Predicting a customer's propensity-to-pay at an early point in the revenue cycle can provide organisations many opportunities to improve the customer experience, reduce hardship and reduce the risk of impaired cash flow and occurrence of bad debt. With the advancements in data science; machine learning techniques can be used to build models to accurately predict a customer's propensity-to-pay. Creating effective machine learning models without access to large and detailed datasets presents some significant challenges. This paper presents a case-study, conducted on a dataset from an energy organisation, to explore the uncertainty around the creation of machine learning models that are able to predict residential customers entering financial hardship which then reduces their ability to pay energy bills. Incorrect predictions can result in inefficient resource allocation and vulnerable customers not being proactively identified. This study investigates machine learning models' ability to consider different contexts and estimate the uncertainty in the prediction. Seven models from four families of machine learning algorithms are investigated for their novel utilisation. A novel concept of utilising a Baysian Neural Network to the binary classification problem of propensity-to-pay energy bills is proposed and explored for deployment.

We propose a novel amortized variational inference scheme for an empirical Bayes meta-learning model, where model parameters are treated as latent variables. We learn the prior distribution over model parameters conditioned on limited training data using a variational autoencoder approach. Our framework proposes sharing the same amortized inference network between the conditional prior and variational posterior distributions over the model parameters. While the posterior leverages both the labeled support and query data, the conditional prior is based only on the labeled support data. We show that in earlier work, relying on Monte-Carlo approximation, the conditional prior collapses to a Dirac delta function. In contrast, our variational approach prevents this collapse and preserves uncertainty over the model parameters. We evaluate our approach on the miniImageNet, CIFAR-FS and FC100 datasets, and present results demonstrating its advantages over previous work.

The linear conditional expectation (LCE) provides a best linear (or rather, affine) estimate of the conditional expectation and hence plays an important r\^ole in approximate Bayesian inference, especially the Bayes linear approach. This article establishes the analytical properties of the LCE in an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space context. In addition, working in the space of affine Hilbert--Schmidt operators, we establish a regularisation procedure for this LCE. As an important application, we obtain a simple alternative derivation and intuitive justification of the conditional mean embedding formula, a concept widely used in machine learning to perform the conditioning of random variables by embedding them into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.

We consider the multiple-source adaptation (MSA) problem and improve a previously proposed MSA solution, where accurate density estimation per domain is required to obtain favorable learning guarantees. In this work, we replace the difficult task of density estimation per domain with a much easier task of domain classification, and show that the two solutions are equivalent given the true densities and domain classifier, yet the newer approach benefits from more favorable guarantees when densities and domain classifier are estimated from finite samples. Our experiments with real-world applications demonstrate that the new discriminative MSA solution outperforms the previous solution with density estimation, as well as other domain adaptation baselines.

Incorporating a human-in-the-loop system when deploying automated decision support is critical in healthcare contexts to create trust, as well as provide reliable performance on a patient-to-patient basis. Deep learning methods while having high performance, do not allow for this patient-centered approach due to the lack of uncertainty representation. Thus, we present a framework of uncertainty representation evaluated for medical image segmentation, using MCU-Net which combines a U-Net with Monte Carlo Dropout, evaluated with four different uncertainty metrics. The framework augments this by adding a human-in-the-loop aspect based on an uncertainty threshold for automated referral of uncertain cases to a medical professional. We demonstrate that MCU-Net combined with epistemic uncertainty and an uncertainty threshold tuned for this application maximizes automated performance on an individual patient level, yet refers truly uncertain cases. This is a step towards uncertainty representations when deploying machine learning based decision support in healthcare settings.

In semi-supervised learning (SSL), a rule to predict labels $y$ for data $x$ is learned from labelled data $(x^l,y^l)$ and unlabelled samples $x^u$. Strong progress has been made by combining a variety of methods, some of which pertain to $p(x)$, e.g. data augmentation that generates artificial samples from true $x$; whilst others relate to model outputs $p(y|x)$, e.g. regularising predictions on unlabelled data to minimise entropy or induce mutual exclusivity. Focusing on the latter, we fill a gap in the standard text by introducing a unifying probabilistic model for discriminative semi-supervised learning, mirroring that for classical generative methods. We show that several SSL methods can be theoretically justified under our model as inducing approximate priors over predicted parameters of $p(y|x)$. For tasks where labels represent binary attributes, our model leads to a principled approach to neuro-symbolic SSL, bridging the divide between statistical learning and logical rules.

This paper presents a new variable selection approach integrated with Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider a sparse projection of input variables and a general stationary covariance model that depends on the Euclidean distance between the projected features. The sparse projection matrix is considered as an unknown parameter. We propose a forward stagewise approach with embedded gradient descent steps to co-optimize the parameter with other covariance parameters based on the maximization of a non-convex marginal likelihood function with a concave sparsity penalty, and some convergence properties of the algorithm are provided. The proposed model covers a broader class of stationary covariance functions than the existing automatic relevance determination approaches, and the solution approach is more computationally feasible than the existing MCMC sampling procedures for the automatic relevance parameter estimation with a sparsity prior. The approach is evaluated for a large number of simulated scenarios. The choice of tuning parameters and the accuracy of the parameter estimation are evaluated with the simulation study. In the comparison to some chosen benchmark approaches, the proposed approach has provided a better accuracy in the variable selection. It is applied to an important problem of identifying environmental factors that affect an atmospheric corrosion of metal alloys.

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental yet unsolved problem for deep learning. The Bayesian framework provides a principled way of uncertainty estimation but is often not scalable to modern deep neural nets (DNNs) that have a large number of parameters. Non-Bayesian methods are simple to implement but often conflate different sources of uncertainties and require huge computing resources. We propose a new method for quantifying uncertainties of DNNs from a dynamical system perspective. The core of our method is to view DNN transformations as state evolution of a stochastic dynamical system and introduce a Brownian motion term for capturing epistemic uncertainty. Based on this perspective, we propose a neural stochastic differential equation model (SDE-Net) which consists of (1) a drift net that controls the system to fit the predictive function; and (2) a diffusion net that captures epistemic uncertainty. We theoretically analyze the existence and uniqueness of the solution to SDE-Net. Our experiments demonstrate that the SDE-Net model can outperform existing uncertainty estimation methods across a series of tasks where uncertainty plays a fundamental role.

In this paper, we propose a novel information criteria-based approach to select the dimensionality of the word2vec Skip-gram (SG). From the perspective of the probability theory, SG is considered as an implicit probability distribution estimation under the assumption that there exists a true contextual distribution among words. Therefore, we apply information criteria with the aim of selecting the best dimensionality so that the corresponding model can be as close as possible to the true distribution. We examine the following information criteria for the dimensionality selection problem: the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Sequential Normalized Maximum Likelihood (SNML) criterion. SNML is the total codelength required for the sequential encoding of a data sequence on the basis of the minimum description length. The proposed approach is applied to both the original SG model and the SG Negative Sampling model to clarify the idea of using information criteria. Additionally, as the original SNML suffers from computational disadvantages, we introduce novel heuristics for its efficient computation. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate that SNML outperforms both BIC and AIC. In comparison with other evaluation methods for word embedding, the dimensionality selected by SNML is significantly closer to the optimal dimensionality obtained by word analogy or word similarity tasks.

Thompson Sampling (TS) with Gaussian Process (GP) models is a powerful tool for optimizing non-convex objective functions. Despite favorable theoretical properties, the computational complexity of the standard algorithms quickly becomes prohibitive as the number of observation points (i.e. the time horizon) grows. Scalable TS methods can be implemented using sparse GP models, but at the price of an approximation error that invalidates the existing regret bounds. Here, we prove regret bounds for TS based on approximate GP posteriors, whose application to sparse GPs shows that the improvement in computational complexity can be achieved with no loss in terms of the order of regret performance. Specifically, when necessary conditions on some algorithmic parameters are satisfied, we show an $\tilde{O}(\gamma_T\sqrt{ T})$ bound on the regret performance of TS using sparse GP models where $\gamma_T$ is an upper bound on the information gain between the observations and the underlying model.