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 Uncertainty


Vocabulary Alignment in Openly Specified Interactions

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

The problem of achieving common understanding between agents that use different vocabularies has been mainly addressed by techniques that assume the existence of shared external elements, such as a meta-language or a physical environment. In this article, we consider agents that use different vocabularies and only share knowledge of how to perform a task, given by the specification of an interaction protocol. We present a framework that lets agents learn a vocabulary alignment from the experience of interacting. Unlike previous work in this direction, we use open protocols that constrain possible actions instead of defining procedures, making our approach more general. We present two techniques that can be used either to learn an alignment from scratch or to repair an existent one, and we evaluate their performance experimentally.


Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Improving Weights for Solving Multi-Objective Route Optimization Problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The weighted sum method is a simple and widely used technique that scalarizes multiple conflicting objectives into a single objective function. It suffers from the problem of determining the appropriate weights corresponding to the objectives. This paper proposes a novel Hierarchical Bayesian model based on Multinomial distribution and Dirichlet prior to refine the weights for solving such multi-objective route optimization problems. The model and methodologies revolve around data obtained from a small scale pilot survey. The method aims at improving the existing methods of weight determination in the field of Intelligent Transport Systems as data driven choice of weights through appropriate probabilistic modelling ensures, on an average, much reliable results than non-probabilistic techniques. Application of this model and methodologies to simulated as well as real data sets revealed quite encouraging performances with respect to stabilizing the estimates of weights.


A Formal Critique of the Value of the Colombian P\'aramo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ESF thus beckons the valuation of ecosystem services (VES) as a means to signalling nature's contribution to the (re)production of value (Barbier et al., 2009; Villa et al., 2009; Fisher et al., 2010; Gรณmez-Baggethun et al., 2016); for value is the central category of modern capitalist societies, and the valorisation of value -- i.e., economic growth sublimated into economic development -- their driving force (see, e.g., Mankiw (2016) and Holden et al. (2017)). VES is, in this sense, inscribed in an interpretive approach to modern capitalist praxis, not only invoking assumptions that are instrumentally validated in a retroactive manner, but also taking for granted precisely those historical and material conditions which VES is meant to interpret and, in doing so, reproduce. Overlooking the historical basis of ESF and VES has important practical consequences. When VES practitioners elicit value, a moment or specific field of the social praxis embodied in the valorisation of value is inaugurated, allowing value to mediate other social constructs built around the idea of nature. Since the patterns of actions that make up the capitalist social praxis are presupposed within this new ambit, value takes on a transhistorical quality that justifies its allencompassing and unreflective usage (see, e.g., Badura et al. (2016) and Gรณmez-Baggethun and Martรญn-Lรณpez (2015)).


Type-2 fuzzy reliability redundancy allocation problem and its solution using particle swarm optimization algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, the fuzzy multi-objective reliability redundancy allocation problem (FMORRAP) is proposed, which maximizes the system reliability while simultaneously minimizing the system cost under the type 2 fuzzy uncertainty. In the proposed formulation, the higher order uncertainties (such as parametric, manufacturing, environmental, and designers uncertainty) associated with the system are modeled with interval type 2 fuzzy sets (IT2 FS). The footprint of uncertainty of the interval type 2 membership functions (IT2 MFs) accommodates these uncertainties by capturing the multiple opinions from several system experts. We consider IT2 MFs to represent the subsystem reliability and cost, which are to be further aggregated using extension principle to evaluate the total system reliability and cost according to their configurations, i.e., series parallel and parallel series. We proposed a particle swarm optimization (PSO) based novel solution approach to solve the FMORRAP. To demonstrate the applicability of two formulations, namely, series parallel FMORRAP and parallel series FMORRAP, we performed experimental simulations on various numerical data sets. The decision makers/system experts assign different importance to the objectives (system reliability and cost), and these preferences are represented by sets of weights. The optimal results are obtained from our solution approach, and the Pareto optimal front is established using these different weight sets. The genetic algorithm (GA) was implemented to compare the results obtained from our proposed solution approach. A statistical analysis was conducted between PSO and GA, and it was found that the PSO based Pareto solution outperforms the GA.


Large-scale Uncertainty Estimation and Its Application in Revenue Forecast of SMEs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The economic and banking importance of the small and medium enterprise (SME) sector is well recognized in contemporary society. Business credit loans are very important for the operation of SMEs, and the revenue is a key indicator of credit limit management. Therefore, it is very beneficial to construct a reliable revenue forecasting model. If the uncertainty of an enterprise's revenue forecasting can be estimated, a more proper credit limit can be granted. Natural gradient boosting approach, which estimates the uncertainty of prediction by a multi-parameter boosting algorithm based on the natural gradient. However, its original implementation is not easy to scale into big data scenarios, and computationally expensive compared to state-of-the-art tree-based models (such as XGBoost). In this paper, we propose a Scalable Natural Gradient Boosting Machines that is simple to implement, readily parallelizable, interpretable and yields high-quality predictive uncertainty estimates. According to the characteristics of revenue distribution, we derive an uncertainty quantification function. We demonstrate that our method can distinguish between samples that are accurate and inaccurate on revenue forecasting of SMEs. What's more, interpretability can be naturally obtained from the model, satisfying the financial needs.


Computing With Words for Student Strategy Evaluation in an Examination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the framework of Granular Computing (GC), Interval type 2 Fuzzy Sets (IT2 FSs) play a prominent role by facilitating a better representation of uncertain linguistic information. Perceptual Computing (Per C), a well known computing with words (CWW) approach, and its various applications have nicely exploited this advantage. This paper reports a novel Per C based approach for student strategy evaluation. Examinations are generally oriented to test the subject knowledge of students. The number of questions that they are able to solve accurately judges success rates of students in the examinations. However, we feel that not only the solutions of questions, but also the strategy adopted for finding those solutions are equally important. More marks should be awarded to a student, who solves a question with a better strategy compared to a student, whose strategy is relatively not that good. Furthermore, the students strategy can be taken as a measure of his or her learning outcome as perceived by a faculty member. This can help to identify students, whose learning outcomes are not good, and, thus, can be provided with any relevant help, for improvement. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate the use of CWW for student strategy evaluation and present a comparison of the recommendations generated by different CWW approaches. CWW provides us with two major advantages. First, it generates a numeric score for the overall evaluation of strategy adopted by a student in the examination. This enables comparison and ranking of the students based on their performances. Second, a linguistic evaluation describing the student strategy is also obtained from the system. Both these numeric score and linguistic recommendation are together used to assess the quality of a students strategy. We found that Per-C generates unique recommendations in all cases and outperforms other CWW approaches.


35 Words About Uncertainty, Every AI-Savvy Leader Must Know

#artificialintelligence

Bayes' rule: (or Bayes' theorem) of one probability theory's most important rules, describing the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related:


TRIPDECODER: Study Travel Time Attributes and Route Preferences of Metro Systems from Smart Card Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we target at recovering the exact routes taken by commuters inside a metro system that arenot captured by an Automated Fare Collection (AFC) system and hence remain unknown. We strategicallypropose two inference tasks to handle the recovering, one to infer the travel time of each travel link thatcontributes to the total duration of any trip inside a metro network and the other to infer the route preferencesbased on historical trip records and the travel time of each travel link inferred in the previous inferencetask. As these two inference tasks have interrelationship, most of existing works perform these two taskssimultaneously. However, our solutionTripDecoderadopts a totally different approach. To the best of ourknowledge,TripDecoderis the first model that points out and fully utilizes the fact that there are some tripsinside a metro system with only one practical route available. It strategically decouples these two inferencetasks by only taking those trip records with only one practical route as the input for the first inference taskof travel time and feeding the inferred travel time to the second inference task as an additional input whichnot only improves the accuracy but also effectively reduces the complexity of both inference tasks. Twocase studies have been performed based on the city-scale real trip records captured by the AFC systems inSingapore and Taipei to compare the accuracy and efficiency ofTripDecoderand its competitors. As expected,TripDecoderhas achieved the best accuracy in both datasets, and it also demonstrates its superior efficiencyand scalability.


Jukebox: A Generative Model for Music

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce Jukebox, a model that generates music with singing in the raw audio domain. We tackle the long context of raw audio using a multi-scale VQ-VAE to compress it to discrete codes, and modeling those using autoregressive Transformers. We show that the combined model at scale can generate high-fidelity and diverse songs with coherence up to multiple minutes. We can condition on artist and genre to steer the musical and vocal style, and on unaligned lyrics to make the singing more controllable. We are releasing thousands of non cherry-picked samples at https://jukebox.openai.com, along with model weights and code at https://github.com/openai/jukebox


Bayesian Online Meta-Learning with Laplace Approximation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural networks are known to suffer from catastrophic forgetting when trained on sequential datasets. While there have been numerous attempts to solve this problem for large-scale supervised classification, little has been done to overcome catastrophic forgetting for few-shot classification problems. We demonstrate that the popular gradient-based few-shot meta-learning algorithm Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) indeed suffers from catastrophic forgetting and introduce a Bayesian online meta-learning framework that tackles this problem. Our framework incorporates MAML into a Bayesian online learning algorithm with Laplace approximation. This framework enables few-shot classification on a range of sequentially arriving datasets with a single meta-learned model. The experimental evaluations demonstrate that our framework can effectively prevent forgetting in various few-shot classification settings compared to applying MAML sequentially.