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 Uncertainty


An in-depth comparison of methods handling mixed-attribute data for general fuzzy min-max neural network

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A general fuzzy min-max (GFMM) neural network is one of the efficient neuro-fuzzy systems for classification problems. However, a disadvantage of most of the current learning algorithms for GFMM is that they can handle effectively numerical valued features only. Therefore, this paper provides some potential approaches to adapting GFMM learning algorithms for classification problems with mixed-type or only categorical features as they are very common in practical applications and often carry very useful information. We will compare and assess three main methods of handling datasets with mixed features, including the use of encoding methods, the combination of the GFMM model with other classifiers, and employing the specific learning algorithms for both types of features. The experimental results showed that the target and James-Stein are appropriate categorical encoding methods for learning algorithms of GFMM models, while the combination of GFMM neural networks and decision trees is a flexible way to enhance the classification performance of GFMM models on datasets with the mixed features. The learning algorithms with the mixed-type feature abilities are potential approaches to deal with mixed-attribute data in a natural way, but they need further improvement to achieve a better classification accuracy. Based on the analysis, we also identify the strong and weak points of different methods and propose potential research directions.


$\beta$-Cores: Robust Large-Scale Bayesian Data Summarization in the Presence of Outliers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Modern machine learning applications should be able to address the intrinsic challenges arising over inference on massive real-world datasets, including scalability and robustness to outliers. Despite the multiple benefits of Bayesian methods (such as uncertainty-aware predictions, incorporation of experts knowledge, and hierarchical modeling), the quality of classic Bayesian inference depends critically on whether observations conform with the assumed data generating model, which is impossible to guarantee in practice. In this work, we propose a variational inference method that, in a principled way, can simultaneously scale to large datasets, and robustify the inferred posterior with respect to the existence of outliers in the observed data. Reformulating Bayes theorem via the $\beta$-divergence, we posit a robustified pseudo-Bayesian posterior as the target of inference. Moreover, relying on the recent formulations of Riemannian coresets for scalable Bayesian inference, we propose a sparse variational approximation of the robustified posterior and an efficient stochastic black-box algorithm to construct it. Overall our method allows releasing cleansed data summaries that can be applied broadly in scenarios including structured data corruption. We illustrate the applicability of our approach in diverse simulated and real datasets, and various statistical models, including Gaussian mean inference, logistic and neural linear regression, demonstrating its superiority to existing Bayesian summarization methods in the presence of outliers.


Unsupervised and Supervised Structure Learning for Protein Contact Prediction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Protein contacts provide key information for the understanding of protein structure and function, and therefore contact prediction from sequences is an important problem. Recent research shows that some correctly predicted long-range contacts could help topology-level structure modeling. Thus, contact prediction and contact-assisted protein folding also proves the importance of this problem. In this thesis, I will briefly introduce the extant related work, then show how to establish the contact prediction through unsupervised graphical models with topology constraints. Further, I will explain how to use the supervised deep learning methods to further boost the accuracy of contact prediction. Finally, I will propose a scoring system called diversity score to measure the novelty of contact predictions, as well as an algorithm that predicts contacts with respect to the new scoring system.


InClass Nets: Independent Classifier Networks for Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Independence Mixture Models and Unsupervised Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new machine-learning-based approach, which we call the Independent Classifier networks (InClass nets) technique, for the nonparameteric estimation of conditional independence mixture models (CIMMs). We approach the estimation of a CIMM as a multi-class classification problem, since dividing the dataset into different categories naturally leads to the estimation of the mixture model. InClass nets consist of multiple independent classifier neural networks (NNs), each of which handles one of the variates of the CIMM. Fitting the CIMM to the data is performed by simultaneously training the individual NNs using suitable cost functions. The ability of NNs to approximate arbitrary functions makes our technique nonparametric. Further leveraging the power of NNs, we allow the conditionally independent variates of the model to be individually high-dimensional, which is the main advantage of our technique over existing non-machine-learning-based approaches. We derive some new results on the nonparametric identifiability of bivariate CIMMs, in the form of a necessary and a (different) sufficient condition for a bivariate CIMM to be identifiable. We provide a public implementation of InClass nets as a Python package called RainDancesVI and validate our InClass nets technique with several worked out examples. Our method also has applications in unsupervised and semi-supervised classification problems.


Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for Health and Wellness applications: a tutorial

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As the name says, these approaches rely on the availability of data to extract knowledge and train algorithms. This is opposed to, e.g., modeling approaches in which physiological, physics-based, mathematical, and other equations form the basis of algorithms, or, rule-based systems in which reasoning processes are obtained by translating domain-experts' knowledge into computer-based rules. Focusing on data-driven systems, the data plays a role in several components during the development and actual usage phases. First, we need data to extract knowledge from, i.e., to develop and train algorithms so that they learn-by-example the properties of the problem at hand and get better at solving the problem by repeatedly providing example data. Second, we need to monitor during the development phase how promising the algorithms are and make choices, e.g., concerning optimisation of parameters or choosing different MLparadigms. Methods that don't perform well at all can be discarded, and ones that seem promising can be further optimised. To assess how promising a specific method is, we need to examine how it performs on data that was not used during training. Finally, to objectively assess how well the final'best' system performs, we need to apply completely new data to it that has not been used at all thusfar during the research and development process. Thus, there are at least three stakeholders that have the interest to get as large part of the data pie as possible.


Predictive Capability Maturity Quantification using Bayesian Network

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In nuclear engineering, modeling and simulations (M&Ss) are widely applied to support risk-informed safety analysis. Since nuclear safety analysis has important implications, a convincing validation process is needed to assess simulation adequacy, i.e., the degree to which M&S tools can adequately represent the system quantities of interest. However, due to data gaps, validation becomes a decision-making process under uncertainties. Expert knowledge and judgments are required to collect, choose, characterize, and integrate evidence toward the final adequacy decision. However, in validation frameworks CSAU: Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (NUREG/CR-5249) and EMDAP: Evaluation Model Development and Assessment Process (RG 1.203), such a decision-making process is largely implicit and obscure. When scenarios are complex, knowledge biases and unreliable judgments can be overlooked, which could increase uncertainty in the simulation adequacy result and the corresponding risks. Therefore, a framework is required to formalize the decision-making process for simulation adequacy in a practical, transparent, and consistent manner. This paper suggests a framework "Predictive Capability Maturity Quantification using Bayesian network (PCMQBN)" as a quantified framework for assessing simulation adequacy based on information collected from validation activities. A case study is prepared for evaluating the adequacy of a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic simulation in predicting the hydrodynamic forces onto static structures during an external flooding scenario. Comparing to the qualitative and implicit adequacy assessment, PCMQBN is able to improve confidence in the simulation adequacy result and to reduce expected loss in the risk-informed safety analysis.


Learning and Reasoning for Robot Dialog and Navigation Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reinforcement learning and probabilistic reasoning algorithms aim at learning from interaction experiences and reasoning with probabilistic contextual knowledge respectively. In this research, we develop algorithms for robot task completions, while looking into the complementary strengths of reinforcement learning and probabilistic reasoning techniques. The robots learn from trial-and-error experiences to augment their declarative knowledge base, and the augmented knowledge can be used for speeding up the learning process in potentially different tasks. We have implemented and evaluated the developed algorithms using mobile robots conducting dialog and navigation tasks. From the results, we see that our robot's performance can be improved by both reasoning with human knowledge and learning from task-completion experience. More interestingly, the robot was able to learn from navigation tasks to improve its dialog strategies.


Exact Recovery of Community Detection in k-Community Gaussian Mixture Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the community detection problem on a Gaussian mixture model, in which vertices are divided into $k\geq 2$ distinct communities. The major difference in our model is that the intensities for Gaussian perturbations are different for different entries in the observation matrix, and we do not assume that every community has the same number of vertices. We explicitly find the threshold for the exact recovery of the maximum likelihood estimation. Applications include the community detection on hypergraphs.


Causal blankets: Theory and algorithmic framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce a novel framework to identify perception-action loops (PALOs) directly from data based on the principles of computational mechanics. Our approach is based on the notion of causal blanket, which captures sensory and active variables as dynamical sufficient statistics -- i.e. as the "differences that make a difference." Furthermore, our theory provides a broadly applicable procedure to construct PALOs that requires neither a steady-state nor Markovian dynamics. Using our theory, we show that every bipartite stochastic process has a causal blanket, but the extent to which this leads to an effective PALO formulation varies depending on the integrated information of the bipartition.


Hierarchical Marketing Mix Models with Sign Constraints

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Marketing mix models (MMMs) are statistical models for measuring the effectiveness of various marketing activities such as promotion, media advertisement, etc. In this research, we propose a comprehensive marketing mix model that captures the hierarchical structure and the carryover, shape and scale effects of certain marketing activities, as well as sign restrictions on certain coefficients that are consistent with common business sense. In contrast to commonly adopted approaches in practice, which estimate parameters in a multi-stage process, the proposed approach estimates all the unknown parameters/coefficients simultaneously using a constrained maximum likelihood approach and solved with the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. We present results on real datasets to illustrate the use of the proposed solution algorithm.