then empirically demonstrate that obtaining the marginal posterior of the parameter dynamics and making predictions by extracting optimal estimators (e.g., mean, median, mode) yields orders of magnitude improvement over the aforementioned approaches. We attribute this performance to the fact that the Bayesian approach captures parameter, model, and measurement uncertainties, whereas the other methods typically neglect at least one type of uncertainty.

Since the early 1900s, numerous research efforts have been devoted to developing quantitative solutions to stochastic mechanical systems. In general, the problem is perceived as solved when a complete or partial probabilistic description on the quantity of interest (QoI) is determined. However, in the presence of complex system behavior, there is a critical need to go beyond mere probabilistic descriptions. In fact, to gain a full understanding of the system, it is crucial to extract physical characterizations from the probabilistic structure of the QoI, especially when the QoI solution is obtained in a data-driven fashion. Motivated by this perspective, the paper proposes a framework to obtain structuralized characterizations on behaviors of stochastic systems. The framework is named Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD). PPPD analysis aims to decompose complex response behaviors, conditional to a prescribed performance state, into meaningful patterns in the space of system responses, and to investigate how the patterns are triggered in the space of basic random variables. To illustrate the application of PPPD, the paper studies three numerical examples: 1) an illustrative example with hypothetical stochastic processes input and output; 2) a stochastic Lorenz system with periodic as well as chaotic behaviors; and 3) a simplified shear-building model subjected to a stochastic ground motion excitation.

Iterative Gaussianization is a fixed-point iteration procedure that can transform any continuous random vector into a Gaussian one. Based on iterative Gaussianization, we propose a new type of normalizing flow model that enables both efficient computation of likelihoods and efficient inversion for sample generation. We demonstrate that these models, named Gaussianization flows, are universal approximators for continuous probability distributions under some regularity conditions. Because of this guaranteed expressivity, they can capture multimodal target distributions without compromising the efficiency of sample generation. Experimentally, we show that Gaussianization flows achieve better or comparable performance on several tabular datasets compared to other efficiently invertible flow models such as Real NVP, Glow and FFJORD. In particular, Gaussianization flows are easier to initialize, demonstrate better robustness with respect to different transformations of the training data, and generalize better on small training sets.