Uncertainty
Variance Reduced Policy Evaluation with Smooth Function Approximation
Wai, Hoi-To, Hong, Mingyi, Yang, Zhuoran, Wang, Zhaoran, Tang, Kexin
Policy evaluation with smooth and nonlinear function approximation has shown great potential for reinforcement learning. Compared to linear function approxi- mation, it allows for using a richer class of approximation functions such as the neural networks. Traditional algorithms are based on two timescales stochastic approximation whose convergence rate is often slow. This paper focuses on an offline setting where a trajectory of $m$ state-action pairs are observed. We formulate the policy evaluation problem as a non-convex primal-dual, finite-sum optimization problem, whose primal sub-problem is non-convex and dual sub-problem is strongly concave.
Efficient Probabilistic Inference in the Quest for Physics Beyond the Standard Model
Baydin, Atilim Gunes, Shao, Lei, Bhimji, Wahid, Heinrich, Lukas, Naderiparizi, Saeid, Munk, Andreas, Liu, Jialin, Gram-Hansen, Bradley, Louppe, Gilles, Meadows, Lawrence, Torr, Philip, Lee, Victor, Cranmer, Kyle, Prabhat, Mr., Wood, Frank
We present a novel probabilistic programming framework that couples directly to existing large-scale simulators through a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, which allows general-purpose inference engines to record and control random number draws within simulators in a language-agnostic way. The execution of existing simulators as probabilistic programs enables highly interpretable posterior inference in the structured model defined by the simulator code base. We demonstrate the technique in particle physics, on a scientifically accurate simulation of the tau lepton decay, which is a key ingredient in establishing the properties of the Higgs boson. Inference efficiency is achieved via inference compilation where a deep recurrent neural network is trained to parameterize proposal distributions and control the stochastic simulator in a sequential importance sampling scheme, at a fraction of the computational cost of a Markov chain Monte Carlo baseline. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.
Poisson-Minibatching for Gibbs Sampling with Convergence Rate Guarantees
Zhang, Ruqi, Sa, Christopher M. De
Gibbs sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method that is often used for learning and inference on graphical models. Minibatching, in which a small random subset of the graph is used at each iteration, can help make Gibbs sampling scale to large graphical models by reducing its computational cost. In this paper, we propose a new auxiliary-variable minibatched Gibbs sampling method, {\it Poisson-minibatching Gibbs}, which both produces unbiased samples and has a theoretical guarantee on its convergence rate. In comparison to previous minibatched Gibbs algorithms, Poisson-minibatching Gibbs supports fast sampling from continuous state spaces and avoids the need for a Metropolis-Hastings correction on discrete state spaces. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple applications and in comparison with both plain Gibbs and previous minibatched methods.
Scalable Structure Learning of Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks from Incomplete Data
Linzner, Dominik, Schmidt, Michael, Koeppl, Heinz
Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) represent a compact yet powerful framework for understanding multivariate time-series data. Given complete data, parameters and structure can be estimated efficiently in closed-form. However, if data is incomplete, the latent states of the CTBN have to be estimated by laboriously simulating the intractable dynamics of the assumed CTBN. This is a problem, especially for structure learning tasks, where this has to be done for each element of a super-exponentially growing set of possible structures. In order to circumvent this notorious bottleneck, we develop a novel gradient-based approach to structure learning.
Classification-by-Components: Probabilistic Modeling of Reasoning over a Set of Components
Saralajew, Sascha, Holdijk, Lars, Rees, Maike, Asan, Ebubekir, Villmann, Thomas
Neural networks are state-of-the-art classification approaches but are generally difficult to interpret. This issue can be partly alleviated by constructing a precise decision process within the neural network. In this work, a network architecture, denoted as Classification-By-Components network (CBC), is proposed. It is restricted to follow an intuitive reasoning based decision process inspired by Biederman's recognition-by-components theory from cognitive psychology. The network is trained to learn and detect generic components that characterize objects.
Conditional Independence Testing using Generative Adversarial Networks
Bellot, Alexis, Schaar, Mihaela van der
We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting conditional dependence, with a focus on high-dimensional feature spaces. Our contribution is a new test statistic based on samples from a generative adversarial network designed to approximate directly a conditional distribution that encodes the null hypothesis, in a manner that maximizes power (the rate of true negatives). We show that such an approach requires only that density approximation be viable in order to ensure that we control type I error (the rate of false positives); in particular, no assumptions need to be made on the form of the distributions or feature dependencies. Using synthetic simulations with high-dimensional data we demonstrate significant gains in power over competing methods. In addition, we illustrate the use of our test to discover causal markers of disease in genetic data.
D-VAE: A Variational Autoencoder for Directed Acyclic Graphs
Zhang, Muhan, Jiang, Shali, Cui, Zhicheng, Garnett, Roman, Chen, Yixin
Graph structured data are abundant in the real world. Among different graph types, directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are of particular interest to machine learning researchers, as many machine learning models are realized as computations on DAGs, including neural networks and Bayesian networks. In this paper, we study deep generative models for DAGs, and propose a novel DAG variational autoencoder (D-VAE). We propose an asynchronous message passing scheme that allows encoding the computations on DAGs, rather than using existing simultaneous message passing schemes to encode local graph structures. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed DVAE through two tasks: neural architecture search and Bayesian network structure learning.
FreeAnchor: Learning to Match Anchors for Visual Object Detection
Zhang, Xiaosong, Wan, Fang, Liu, Chang, Ji, Rongrong, Ye, Qixiang
Modern CNN-based object detectors assign anchors for ground-truth objects under the restriction of object-anchor Intersection-over-Unit (IoU). In this study, we propose a learning-to-match approach to break IoU restriction, allowing objects to match anchors in a flexible manner. Our approach, referred to as FreeAnchor, updates hand-crafted anchor assignment to "free" anchor matching by formulating detector training as a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) procedure. FreeAnchor targets at learning features which best explain a class of objects in terms of both classification and localization. FreeAnchor is implemented by optimizing detection customized likelihood and can be fused with CNN-based detectors in a plug-and-play manner.
Anchor & Transform: Learning Sparse Representations of Discrete Objects
Liang, Paul Pu, Zaheer, Manzil, Wang, Yuan, Ahmed, Amr
Learning continuous representations of discrete objects such as text, users, and URLs lies at the heart of many applications including language and user modeling. When using discrete objects as input to neural networks, we often ignore the underlying structures (e.g. natural groupings and similarities) and embed the objects independently into individual vectors. As a result, existing methods do not scale to large vocabulary sizes. In this paper, we design a Bayesian nonparametric prior for embeddings that encourages sparsity and leverages natural groupings among objects. We derive an approximate inference algorithm based on Small Variance Asymptotics which yields a simple and natural algorithm for learning a small set of anchor embeddings and a sparse transformation matrix. We call our method Anchor & Transform (ANT) as the embeddings of discrete objects are a sparse linear combination of the anchors, weighted according to the transformation matrix. ANT is scalable, flexible, end-to-end trainable, and allows the user to incorporate domain knowledge about object relationships. On text classification and language modeling benchmarks, ANT demonstrates stronger performance with fewer parameters as compared to existing compression baselines.
Compressed Sensing with Invertible Generative Models and Dependent Noise
Whang, Jay, Lei, Qi, Dimakis, Alexandros G.
We study image inverse problems with invertible generative priors, specifically normalizing flow models. Our formulation views the solution as the Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image given the measurements. Our general formulation allows for non-linear differentiable forward operators and noise distributions with long-range dependencies. We establish theoretical recovery guarantees for denoising and compressed sensing under our framework. We also empirically validate our method on various inverse problems including compressed sensing with quantized measurements and denoising with dependent noise patterns.