In data streams, the data distribution of arriving observations at different time points may change - a phenomenon called concept drift. While detecting concept drift is a relatively mature area of study, solutions to the uncertainty introduced by observations with missing values have only been studied in isolation. No one has yet explored whether or how these solutions might impact drift detection performance. We, however, believe that data imputation methods may actually increase uncertainty in the data rather than reducing it. We also conjecture that imputation can introduce bias into the process of estimating distribution changes during drift detection, which can make it more difficult to train a learning model. Our idea is to focus on estimating the distance between observations rather than estimating the missing values, and to define membership functions that allocate observations to histogram bins according to the estimation errors. Our solution comprises a novel masked distance learning (MDL) algorithm to reduce the cumulative errors caused by iteratively estimating each missing value in an observation and a fuzzy-weighted frequency (FWF) method for identifying discrepancies in the data distribution. The concept drift detection algorithm proposed in this paper is a singular and unified algorithm that can handle missing values, but not an imputation algorithm combined with a concept drift detection algorithm. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the advantages of this method and show its robustness in detecting drift in data with missing values. These findings reveal that missing values exert a profound impact on concept drift detection, but using fuzzy set theory to model observations can produce more reliable results than imputation.

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are popular probabilistic models of diversity. In this paper, we investigate DPPs from a new perspective: property testing of distributions. Given sample access to an unknown distribution $q$ over the subsets of a ground set, we aim to distinguish whether $q$ is a DPP distribution, or $\epsilon$-far from all DPP distributions in $\ell_1$-distance. In this work, we propose the first algorithm for testing DPPs. Furthermore, we establish a matching lower bound on the sample complexity of DPP testing. This lower bound also extends to showing a new hardness result for the problem of testing the more general class of log-submodular distributions.

Humans flexibly solve new problems that differ qualitatively from those they were trained on. This ability to generalize is supported by learned concepts that capture structure common across different problems. Here we develop a naturalistic drawing task to study how humans rapidly acquire structured prior knowledge. The task requires drawing visual objects that share underlying structure, based on a set of composable geometric rules. We show that people spontaneously learn abstract drawing procedures that support generalization, and propose a model of how learners can discover these reusable drawing programs. Trained in the same setting as humans, and constrained to produce efficient motor actions, this model discovers new drawing routines that transfer to test objects and resemble learned features of human sequences. These results suggest that two principles guiding motor program induction in the model - abstraction (general programs that ignore object-specific details) and compositionality (recombining previously learned programs) - are key for explaining how humans learn structured internal representations that guide flexible reasoning and learning.

Modern day engineering problems are ubiquitously characterized by sophisticated computer codes that map parameters or inputs to an underlying physical process. In other situations, experimental setups are used to model the physical process in a laboratory, ensuring high precision while being costly in materials and logistics. In both scenarios, only limited amount of data can be generated by querying the expensive information source at a finite number of inputs or designs. This problem is compounded further in the presence of a high-dimensional input space. State-of-the-art parameter space dimension reduction methods, such as active subspace, aim to identify a subspace of the original input space that is sufficient to explain the output response. These methods are restricted by their reliance on gradient evaluations or copious data, making them inadequate to expensive problems without direct access to gradients. The proposed methodology is gradient-free and fully Bayesian, as it quantifies uncertainty in both the low-dimensional subspace and the surrogate model parameters. This enables a full quantification of epistemic uncertainty and robustness to limited data availability. It is validated on multiple datasets from engineering and science and compared to two other state-of-the-art methods based on four aspects: a) recovery of the active subspace, b) deterministic prediction accuracy, c) probabilistic prediction accuracy, and d) training time. The comparison shows that the proposed method improves the active subspace recovery and predictive accuracy, in both the deterministic and probabilistic sense, when only few model observations are available for training, at the cost of increased training time.

Distributed linguistic representations are powerful tools for modelling the uncertainty and complexity of preference information in linguistic decision making. To provide a comprehensive perspective on the development of distributed linguistic representations in decision making, we present the taxonomy of existing distributed linguistic representations. Then, we review the key elements of distributed linguistic information processing in decision making, including the distance measurement, aggregation methods, distributed linguistic preference relations, and distributed linguistic multiple attribute decision making models. Next, we provide a discussion on ongoing challenges and future research directions from the perspective of data science and explainable artificial intelligence.

Data cleaning is naturally framed as probabilistic inference in a generative model, combining a prior distribution over ground-truth databases with a likelihood that models the noisy channel by which the data are filtered, corrupted, and joined to yield incomplete, dirty, and denormalized datasets. Based on this view, we present PClean, a unified generative modeling architecture for cleaning and normalizing dirty data in diverse domains. Given an unclean dataset and a probabilistic program encoding relevant domain knowledge, PClean learns a structured representation of the data as a relational database of interrelated objects, and uses this latent structure to impute missing values, identify duplicates, detect errors, and propose corrections in the original data table. PClean makes three modeling and inference contributions: (i) a domain-general non-parametric generative model of relational data, for inferring latent objects and their network of latent connections; (ii) a domain-specific probabilistic programming language, for encoding domain knowledge specific to each dataset being cleaned; and (iii) a domain-general inference engine that adapts to each PClean program by constructing data-driven proposals used in sequential Monte Carlo and particle Gibbs. We show empirically that short (< 50-line) PClean programs deliver higher accuracy than state-of-the-art data cleaning systems based on machine learning and weighted logic; that PClean's inference algorithm is faster than generic particle Gibbs inference for probabilistic programs; and that PClean scales to large real-world datasets with millions of rows.

This paper presents a multivariate functional data statistical approach, for spatiotemporal prediction of COVID-19 mortality counts. Specifically, spatial heterogeneous nonlinear parametric functional regression trend model fitting is first implemented. Classical and Bayesian infinite-dimensional log-Gaussian linear residual correlation analysis is then applied. The nonlinear regression predictor of the mortality risk is combined with the plug-in predictor of the multiplicative error term. An empirical model ranking, based on random K-fold validation, is established for COVID-19 mortality risk forecasting and assessment, involving Machine Learning (ML) models, and the adopted Classical and Bayesian semilinear estimation approach. This empirical analysis also determines the ML models favored by the spatial multivariate Functional Data Analysis (FDA) framework. The results could be extrapolated to other countries.

Machine learning algorithms have been used widely in various applications and areas. To fit a machine learning model into different problems, its hyper-parameters must be tuned. Selecting the best hyper-parameter configuration for machine learning models has a direct impact on the model's performance. It often requires deep knowledge of machine learning algorithms and appropriate hyper-parameter optimization techniques. Although several automatic optimization techniques exist, they have different strengths and drawbacks when applied to different types of problems. In this paper, optimizing the hyper-parameters of common machine learning models is studied. We introduce several state-of-the-art optimization techniques and discuss how to apply them to machine learning algorithms. Many available libraries and frameworks developed for hyper-parameter optimization problems are provided, and some open challenges of hyper-parameter optimization research are also discussed in this paper. Moreover, experiments are conducted on benchmark datasets to compare the performance of different optimization methods and provide practical examples of hyper-parameter optimization. This survey paper will help industrial users, data analysts, and researchers to better develop machine learning models by identifying the proper hyper-parameter configurations effectively.

This paper studies the relationship between generalization and privacy preservation in iterative learning algorithms by two sequential steps. We first establish an alignment between generalization and privacy preservation for any learning algorithm. We prove that $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-differential privacy implies an on-average generalization bound for multi-database learning algorithms which further leads to a high-probability bound for any learning algorithm. This high-probability bound also implies a PAC-learnable guarantee for differentially private learning algorithms. We then investigate how the iterative nature shared by most learning algorithms influence privacy preservation and further generalization. Three composition theorems are proposed to approximate the differential privacy of any iterative algorithm through the differential privacy of its every iteration. By integrating the above two steps, we eventually deliver generalization bounds for iterative learning algorithms, which suggest one can simultaneously enhance privacy preservation and generalization. Our results are strictly tighter than the existing works. Particularly, our generalization bounds do not rely on the model size which is prohibitively large in deep learning. This sheds light to understanding the generalizability of deep learning. These results apply to a wide spectrum of learning algorithms. In this paper, we apply them to stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and agnostic federated learning as examples.

Consider the following problem, which we term Offline Meta Reinforcement Learning (OMRL): given the complete training histories of $N$ conventional RL agents, trained on $N$ different tasks, design a learning agent that can quickly maximize reward in a new, unseen task from the same task distribution. In particular, while each conventional RL agent explored and exploited its own different task, the OMRL agent must identify regularities in the data that lead to effective exploration/exploitation in the unseen task. To solve OMRL, we take a Bayesian RL (BRL) view, and seek to learn a Bayes-optimal policy from the offline data. We extend the recently proposed VariBAD BRL algorithm to the off-policy setting, and demonstrate learning of Bayes-optimal exploration strategies from offline data using deep neural networks. Furthermore, when applied to the online meta-RL setting (agent simultaneously collects data and improves its meta-RL policy), our method is significantly more sample efficient than the conventional VariBAD.