We consider the variable selection problem of generalized linear models (GLMs). Stability selection (SS) is a promising method proposed for solving this problem. Although SS provides practical variable selection criteria, it is computationally demanding because it needs to fit GLMs to many re-sampled datasets. We propose a novel approximate inference algorithm that can conduct SS without the repeated fitting. The algorithm is based on the replica method of statistical mechanics and vector approximate message passing of information theory. For datasets characterized by rotation-invariant matrix ensembles, we derive state evolution equations that macroscopically describe the dynamics of the proposed algorithm. We also show that their fixed points are consistent with the replica symmetric solution obtained by the replica method. Numerical experiments indicate that the algorithm exhibits fast convergence and high approximation accuracy for both synthetic and real-world data.

Redistribution systems iteratively redistribute mass between groups under the control of rules. PRAM is a framework for building redistribution systems. We discuss the relationships between redistribution systems, agent-based systems, compartmental models and Bayesian models. PRAM puts agent-based models on a sound probabilistic footing by reformulating them as redistribution systems. This provides a basis for integrating agent-based and probabilistic models. \pram/ extends the themes of probabilistic relational models and lifted inference to incorporate dynamical models and simulation. We illustrate PRAM with an epidemiological example.

Q-learning with function approximation is one of the most popular methods in reinforcement learning. Though the idea of using function approximation was proposed at least 60 years ago, even in the simplest setup, i.e, approximating Q-functions with linear functions, it is still an open problem how to design a provably efficient algorithm that learns a near-optimal policy. The key challenges are how to efficiently explore the state space and how to decide when to stop exploring in conjunction with the function approximation scheme. The current paper presents a provably efficient algorithm for Q-learning with linear function approximation. Under certain regularity assumptions, our algorithm, Difference Maximization Q-learning, combined with linear function approximation, returns a near-optimal policy using polynomial number of trajectories.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a particle-based inference algorithm that leverages gradient information for efficient approximate inference. In this work, we enhance SVGD by leveraging preconditioning matrices, such as the Hessian and Fisher information matrix, to incorporate geometric information into SVGD updates. We achieve this by presenting a generalization of SVGD that replaces the scalar-valued kernels in vanilla SVGD with more general matrix-valued kernels. This yields a significant extension of SVGD, and more importantly, allows us to flexibly incorporate various preconditioning matricesto accelerate the exploration in the probability landscape. Empirical results show that our method outperforms vanilla SVGD and a variety of baseline approaches over a range of real-world Bayesian inference tasks.

We consider the problem of computing the maximum likelihood multivariate log-concave distribution for a set of points. Specifically, we present an algorithm which, given $n$ points in $\mathbb{R} d$ and an accuracy parameter $\eps 0$, runs in time $\poly(n,d,1/\eps),$ and returns a log-concave distribution which, with high probability, has the property that the likelihood of the $n$ points under the returned distribution is at most an additive $\eps$ less than the maximum likelihood that could be achieved via any log-concave distribution. This is the first computationally efficient (polynomial time) algorithm for this fundamental and practically important task. Our algorithm rests on a novel connection with exponential families: the maximum likelihood log-concave distribution belongs to a class of structured distributions which, while not an exponential family, locally'' possesses key properties of exponential families. This connection then allows the problem of computing the log-concave maximum likelihood distribution to be formulated as a convex optimization problem, and solved via an approximate first-order method.

Applying probabilistic models to reinforcement learning (RL) enables the uses of powerful optimisation tools such as variational inference in RL. However, existing inference frameworks and their algorithms pose significant challenges for learning optimal policies, e.g., the lack of mode capturing behaviour in pseudo-likelihood methods, difficulties learning deterministic policies in maximum entropy RL based approaches, and a lack of analysis when function approximators are used. We propose VIREL, a theoretically grounded probabilistic inference framework for RL that utilises a parametrised action-value function to summarise future dynamics of the underlying MDP, generalising existing approaches. VIREL also benefits from a mode-seeking form of KL divergence, the ability to learn deterministic optimal polices naturally from inference, and the ability to optimise value functions and policies in separate, iterative steps. In applying variational expectation-maximisation to VIREL, we thus show that the actor-critic algorithm can be reduced to expectation-maximisation, with policy improvement equivalent to an E-step and policy evaluation to an M-step.

The inherent noise of neural systems makes it difficult to construct models which accurately capture experimental measurements of their activity. While much research has been done on how to efficiently model neural activity with descriptive models such as linear-nonlinear-models (LN), Bayesian inference for mechanistic models has received considerably less attention. One reason for this is that these models typically lead to intractable likelihoods and thus make parameter inference difficult. Here, we develop an approximate Bayesian inference scheme for a fully stochastic, biophysically inspired model of glutamate release at the ribbon synapse, a highly specialized synapse found in different sensory systems. The model translates known structural features of the ribbon synapse into a set of stochastically coupled equations.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have attracted substantial attention as an elegant probabilistic model that captures the balance between quality and diversity within sets. DPPs are conventionally parameterized by a positive semi-definite kernel matrix, and this symmetric kernel encodes only repulsive interactions between items. These so-called symmetric DPPs have significant expressive power, and have been successfully applied to a variety of machine learning tasks, including recommendation systems, information retrieval, and automatic summarization, among many others. Efficient algorithms for learning symmetric DPPs and sampling from these models have been reasonably well studied. However, relatively little attention has been given to nonsymmetric DPPs, which relax the symmetric constraint on the kernel.

Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task into account while performing the inference allows for calibrating the posterior approximation to maximize the utility. We present an automatic pipeline that co-opts continuous utilities into variational inference algorithms to account for decision-making. We provide practical strategies for approximating and maximizing the gain, and empirically demonstrate consistent improvement when calibrating approximations for specific utilities. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are flexible density estimators and have received significant attention due to their attractive inference properties. While parameter learning in SPNs is well developed, structure learning leaves something to be desired: Even though there is a plethora of SPN structure learners, most of them are somewhat ad-hoc and based on intuition rather than a clear learning principle. In this paper, we introduce a well-principled Bayesian framework for SPN structure learning. The first is rather unproblematic and akin to neural network architecture validation. The second represents the effective structure of the SPN and needs to respect the usual structural constraints in SPN, i.e. completeness and decomposability.