Ising machines (IMs) are a potential breakthrough in the NP-hard problem of score-based Bayesian network (BN) learning. To utilize the power of IMs, encoding of BN learning into quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) has been proposed using up to $\mathcal{O}(N^2)$ bits, for $N$ variables in BN and $M = 2$ parents each. However, this approach is usually infeasible owing to the upper bound of IM bits when $M \geq 3$. In this paper, we propose an efficient conversion method for BN learning into QUBO with a maximum of $\sum_n (\Lambda_n - 1) + \binom N2$ bits, for $\Lambda_n$ parent set candidates each. The advance selection of parent set candidates plays an essential role in reducing the number of required bits. We also develop a pre-processing algorithm based on the capabilities of a classification and regression tree (CART), which allows us to search for parent set candidates consistent with score minimization in a realistic timeframe.Our conversion method enables us to more significantly reduce the upper bound of the required bits in comparison to an existing method, and is therefore expected to make a significant contribution to the advancement of scalable score-based BN learning.

Computers have been used to analyze and create music since they were first introduced in the 1950s and 1960s. Beginning in the late 1990s, the rise of the Internet and large scale platforms for music recommendation and retrieval have made music an increasingly prevalent domain of machine learning and artificial intelligence research. While still nascent, several different approaches have been employed to tackle what may broadly be referred to as "musical intelligence." This article provides a definition of musical intelligence, introduces a taxonomy of its constituent components, and surveys the wide range of AI methods that can be, and have been, brought to bear in its pursuit, with a particular emphasis on machine learning methods.

The unification of logic and probability is a long-standing concern in AI, and more generally, in the philosophy of science. In essence, logic provides an easy way to specify properties that must hold in every possible world, and probability allows us to further quantify the weight and ratio of the worlds that must satisfy a property. To that end, numerous developments have been undertaken, culminating in proposals such as probabilistic relational models. While this progress has been notable, a general-purpose first-order knowledge representation language to reason about probabilities and dynamics, including in continuous settings, is still to emerge. In this paper, we survey recent results pertaining to the integration of logic, probability and actions in the situation calculus, which is arguably one of the oldest and most well-known formalisms. We then explore reduction theorems and programming interfaces for the language. These results are motivated in the context of cognitive robotics (as envisioned by Reiter and his colleagues) for the sake of concreteness. Overall, the advantage of proving results for such a general language is that it becomes possible to adapt them to any special-purpose fragment, including but not limited to popular probabilistic relational models.

The goal of item response theoretic (IRT) models is to provide estimates of latent traits from binary observed indicators and at the same time to learn the item response functions (IRFs) that map from latent trait to observed response. However, in many cases observed behavior can deviate significantly from the parametric assumptions of traditional IRT models. Nonparametric IRT models overcome these challenges by relaxing assumptions about the form of the IRFs, but standard tools are unable to simultaneously estimate flexible IRFs and recover ability estimates for respondents. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model that solves this problem by placing Gaussian process priors on the latent functions defining the IRFs. This allows us to simultaneously relax assumptions about the shape of the IRFs while preserving the ability to estimate latent traits. This in turn allows us to easily extend the model to further tasks such as active learning. GPIRT therefore provides a simple and intuitive solution to several longstanding problems in the IRT literature.

Classifying sequential data as early as and as accurately as possible is a challenging yet critical problem, especially when a sampling cost is high. One algorithm that achieves this goal is the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT), which is known as Bayes-optimal: it can keep the expected number of data samples as small as possible, given the desired error upper-bound. The SPRT has recently been found to be the best model that explains the activities of the neurons in the primate parietal cortex that are thought to mediate our complex decision-making processes. However, the original SPRT makes two critical assumptions that limit its application in real-world scenarios: (i) samples are independently and identically distributed, and (ii) the likelihood of the data being derived from each class can be calculated precisely. Here, we propose the SPRT-TANDEM, a deep neural network-based SPRT algorithm that overcomes the above two obstacles. The SPRT-TANDEM estimates the log-likelihood ratio of two alternative hypotheses by leveraging a novel Loss function for Log-Likelihood Ratio estimation (LLLR), while allowing for correlations up to $N (\in \mathbb{N})$ preceding samples. In tests on one original and two public video databases, Nosaic MNIST, UCF101, and SiW, the SPRT-TANDEM achieves statistically significantly better classification accuracy than other baseline classifiers, with a smaller number of data samples. The code and Nosaic MNIST are publicly available at https://github.com/TaikiMiyagawa/SPRT-TANDEM.

Message passing on a factor graph is a powerful paradigm for the coding of approximate inference algorithms for arbitrarily large graphical models. The notion of a factor graph fragment allows for compartmentalization of algebra and computer code. We show that the Inverse G-Wishart family of distributions enables fundamental variational message passing factor graph fragments to be expressed elegantly and succinctly. Such fragments arise in models for which approximate inference concerning covariance matrix or variance parameters is made, and are ubiquitous in contemporary statistics and machine learning. Keywords: Approximate Bayesian inference; G-Wishart distribution; mean field variational Bayes; scalable statistical methodology.

We present the Additive Poisson Process (APP), a novel framework that can model the higher-order interaction effects of the intensity functions in stochastic processes using lower dimensional projections. Our model combines the techniques in information geometry to model higher-order interactions on a statistical manifold and in generalized additive models to use lower-dimensional projections to overcome the effects from the curse of dimensionality. Our approach solves a convex optimization problem by minimizing the KL divergence from a sample distribution in lower dimensional projections to the distribution modeled by an intensity function in the stochastic process. Our empirical results show that our model is able to use samples observed in the lower dimensional space to estimate the higher-order intensity function with extremely sparse observations.

We propose an approach to estimate the effect of multiple simultaneous interventions in the presence of hidden confounders. To overcome the problem of hidden confounding, we consider the setting where we have access to not only the observational data but also sets of single-variable interventions in which each of the treatment variables is intervened on separately. We prove identifiability under the assumption that the data is generated from a nonlinear continuous structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise. In addition, we propose a simple parameter estimation method by pooling all the data from different regimes and jointly maximizing the combined likelihood. We also conduct comprehensive experiments to verify the identifiability result as well as to compare the performance of our approach against a baseline on both synthetic and real-world data.

Explainable AI (XAI) aims to provide interpretations for predictions made by learning machines, such as deep neural networks, in order to make the machines more transparent for the user and furthermore trustworthy also for applications in e.g. safety-critical areas. So far, however, no methods for quantifying uncertainties of explanations have been conceived, which is problematic in domains where a high confidence in explanations is a prerequisite. We therefore contribute by proposing a new framework that allows to convert any arbitrary explanation method for neural networks into an explanation method for Bayesian neural networks, with an in-built modeling of uncertainties. Within the Bayesian framework a network's weights follow a distribution that extends standard single explanation scores and heatmaps to distributions thereof, in this manner translating the intrinsic network model uncertainties into a quantification of explanation uncertainties. This allows us for the first time to carve out uncertainties associated with a model explanation and subsequently gauge the appropriate level of explanation confidence for a user (using percentiles). We demonstrate the effectiveness and usefulness of our approach extensively in various experiments, both qualitatively and quantitatively.

The problem of selecting a small, yet high quality subset of patterns from a larger collection of itemsets has recently attracted lot of research. Here we discuss an approach to this problem using the notion of decomposable families of itemsets. Such itemset families define a probabilistic model for the data from which the original collection of itemsets has been derived from. Furthermore, they induce a special tree structure, called a junction tree, familiar from the theory of Markov Random Fields. The method has several advantages. The junction trees provide an intuitive representation of the mining results. From the computational point of view, the model provides leverage for problems that could be intractable using the entire collection of itemsets. We provide an efficient algorithm to build decomposable itemset families, and give an application example with frequency bound querying using the model. Empirical results show that our algorithm yields high quality results.