We propose a projected Stein variational Newton (pSVN) method for high-dimensional Bayesian inference. To address the curse of dimensionality, we exploit the intrinsic low-dimensional geometric structure of the posterior distribution in the high-dimensional parameter space via its Hessian (of the log posterior) operator and perform a parallel update of the parameter samples projected into a low-dimensional subspace by an SVN method. The subspace is adaptively constructed using the eigenvectors of the averaged Hessian at the current samples. We demonstrate fast convergence of the proposed method, complexity independent of the parameter and sample dimensions, and parallel scalability. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Smart portable applications increasingly rely on edge computing due to privacy and latency concerns. But guaranteeing always-on functionality comes with two major challenges: heavily resource-constrained hardware; and dynamic application conditions. Probabilistic models present an ideal solution to these challenges: they are robust to missing data, allow for joint predictions and have small data needs. In addition, ongoing efforts in field of tractable learning have resulted in probabilistic models with strict inference efficiency guarantees. However, the current notions of tractability are often limited to model complexity, disregarding the hardware's specifications and constraints.

We developed a Nonlinear Level-set Learning (NLL) method for dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional function approximation with small data. This work is motivated by a variety of design tasks in real-world engineering applications, where practitioners would replace their computationally intensive physical models (e.g., high-resolution fluid simulators) with fast-to-evaluate predictive machine learning models, so as to accelerate the engineering design processes. There are two major challenges in constructing such predictive models: (a) high-dimensional inputs (e.g., many independent design parameters) and (b) small training data, generated by running extremely time-consuming simulations. Thus, reducing the input dimension is critical to alleviate the over-fitting issue caused by data insufficiency. Existing methods, including sliced inverse regression and active subspace approaches, reduce the input dimension by learning a linear coordinate transformation; our main contribution is to extend the transformation approach to a nonlinear regime.

When maximum likelihood estimation is infeasible, one often turns to score matching, contrastive divergence, or minimum probability flow to obtain tractable parameter estimates. We provide a unifying perspective of these techniques as minimum Stein discrepancy estimators, and use this lens to design new diffusion kernel Stein discrepancy (DKSD) and diffusion score matching (DSM) estimators with complementary strengths. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and robustness of DKSD and DSM estimators, then derive stochastic Riemannian gradient descent algorithms for their efficient optimisation. The main strength of our methodology is its flexibility, which allows us to design estimators with desirable properties for specific models at hand by carefully selecting a Stein discrepancy. We illustrate this advantage for several challenging problems for score matching, such as non-smooth, heavy-tailed or light-tailed densities.

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences. However, when only short sequences are available, the lack of data amplifies the risk of overfitting and regularization becomes critical. Due to the challenges of hyper-parameter tuning, state-of-the-art methods only parameterize regularizers by a single shared hyper-parameter, hence limiting the power of representation of the model. To solve both issues, we develop in this work an efficient algorithm based on variational expectation-maximization.

A key challenge in crowdsourcing is inferring the ground truth from noisy and unreliable data. To do so, existing approaches rely on collecting redundant information from the crowd, and aggregating it with some probabilistic method. However, oftentimes such methods are computationally inefficient, are restricted to some specific settings, or lack theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we revisit the problem of binary classification from crowdsourced data. Specifically we propose Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourcing (SBIC), a new algorithm that does not suffer from any of these limitations. First, SBIC has low complexity and can be used in a real-time online setting.

We propose a constraint-based causal feature selection method for identifying causes of a given target variable, selecting from a set of candidate variables, while there can also be hidden variables acting as common causes with the target. We prove that if we observe a cause for each candidate cause, then a single conditional independence test with one conditioning variable is sufficient to decide whether a candidate associated with the target is indeed causing it. We thus improve upon existing methods by significantly simplifying statistical testing and requiring a weaker version of causal faithfulness. Our main assumption is inspired by neuroscience paradigms where the activity of a single neuron is considered to be also caused by its own previous state. We demonstrate successful application of our method to simulated, as well as encephalographic data of twenty-one participants, recorded in Max Planck Institute for intelligent Systems.

Unsupervised learning of generative models has seen tremendous progress over recent years, in particular due to generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders, and flow-based models. GANs have dramatically improved sample quality, but suffer from two drawbacks: (i) they mode-drop, \ie, do not cover the full support of the train data, and (ii) they do not allow for likelihood evaluations on held-out data. In contrast likelihood-based training encourages models to cover the full support of the train data, but yields poorer samples. These mutual shortcomings can in principle be addressed by training generative latent variable models in a hybrid adversarial-likelihood manner. However, we show that commonly made parametric assumptions create a conflict between them, making successful hybrid models non trivial. As a solution, we propose the use of deep invertible transformations in the latent variable decoder.

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging problem due to the missing counterfactuals and selection bias. Working in the standard potential outcomes framework, we propose a data-driven modification to an arbitrary (nonparametric) prior based on the propensity score that corrects for the first-order posterior bias, thereby improving performance. We illustrate our method for Gaussian process (GP) priors using (semi-)synthetic data. Our experiments demonstrate significant improvement in both estimation accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to the unmodified GP, rendering our approach highly competitive with the state-of-the-art.

We study three fundamental statistical-learning problems: distribution estimation, property estimation, and property testing. We establish the profile maximum likelihood (PML) estimator as the first unified sample-optimal approach to a wide range of learning tasks. In particular, for every alphabet size $k$ and desired accuracy $\varepsilon$: \textbf{Distribution estimation} Under $\ell_1$ distance, PML yields optimal $\Theta(k/(\varepsilon 2\log k))$ sample complexity for sorted-distribution estimation, and a PML-based estimator empirically outperforms the Good-Turing estimator on the actual distribution; \textbf{Additive property estimation} For a broad class of additive properties, the PML plug-in estimator uses just four times the sample size required by the best estimator to achieve roughly twice its error, with exponentially higher confidence; \textbf{$\alpha$-R\'enyi entropy estimation} For an integer $\alpha 1$, the PML plug-in estimator has optimal $k {1-1/\alpha}$ sample complexity; for non-integer $\alpha 3/4$, the PML plug-in estimator has sample complexity lower than the state of the art; \textbf{Identity testing} In testing whether an unknown distribution is equal to or at least $\varepsilon$ far from a given distribution in $\ell_1$ distance, a PML-based tester achieves the optimal sample complexity up to logarithmic factors of $k$. With minor modifications, most of these results also hold for a near-linear-time computable variant of PML. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.