A Columbia University research team affiliated with the Data Science Institute (DSI) has received a Facebook Probability and Programming research award to develop static analysis methods that will enhance the usability and accuracy of probabilistic programming. The team includes Jeannette M. Wing, DSI's Avanessians Director and Professor of Computer Science; Andrew Gelman, Professor of Statistics and Political Science and DSI member; and Ryan Bernstein, a doctoral student in computer science who is co-advised by Wing and Gelman. The three will conduct a static analysis of Stan, an open-source probabilistic language program developed mainly at Columbia that describes statistical models. Their analysis will make it easier for users to reliably design statistical and machine learning models in high-level programming languages, according to Gelman, who is a co-principal investigator on the award. "Stan is used in applications ranging from drug development [for Novartis] to political polling and forecasting [for YouGov and The Economist]," Gelman said.

Propositional model counting or #SAT is the problem of computing the number of satisfying assignments of a Boolean formula and many discrete probabilistic inference problems can be translated into a model counting problem to be solved by #SAT solvers. Generic ``exact'' #SAT solvers, however, are often not scalable to industrial-level instances. In this paper, we present Neuro#, an approach for learning branching heuristics for exact #SAT solvers via evolution strategies (ES) to reduce the number of branching steps the solver takes to solve an instance. We experimentally show that our approach not only reduces the step count on similarly distributed held-out instances but it also generalizes to much larger instances from the same problem family. The gap between the learned and the vanilla solver on larger instances is sometimes so wide that the learned solver can even overcome the run time overhead of querying the model and beat the vanilla in wall-clock time by orders of magnitude.

Dynamic Bayesian networks have been well explored in the literature as discrete-time models; however, their continuous-time extensions have seen comparatively little attention. In this paper, we propose the first constraint-based algorithm for learning the structure of continuous-time Bayesian networks. We discuss the different statistical tests and the underlying hypotheses used by our proposal to establish conditional independence. Finally, we validate its performance using synthetic data, and discuss its strengths and limitations. We find that score-based is more accurate in learning networks with binary variables, while our constraint-based approach is more accurate with variables assuming more than two values. However, more experiments are needed for confirmation.

Precision farming is one way of many to meet a 70 percent increase in global demand for agricultural products on current agricultural land by 2050 at reduced need of fertilizers and efficient use of water resources. The catalyst for the emergence of precision farming has been satellite positioning and navigation followed by Internet-of-Things, generating vast information that can be used to optimize farming processes in real-time. Statistical tools from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning analyze pattern in historical data, to make predictions about future events as well as intelligent actions. This special issue presents the latest development in statistical inference, machine learning and optimum control for precision farming.

Several machine learning applications involve the optimization of higher-order derivatives (e.g., gradients of gradients) during training, which can be expensive with respect to memory and computation even with automatic differentiation. As a typical example in generative modeling, score matching (SM) involves the optimization of the trace of a Hessian. To improve computing efficiency, we rewrite the SM objective and its variants in terms of directional derivatives, and present a generic strategy to efficiently approximate any-order directional derivative with finite difference (FD). Our approximation only involves function evaluations, which can be executed in parallel, and no gradient computations. Thus, it reduces the total computational cost while also improving numerical stability. We provide two instantiations by reformulating variants of SM objectives into the FD forms. Empirically, we demonstrate that our methods produce results comparable to the gradient-based counterparts while being much more computationally efficient.

The fuzzy integral is a powerful parametric nonlin-ear function with utility in a wide range of applications, from information fusion to classification, regression, decision making,interpolation, metrics, morphology, and beyond. While the fuzzy integral is in general a nonlinear operator, herein we show that it can be represented by a set of contextual linear order statistics(LOS). These operators can be obtained via sampling the fuzzy measure and clustering is used to produce a partitioning of the underlying space of linear convex sums. Benefits of our approach include scalability, improved integral/measure acquisition, generalizability, and explainable/interpretable models. Our methods are both demonstrated on controlled synthetic experiments, and also analyzed and validated with real-world benchmark data sets.

This research is about the development a fuzzy decision support system for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease based on evidence. The coronary artery disease data sets taken from University California Irvine (UCI) are used. The knowledge base of fuzzy decision support system is taken by using rules extraction method based on Rough Set Theory. The rules then are selected and fuzzified based on information from discretization of numerical attributes. Fuzzy rules weight is proposed using the information from support of extracted rules. UCI heart disease data sets collected from U.S., Switzerland and Hungary, data from Ipoh Specialist Hospital Malaysia are used to verify the proposed system. The results show that the system is able to give the percentage of coronary artery blocking better than cardiologists and angiography. The results of the proposed system were verified and validated by three expert cardiologists and are considered to be more efficient and useful.

This dissertation investigates integer linear programming (ILP) formulation of Bayesian Network structure learning problem. We review the definition and key properties of Bayesian network and explain score metrics used to measure how well certain Bayesian network structure fits the dataset. We outline the integer linear programming formulation based on the decomposability of score metrics. In order to ensure acyclicity of the structure, we add ``cluster constraints'' developed specifically for Bayesian network, in addition to cycle constraints applicable to directed acyclic graphs in general. Since there would be exponential number of these constraints if we specify them fully, we explain the methods to add them as cutting planes without declaring them all in the initial model. Also, we develop a heuristic algorithm that finds a feasible solution based on the idea of sink node on directed acyclic graphs. We implemented the ILP formulation and cutting planes as a \textsf{Python} package, and present the results of experiments with different settings on reference datasets.

In this paper, we elaborate on the use of the Sugeno integral in the context of machine learning. More specifically, we propose a method for binary classification, in which the Sugeno integral is used as an aggregation function that combines several local evaluations of an instance, pertaining to different features or measurements, into a single global evaluation. Due to the specific nature of the Sugeno integral, this approach is especially suitable for learning from ordinal data, that is, when measurements are taken from ordinal scales. This is a topic that has not received much attention in machine learning so far. The core of the learning problem itself consists of identifying the capacity underlying the Sugeno integral. To tackle this problem, we develop an algorithm based on linear programming. The algorithm also includes a suitable technique for transforming the original feature values into local evaluations (local utility scores), as well as a method for tuning a threshold on the global evaluation. To control the flexibility of the classifier and mitigate the problem of overfitting the training data, we generalize our approach toward $k$-maxitive capacities, where $k$ plays the role of a hyper-parameter of the learner. We present experimental studies, in which we compare our method with competing approaches on several benchmark data sets.

This study presents a semi-nonparametric Latent Class Choice Model (LCCM) with a flexible class membership component. The proposed model formulates the latent classes using mixture models as an alternative approach to the traditional random utility specification with the aim of comparing the two approaches on various measures including prediction accuracy and representation of heterogeneity in the choice process. Mixture models are parametric model-based clustering techniques that have been widely used in areas such as machine learning, data mining and patter recognition for clustering and classification problems. An Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is derived for the estimation of the proposed model. Using two different case studies on travel mode choice behavior, the proposed model is compared to traditional discrete choice models on the basis of parameter estimates' signs, value of time, statistical goodness-of-fit measures, and cross-validation tests. Results show that mixture models improve the overall performance of latent class choice models by providing better out-of-sample prediction accuracy in addition to better representations of heterogeneity without weakening the behavioral and economic interpretability of the choice models.