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 Uncertainty


Conditional Independence Testing using Generative Adversarial Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting conditional dependence, with a focus on high-dimensional feature spaces. Our contribution is a new test statistic based on samples from a generative adversarial network designed to approximate directly a conditional distribution that encodes the null hypothesis, in a manner that maximizes power (the rate of true negatives). We show that such an approach requires only that density approximation be viable in order to ensure that we control type I error (the rate of false positives); in particular, no assumptions need to be made on the form of the distributions or feature dependencies. Using synthetic simulations with high-dimensional data we demonstrate significant gains in power over competing methods. In addition, we illustrate the use of our test to discover causal markers of disease in genetic data.


D-VAE: A Variational Autoencoder for Directed Acyclic Graphs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Graph structured data are abundant in the real world. Among different graph types, directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are of particular interest to machine learning researchers, as many machine learning models are realized as computations on DAGs, including neural networks and Bayesian networks. In this paper, we study deep generative models for DAGs, and propose a novel DAG variational autoencoder (D-VAE). We propose an asynchronous message passing scheme that allows encoding the computations on DAGs, rather than using existing simultaneous message passing schemes to encode local graph structures. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed DVAE through two tasks: neural architecture search and Bayesian network structure learning.


FreeAnchor: Learning to Match Anchors for Visual Object Detection

Neural Information Processing Systems

Modern CNN-based object detectors assign anchors for ground-truth objects under the restriction of object-anchor Intersection-over-Unit (IoU). In this study, we propose a learning-to-match approach to break IoU restriction, allowing objects to match anchors in a flexible manner. Our approach, referred to as FreeAnchor, updates hand-crafted anchor assignment to "free" anchor matching by formulating detector training as a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) procedure. FreeAnchor targets at learning features which best explain a class of objects in terms of both classification and localization. FreeAnchor is implemented by optimizing detection customized likelihood and can be fused with CNN-based detectors in a plug-and-play manner.


Anchor & Transform: Learning Sparse Representations of Discrete Objects

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning continuous representations of discrete objects such as text, users, and URLs lies at the heart of many applications including language and user modeling. When using discrete objects as input to neural networks, we often ignore the underlying structures (e.g. natural groupings and similarities) and embed the objects independently into individual vectors. As a result, existing methods do not scale to large vocabulary sizes. In this paper, we design a Bayesian nonparametric prior for embeddings that encourages sparsity and leverages natural groupings among objects. We derive an approximate inference algorithm based on Small Variance Asymptotics which yields a simple and natural algorithm for learning a small set of anchor embeddings and a sparse transformation matrix. We call our method Anchor & Transform (ANT) as the embeddings of discrete objects are a sparse linear combination of the anchors, weighted according to the transformation matrix. ANT is scalable, flexible, end-to-end trainable, and allows the user to incorporate domain knowledge about object relationships. On text classification and language modeling benchmarks, ANT demonstrates stronger performance with fewer parameters as compared to existing compression baselines.


Compressed Sensing with Invertible Generative Models and Dependent Noise

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study image inverse problems with invertible generative priors, specifically normalizing flow models. Our formulation views the solution as the Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image given the measurements. Our general formulation allows for non-linear differentiable forward operators and noise distributions with long-range dependencies. We establish theoretical recovery guarantees for denoising and compressed sensing under our framework. We also empirically validate our method on various inverse problems including compressed sensing with quantized measurements and denoising with dependent noise patterns.


Nearest Neighbor Dirichlet Process

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is a rich literature on Bayesian nonparametric methods for unknown densities. The most popular approach relies on Dirichlet process mixture models. These models characterize the unknown density as a kernel convolution with an unknown almost surely discrete mixing measure, which is given a Dirichlet process prior. Such models are very flexible and have good performance in many settings, but posterior computation relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms that can be complex and inefficient. As a simple and general alternative, we propose a class of nearest neighbor-Dirichlet processes. The approach starts by grouping the data into neighborhoods based on standard algorithms. Within each neighborhood, the density is characterized via a Bayesian parametric model, such as a Gaussian with unknown parameters. Assigning a Dirichlet prior to the weights on these local kernels, we obtain a simple pseudo-posterior for the weights and kernel parameters. A simple and embarrassingly parallel Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed to sample from the resulting pseudo-posterior for the unknown density. Desirable asymptotic properties are shown, and the methods are evaluated in simulation studies and applied to a motivating dataset in the context of classification.


A Unified View of Label Shift Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Label shift describes the setting where although the label distribution might change between the source and target domains, the class-conditional probabilities (of data given a label) do not. There are two dominant approaches for estimating the label marginal. BBSE, a moment-matching approach based on confusion matrices, is provably consistent and provides interpretable error bounds. However, a maximum likelihood estimation approach, which we call MLLS, dominates empirically. In this paper, we present a unified view of the two methods and the first theoretical characterization of the likelihood-based estimator. Our contributions include (i) conditions for consistency of MLLS, which include calibration of the classifier and a confusion matrix invertibility condition that BBSE also requires; (ii) a unified view of the methods, casting the confusion matrix as roughly equivalent to MLLS for a particular choice of calibration method; and (iii) a decomposition of MLLS's finite-sample error into terms reflecting the impacts of miscalibration and estimation error. Our analysis attributes BBSE's statistical inefficiency to a loss of information due to coarse calibration. We support our findings with experiments on both synthetic data and the MNIST and CIFAR10 image recognition datasets.


Energy-Based Processes for Exchangeable Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many machine learning problems consider data where each instance is, itself, an unordered set of elements; i.e., such that each observation is a set. Data of this kind arises in a variety of applications, ranging from document modeling (Blei et al., 2003; Garnelo et al., 2018a) and multi-task learning (Zaheer et al., 2017; Edwards & Storkey, 2016; Liu et al., 2019) to 3D point cloud modeling (Li et al., 2018; Yang et al., 2019). In unsupervised settings, a dataset typically consists of a set of such sets, while in supervised learning, it consists of a set of (set, label) pairs. Modeling a distribution over a space of instances, where each instance is, itself, an unordered set of elements involves two key considerations: (1) the elements within a single instance are exchangeable, i.e., the elements are order invariant; and (2) the cardinalities of the instances (sets) vary, i.e., instances need not exhibit the same cardinality. Modeling both unconditional and conditional distributions over instances (sets) are relevant to consider, since these support unsupervised and supervised tasks respectively. For unconditional distribution modeling, there has been significant prior work on modeling set distributions, which has sought to balance competing needs to expand model flexibility and preserve tractability on the one hand, with respecting exchangeability and varying instance cardinalities on the other hand. However, managing these tradeoffs has proved to be quite difficult, and current approaches remain limited in different respects. For example, a particularly straightforward strategy for modeling distributions over instances x {x 1,..., x n } without assuming fixed cardinality is simply to use a recurrent neural network (RNNs) to encode instance probability auto-regressively via p (x) n


Dynamic transformation of prior knowledge into Bayesian models for data streams

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider how to effectively use prior knowledge when learning a Bayesian model from streaming environments where the data come infinitely and sequentially. This problem is highly important in the era of data explosion and rich sources of precious external knowledge such as pre-trained models, ontologies, Wikipedia, etc. We show that some existing approaches can forget any knowledge very fast. We then propose a novel framework that enables to incorporate the prior knowledge of different forms into a base Bayesian model for data streams. Our framework subsumes some existing popular models for time-series/dynamic data. Extensive experiments show that our framework outperforms existing methods with a large margin. In particular, our framework can help Bayesian models generalize well on extremely short text while other methods overfit. The implementation of our framework is available at https://github.com/bachtranxuan/TPS.git.


Graph Convolutional Topic Model for Data Streams

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning hidden topics in data streams has been paid a great deal of attention by researchers with a lot of proposed methods, but exploiting prior knowledge in general and a knowledge graph in particular has not been taken into adequate consideration in these methods. Prior knowledge that is derived from human knowledge (e.g. Wordnet) or a pre-trained model (e.g.Word2vec) is very valuable and useful to help topic models work better, especially on short texts. However, previous work often ignores this resource, or it can only utilize prior knowledge of a vector form in a simple way. In this paper, we propose a novel graph convolutional topic model (GCTM) which integrates graph convolutional networks (GCN) into a topic model and a learning method which learns the networks and the topic model simultaneously for data streams. In each minibatch, our method not only can exploit an external knowledge graph but also can balance between the external and old knowledge to perform well on new data. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate our method with both human graph knowledge(Wordnet) and a graph built from pre-trained word embeddings (Word2vec). The experimental results show that our method achieves significantly better performances than the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of probabilistic predictive measure and topic coherence. In particular, our method can work well when dealing with short texts as well as concept drift. The implementation of GCTM is available at https://github.com/bachtranxuan/GCTM.git.