Binary classification is widely used in ML production systems. Monitoring classifiers in a constrained event space is well known. However, real world production systems often lack the ground truth these methods require. Privacy concerns may also require that the ground truth needed to evaluate the classifiers cannot be made available. In these autonomous settings, non-parametric estimators of performance are an attractive solution. They do not require theoretical models about how the classifiers made errors in any given sample. They just estimate how many errors there are in a sample of an industrial or robotic datastream. We construct one such non-parametric estimator of the sample errors for an ensemble of weak binary classifiers. Our approach uses algebraic geometry to reformulate the self-assessment problem for ensembles of binary classifiers as an exact polynomial system. The polynomial formulation can then be used to prove - as an algebraic geometry algorithm - that no general solution to the self-assessment problem is possible. However, specific solutions are possible in settings where the engineering context puts the classifiers close to independent errors. The practical utility of the method is illustrated on a real-world dataset from an online advertising campaign and a sample of common classification benchmarks. The accuracy estimators in the experiments where we have ground truth are better than one part in a hundred. The online advertising campaign data, where we do not have ground truth data, is verified by an internal consistency approach whose validity we conjecture as an algebraic geometry theorem. We call this approach - algebraic ground truth inference.

Optimal Transport (OT) is being widely used in various fields such as machine learning and computer vision, as it is a powerful tool for measuring the similarity between probability distributions and histograms. In previous studies, OT has been defined as the minimum cost to transport probability mass from one probability distribution to another. In this study, we propose a new framework in which OT is considered as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution of a probabilistic generative model. With the proposed framework, we show that OT with entropic regularization is equivalent to maximizing a posterior probability of a probabilistic model called Collective Graphical Model (CGM), which describes aggregated statistics of multiple samples generated from a graphical model. Interpreting OT as a MAP solution of a CGM has the following two advantages: (i) We can calculate the discrepancy between noisy histograms by modeling noise distributions. Since various distributions can be used for noise modeling, it is possible to select the noise distribution flexibly to suit the situation. (ii) We can construct a new method for interpolation between histograms, which is an important application of OT. The proposed method allows for intuitive modeling based on the probabilistic interpretations, and a simple and efficient estimation algorithm is available. Experiments using synthetic and real-world spatio-temporal population datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed interpolation method.

To build a flexible and interpretable model for document analysis, we develop deep autoencoding topic model (DATM) that uses a hierarchy of gamma distributions to construct its multi-stochastic-layer generative network. In order to provide scalable posterior inference for the parameters of the generative network, we develop topic-layer-adaptive stochastic gradient Riemannian MCMC that jointly learns simplex-constrained global parameters across all layers and topics, with topic and layer specific learning rates. Given a posterior sample of the global parameters, in order to efficiently infer the local latent representations of a document under DATM across all stochastic layers, we propose a Weibull upward-downward variational encoder that deterministically propagates information upward via a deep neural network, followed by a Weibull distribution based stochastic downward generative model. To jointly model documents and their associated labels, we further propose supervised DATM that enhances the discriminative power of its latent representations. The efficacy and scalability of our models are demonstrated on both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks on big corpora.

In this paper, we study the problem of learning the skill distribution of a population of agents from observations of pairwise games in a tournament. These games are played among randomly drawn agents from the population. The agents in our model can be individuals, sports teams, or Wall Street fund managers. Formally, we postulate that the likelihoods of game outcomes are governed by the Bradley-Terry-Luce (or multinomial logit) model, where the probability of an agent beating another is the ratio between its skill level and the pairwise sum of skill levels, and the skill parameters are drawn from an unknown skill density of interest. The problem is, in essence, to learn a distribution from noisy, quantized observations. We propose a simple and tractable algorithm that learns the skill density with near-optimal minimax mean squared error scaling as $n^{-1+\varepsilon}$, for any $\varepsilon>0$, when the density is smooth. Our approach brings together prior work on learning skill parameters from pairwise comparisons with kernel density estimation from non-parametric statistics. Furthermore, we prove minimax lower bounds which establish minimax optimality of the skill parameter estimation technique used in our algorithm. These bounds utilize a continuum version of Fano's method along with a covering argument. We apply our algorithm to various soccer leagues and world cups, cricket world cups, and mutual funds. We find that the entropy of a learnt distribution provides a quantitative measure of skill, which provides rigorous explanations for popular beliefs about perceived qualities of sporting events, e.g., soccer league rankings. Finally, we apply our method to assess the skill distributions of mutual funds. Our results shed light on the abundance of low quality funds prior to the Great Recession of 2008, and the domination of the industry by more skilled funds after the financial crisis.

The production of lithium-ion battery cells is characterized by a high degree of complexity due to numerous cause-effect relationships between process characteristics. Knowledge about the multi-stage production is spread among several experts, rendering tasks as failure analysis challenging. In this paper, a new method is presented that includes expert knowledge acquisition in production ramp-up by combining Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) with a Bayesian Network. Special algorithms are presented that help detect and resolve inconsistencies between the expert-provided parameters which are bound to occur when collecting knowledge from several process experts. We show the effectiveness of this holistic method by building up a large scale, cross-process Bayesian Failure Network in lithium-ion battery production and its application for root cause analysis.

We study the problem of modeling purchase of multiple items and utilizing it to display optimized recommendations, which is a central problem for online e-commerce platforms. Rich personalized modeling of users and fast computation of optimal products to display given these models can lead to significantly higher revenues and simultaneously enhance the end user experience. We present a parsimonious multi-purchase family of choice models called the BundleMVL-K family, and develop a binary search based iterative strategy that efficiently computes optimized recommendations for this model. This is one of the first attempts at operationalizing multi-purchase class of choice models. We characterize structural properties of the optimal solution, which allow one to decide if a product is part of the optimal assortment in constant time, reducing the size of the instance that needs to be solved computationally. We also establish the hardness of computing optimal recommendation sets. We show one of the first quantitative links between modeling multiple purchase behavior and revenue gains. The efficacy of our modeling and optimization techniques compared to competing solutions is shown using several real world datasets on multiple metrics such as model fitness, expected revenue gains and run-time reductions. The benefit of taking multiple purchases into account is observed to be $6-8\%$ in relative terms for the Ta Feng and UCI shopping datasets when compared to the MNL model for instances with $\sim 1500$ products. Additionally, across $8$ real world datasets, the test log-likelihood fits of our models are on average $17\%$ better in relative terms. The simplicity of our models and the iterative nature of our optimization technique allows practitioners meet stringent computational constraints while increasing their revenues in practical recommendation applications at scale.

The article considers the problem of the optimal control of a wind power plant based on fuzzy control and automation of generating the fuzzy rule base. Fuzzy rules by experts do not always provide a maximum power output of the wind plant and fuzzy rule bases require an adjustment in the case of changing the parameters of the wind power plant or the environment. This research proposes the method for optimizing the fuzzy rules base compiled by various experts. The method is based on balancing weights of fuzzy rules into the base by the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. The experiment has shown that the proposed method allows forming the fuzzy rule base as an exemplary optimal base from a non-optimized set of fuzzy rules. The optimal fuzzy rule base has been taken under consideration for the concrete control loop of wind power plant and the concrete fuzzy model of the wind.

We are interested in recovering information on a stochastic block model from the subgraph discovered by an exploring random walk. Stochastic block models correspond to populations structured into a finite number of types, where two individuals are connected by an edge independently from the other pairs and with a probability depending on their types. We consider here the dense case where the random network can be approximated by a graphon. This problem is motivated from the study of chain-referral surveys where each interviewee provides information on her/his contacts in the social network. First, we write the likelihood of the subgraph discovered by the random walk: biases are appearing since hubs and majority types are more likely to be sampled. Even for the case where the types are observed, the maximum likelihood estimator is not explicit any more. When the types of the vertices is unobserved, we use an SAEM algorithm to maximize the likelihood. Second, we propose a different estimation strategy using new results by Athreya and Roellin. It consists in de-biasing the maximum likelihood estimator proposed in Daudin et al. and that ignores the biases.

Rapid developments in data collecting devices and computation platforms produce an emerging number of learners and data modalities in many scientific domains. We consider the setting in which each learner holds a pair of parametric statistical model and a specific data source, with the goal of integrating information across a set of learners to enhance the prediction accuracy of a specific learner. One natural way to integrate information is to build a joint model across a set of learners that shares common parameters of interest. However, the parameter sharing patterns across a set of learners are not known a priori. Misspecifying the parameter sharing patterns and the parametric statistical model for each learner yields a biased estimator and degrades the prediction accuracy of the joint model. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for integrating information across a set of learners that is robust against model misspecification and misspecified parameter sharing patterns. The main crux is to sequentially incorporates additional learners that can enhance the prediction accuracy of an existing joint model based on a user-specified parameter sharing patterns across a set of learners, starting from a model with one learner. Theoretically, we show that the proposed method can data-adaptively select the correct parameter sharing patterns based on a user-specified parameter sharing patterns, and thus enhances the prediction accuracy of a learner. Extensive numerical studies are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed method.

Digital twin technology has a huge potential for widespread applications in different industrial sectors such as infrastructure, aerospace, and automotive. However, practical adoptions of this technology have been slower, mainly due to a lack of application-specific details. Here we focus on a digital twin framework for linear single-degree-of-freedom structural dynamic systems evolving in two different operational time scales in addition to its intrinsic dynamic time-scale. Our approach strategically separates into two components -- (a) a physics-based nominal model for data processing and response predictions, and (b) a data-driven machine learning model for the time-evolution of the system parameters. The physics-based nominal model is system-specific and selected based on the problem under consideration. On the other hand, the data-driven machine learning model is generic. For tracking the multi-scale evolution of the system parameters, we propose to exploit a mixture of experts as the data-driven model. Within the mixture of experts model, Gaussian Process (GP) is used as the expert model. The primary idea is to let each expert track the evolution of the system parameters at a single time-scale. For learning the hyperparameters of the `mixture of experts using GP', an efficient framework the exploits expectation-maximization and sequential Monte Carlo sampler is used. Performance of the digital twin is illustrated on a multi-timescale dynamical system with stiffness and/or mass variations. The digital twin is found to be robust and yields reasonably accurate results. One exciting feature of the proposed digital twin is its capability to provide reasonable predictions at future time-steps. Aspects related to the data quality and data quantity are also investigated.