Variational inference (VI) plays an essential role in approximate Bayesian inference due to its computational efficiency and broad applicability. Crucial to the performance of VI is the selection of the associated divergence measure, as VI approximates the intractable distribution by minimizing this divergence. In this paper we propose a meta-learning algorithm to learn the divergence metric suited for the task of interest, automating the design of VI methods. In addition, we learn the initialization of the variational parameters without additional cost when our method is deployed in the few-shot learning scenarios. We demonstrate our approach outperforms standard VI on Gaussian mixture distribution approximation, Bayesian neural network regression, image generation with variational autoencoders and recommender systems with a partial variational autoencoder.

We study the problem of learning the Markov order in categorical sequences that represent paths in a network, i.e. sequences of variable lengths where transitions between states are constrained to a known graph. Such data pose challenges for standard Markov order detection methods and demand modelling techniques that explicitly account for the graph constraint. Adopting a multi-order modelling framework for paths, we develop a Bayesian learning technique that (i) more reliably detects the correct Markov order compared to a competing method based on the likelihood ratio test, (ii) requires considerably less data compared to methods using AIC or BIC, and (iii) is robust against partial knowledge of the underlying constraints. We further show that a recently published method that uses a likelihood ratio test has a tendency to overfit the true Markov order of paths, which is not the case for our Bayesian technique. Our method is important for data scientists analyzing patterns in categorical sequence data that are subject to (partially) known constraints, e.g. sequences with forbidden words, mobility trajectories and click stream data, or sequence data in bioinformatics. Addressing the key challenge of model selection, our work is further relevant for the growing body of research that emphasizes the need for higher-order models in network analysis.

A simple yet effective architectural design of radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) makes them amongst the most popular conventional neural networks. The current generation of radial basis function neural network is equipped with multiple kernels which provide significant performance benefits compared to the previous generation using only a single kernel. In existing multi-kernel RBF algorithms, multi-kernel is formed by the convex combination of the base/primary kernels. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-kernel RBFNN in which every base kernel has its own (local) weight. This novel flexibility in the network provides better performance such as faster convergence rate, better local minima and resilience against stucking in poor local minima. These performance gains are achieved at a competitive computational complexity compared to the contemporary multi-kernel RBF algorithms. The proposed algorithm is thoroughly analysed for performance gain using mathematical and graphical illustrations and also evaluated on three different types of problems namely: (i) pattern classification, (ii) system identification and (iii) function approximation. Empirical results clearly show the superiority of the proposed algorithm compared to the existing state-of-the-art multi-kernel approaches.

As described in [1][2], time series data includes many kinds of real experimental data taken from various domains such as finance, medicine, scientific research (e.g., global warming, speech analysis, earthquakes), etc. Time series forecasting has many real applications in various areas such as forecasting of business (e.g., sales, stock), weather, decease, and others [2]. Statistical modeling and inference (e.g., ARIMA model) [1][2] is one of the popular methods for time series analysis and forecasting. The philosophy of Bayesian inference is to consider probability as a measure of believability in an event [3][4][5] and use Bayes' theorem to update the probability as more evidence or information becomes available, while the philosophy of frequentist inference considers probability as the long-run frequency of events [3]. Generally speaking, we can use the Frequentist inference only when a large number of data samples are available.

While supporting the execution of business processes, information systems record event logs. Conformance checking relies on these logs to analyze whether the recorded behavior of a process conforms to the behavior of a normative specification. A key assumption of existing conformance checking techniques, however, is that all events are associated with timestamps that allow to infer a total order of events per process instance. Unfortunately, this assumption is often violated in practice. Due to synchronization issues, manual event recordings, or data corruption, events are only partially ordered. In this paper, we put forward the problem of partial order resolution of event logs to close this gap. It refers to the construction of a probability distribution over all possible total orders of events of an instance. To cope with the order uncertainty in real-world data, we present several estimators for this task, incorporating different notions of behavioral abstraction. Moreover, to reduce the runtime of conformance checking based on partial order resolution, we introduce an approximation method that comes with a bounded error in terms of accuracy. Our experiments with real-world and synthetic data reveal that our approach improves accuracy over the state-of-the-art considerably.

The Expected Free Energy (EFE) is a central quantity in the theory of active inference. It is the quantity that all active inference agents are mandated to minimize through action, and its decomposition into extrinsic and intrinsic value terms is key to the balance of exploration and exploitation that active inference agents evince. Despite its importance, the mathematical origins of this quantity and its relation to the Variational Free Energy (VFE) remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate the origins of the EFE in detail and show that it is not simply "the free energy in the future". We present a functional that we argue is the natural extension of the VFE, but which actively discourages exploratory behaviour, thus demonstrating that exploration does not directly follow from free energy minimization into the future. We then develop a novel objective, the Free-Energy of the Expected Future (FEEF), which possesses both the epistemic component of the EFE as well as an intuitive mathematical grounding as the divergence between predicted and desired futures.

There are several ways to categorise reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, such as either model-based or model-free, policy-based or planning-based, on-policy or off-policy, and online or offline. Broad classification schemes such as these help provide a unified perspective on disparate techniques and can contextualise and guide the development of new algorithms. In this paper, we utilise the control as inference framework to outline a novel classification scheme based on amortised and iterative inference. We demonstrate that a wide range of algorithms can be classified in this manner providing a fresh perspective and highlighting a range of existing similarities. Moreover, we show that taking this perspective allows us to identify parts of the algorithmic design space which have been relatively unexplored, suggesting new routes to innovative RL algorithms.

These are the lecture notes for FAU's YouTube Lecture "Deep Learning". This is a full transcript of the lecture video & matching slides. We hope, you enjoy this as much as the videos. Of course, this transcript was created with deep learning techniques largely automatically and only minor manual modifications were performed. If you spot mistakes, please let us know!

Teleoperation of physically assistive machines is usually facilitated by interfaces that are low-dimensional and have unique physical mechanisms for their activation. Accidental deviations from intended user input commands due to motor limitations can potentially affect user satisfaction and task performance. In this paper, we present an assistance system that reasons about a human's intended actions during robot teleoperation in order to provide appropriate corrections for unintended behavior. We model the human's physical interaction with a control interface during robot teleoperation using the framework of dynamic Bayesian Networks in which we distinguish between intended and measured physical actions explicitly. By reasoning over the unobserved intentions using model-based inference techniques, our assistive system provides customized corrections on a user's issued commands. We present results from (1) a simulation-based study in which we validate our algorithm and (2) a 10-person human subject study in which we evaluate the performance of the proposed assistance paradigms. Our results suggest that (a) the corrective assistance paradigm helped to significantly reduce objective task effort as measured by task completion time and number of mode switches and (b) the assistance paradigms helped to reduce cognitive workload and user frustration and improve overall satisfaction.

Modern genomic studies are increasingly focused on identifying more and more genes clinically associated with a health response. Commonly used Bayesian shrinkage priors are designed primarily to detect only a handful of signals when the dimension of the predictors is very high. In this article, we investigate the performance of a popular continuous shrinkage prior in the presence of relatively large number of true signals. We draw attention to an undesirable phenomenon; the posterior mean is rendered very close to a null vector, caused by a sharp underestimation of the global-scale parameter. The phenomenon is triggered by the absence of a tail-index controlling mechanism in the Bayesian shrinkage priors. We provide a remedy by developing a global-local-tail shrinkage prior which can automatically learn the tail-index and can provide accurate inference even in the presence of moderately large number of signals. The collapsing behavior of the Horseshoe with its remedy is exemplified in numerical examples and in two gene expression datasets.