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 Uncertainty


Computing With Words for Student Strategy Evaluation in an Examination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the framework of Granular Computing (GC), Interval type 2 Fuzzy Sets (IT2 FSs) play a prominent role by facilitating a better representation of uncertain linguistic information. Perceptual Computing (Per C), a well known computing with words (CWW) approach, and its various applications have nicely exploited this advantage. This paper reports a novel Per C based approach for student strategy evaluation. Examinations are generally oriented to test the subject knowledge of students. The number of questions that they are able to solve accurately judges success rates of students in the examinations. However, we feel that not only the solutions of questions, but also the strategy adopted for finding those solutions are equally important. More marks should be awarded to a student, who solves a question with a better strategy compared to a student, whose strategy is relatively not that good. Furthermore, the students strategy can be taken as a measure of his or her learning outcome as perceived by a faculty member. This can help to identify students, whose learning outcomes are not good, and, thus, can be provided with any relevant help, for improvement. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate the use of CWW for student strategy evaluation and present a comparison of the recommendations generated by different CWW approaches. CWW provides us with two major advantages. First, it generates a numeric score for the overall evaluation of strategy adopted by a student in the examination. This enables comparison and ranking of the students based on their performances. Second, a linguistic evaluation describing the student strategy is also obtained from the system. Both these numeric score and linguistic recommendation are together used to assess the quality of a students strategy. We found that Per-C generates unique recommendations in all cases and outperforms other CWW approaches.


35 Words About Uncertainty, Every AI-Savvy Leader Must Know

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Bayes' rule: (or Bayes' theorem) of one probability theory's most important rules, describing the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related:


TRIPDECODER: Study Travel Time Attributes and Route Preferences of Metro Systems from Smart Card Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we target at recovering the exact routes taken by commuters inside a metro system that arenot captured by an Automated Fare Collection (AFC) system and hence remain unknown. We strategicallypropose two inference tasks to handle the recovering, one to infer the travel time of each travel link thatcontributes to the total duration of any trip inside a metro network and the other to infer the route preferencesbased on historical trip records and the travel time of each travel link inferred in the previous inferencetask. As these two inference tasks have interrelationship, most of existing works perform these two taskssimultaneously. However, our solutionTripDecoderadopts a totally different approach. To the best of ourknowledge,TripDecoderis the first model that points out and fully utilizes the fact that there are some tripsinside a metro system with only one practical route available. It strategically decouples these two inferencetasks by only taking those trip records with only one practical route as the input for the first inference taskof travel time and feeding the inferred travel time to the second inference task as an additional input whichnot only improves the accuracy but also effectively reduces the complexity of both inference tasks. Twocase studies have been performed based on the city-scale real trip records captured by the AFC systems inSingapore and Taipei to compare the accuracy and efficiency ofTripDecoderand its competitors. As expected,TripDecoderhas achieved the best accuracy in both datasets, and it also demonstrates its superior efficiencyand scalability.


Jukebox: A Generative Model for Music

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce Jukebox, a model that generates music with singing in the raw audio domain. We tackle the long context of raw audio using a multi-scale VQ-VAE to compress it to discrete codes, and modeling those using autoregressive Transformers. We show that the combined model at scale can generate high-fidelity and diverse songs with coherence up to multiple minutes. We can condition on artist and genre to steer the musical and vocal style, and on unaligned lyrics to make the singing more controllable. We are releasing thousands of non cherry-picked samples at https://jukebox.openai.com, along with model weights and code at https://github.com/openai/jukebox


Bayesian Online Meta-Learning with Laplace Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural networks are known to suffer from catastrophic forgetting when trained on sequential datasets. While there have been numerous attempts to solve this problem for large-scale supervised classification, little has been done to overcome catastrophic forgetting for few-shot classification problems. We demonstrate that the popular gradient-based few-shot meta-learning algorithm Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) indeed suffers from catastrophic forgetting and introduce a Bayesian online meta-learning framework that tackles this problem. Our framework incorporates MAML into a Bayesian online learning algorithm with Laplace approximation. This framework enables few-shot classification on a range of sequentially arriving datasets with a single meta-learned model. The experimental evaluations demonstrate that our framework can effectively prevent forgetting in various few-shot classification settings compared to applying MAML sequentially.


Parallel processor scheduling: formulation as multi-objective linguistic optimization and solution using Perceptual Reasoning based methodology

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the era of Industry 4.0, the focus is on the minimization of human element and maximizing the automation in almost all the industrial and manufacturing establishments. These establishments contain numerous processing systems, which can execute a number of tasks, in parallel with minimum number of human beings. This parallel execution of tasks is done in accordance to a scheduling policy. However, the minimization of human element beyond a certain point is difficult. In fact, the expertise and experience of a group of humans, called the experts, becomes imminent to design a fruitful scheduling policy. The aim of the scheduling policy is to achieve the optimal value of an objective, like production time, cost, etc. In real-life situations, there are more often than not, multiple objectives in any parallel processing scenario. Furthermore, the experts generally provide their opinions, about various scheduling criteria (pertaining to the scheduling policies) in linguistic terms or words. Word semantics are best modeled using fuzzy sets (FSs). Thus, all these factors have motivated us to model the parallel processing scenario as a multi-objective linguistic optimization problem (MOLOP) and use the novel perceptual reasoning (PR) based methodology for solving it. We have also compared the results of the PR based solution methodology with those obtained from the 2-tuple based solution methodology. PR based solution methodology offers three main advantages viz., it generates unique recommendations, here the linguistic recommendations match a codebook word, and also the word model comes before the word. 2-tuple based solution methodology fails to give all these advantages. Thus, we feel that our work is novel and will provide directions for the future research.


Perceptual reasoning based solution methodology for linguistic optimization problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decision making in real-life scenarios may often be modeled as an optimization problem. It requires the consideration of various attributes like human preferences and thinking, which constrain achieving the optimal value of the problem objectives. The value of the objectives may be maximized or minimized, depending on the situation. Numerous times, the values of these problem parameters are in linguistic form, as human beings naturally understand and express themselves using words. These problems are therefore termed as linguistic optimization problems (LOPs), and are of two types, namely single objective linguistic optimization problems (SOLOPs) and multi-objective linguistic optimization problems (MOLOPs). In these LOPs, the value of the objective function(s) may not be known at all points of the decision space, and therefore, the objective function(s) as well as problem constraints are linked by the if-then rules. Tsukamoto inference method has been used to solve these LOPs; however, it suffers from drawbacks. As, the use of linguistic information inevitably calls for the utilization of computing with words (CWW), and therefore, 2-tuple linguistic model based solution methodologies were proposed for LOPs. However, we found that 2-tuple linguistic model based solution methodologies represent the semantics of the linguistic information using a combination of type-1 fuzzy sets and ordinal term sets. As, the semantics of linguistic information are best modeled using the interval type-2 fuzzy sets, hence we propose solution methodologies for LOPs based on CWW approach of perceptual computing, in this paper. The perceptual computing based solution methodologies use a novel design of CWW engine, called the perceptual reasoning (PR). PR in the current form is suitable for solving SOLOPs and, hence, we have also extended it to the MOLOPs.


An empirical study of computing with words approaches for multi-person and single-person systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computing with words (CWW) has emerged as a powerful tool for processing the linguistic information, especially the one generated by human beings. Various CWW approaches have emerged since the inception of CWW, such as perceptual computing, extension principle based CWW approach, symbolic method based CWW approach, and 2-tuple based CWW approach. Furthermore, perceptual computing can use interval approach (IA), enhanced interval approach (EIA), or Hao-Mendel approach (HMA), for data processing. There have been numerous works in which HMA was shown to be better at word modelling than EIA, and EIA better than IA. But, a deeper study of these works reveals that HMA captures lesser fuzziness than the EIA or IA. Thus, we feel that EIA is more suited for word modelling in multi-person systems and HMA for single-person systems (as EIA is an improvement over IA). Furthermore, another set of works, compared the performances perceptual computing to the other above said CWW approaches. In all these works, perceptual computing was shown to be better than other CWW approaches. However, none of the works tried to investigate the reason behind this observed better performance of perceptual computing. Also, no comparison has been performed for scenarios where the inputs are differentially weighted. Thus, the aim of this work is to empirically establish that EIA is suitable for multi-person systems and HMA for single-person systems. Another dimension of this work is also to empirically prove that perceptual computing gives better performance than other CWW approaches based on extension principle, symbolic method and 2-tuple especially in scenarios where inputs are differentially weighted.


Introduction to Artificial Intelligence

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This accessible and engaging textbook presents a concise introduction to the exciting field of artificial intelligence (AI). The broad-ranging discussion covers the key subdisciplines within the field, describing practical algorithms and concrete applications in the areas of agents, logic, search, reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, neural networks, and reinforcement learning. Fully revised and updated, this much-anticipated second edition also includes new material on deep learning. Dr. Wolfgang Ertel is a professor at the Institute for Artificial Intelligence at the Ravensburg-Weingarten University of Applied Sciences, Germany.


COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning by Sina F. Ardabili, Amir Mosavi, Pedram Ghamisi, Filip Ferdinand, Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy, Uwe Reuter, Timon Rabczuk, Peter M. Atkinson :: SSRN

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Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to SIR and SEIR models.