Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this assumption is violated, and using existing algorithms may result in a performance lag. To proactively search for a good future policy, we present a policy gradient algorithm that maximizes a forecast of future performance. This forecast is obtained by fitting a curve to the counter-factual estimates of policy performance over time, without explicitly modeling the underlying non-stationarity. The resulting algorithm amounts to a non-uniform reweighting of past data, and we observe that minimizing performance over some of the data from past episodes can be beneficial when searching for a policy that maximizes future performance. We show that our algorithm, called Prognosticator, is more robust to non-stationarity than two online adaptation techniques, on three simulated problems motivated by real-world applications.

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation in order to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible, but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lockdown becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized and thus compatible with privacy preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable to enhance performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the currently developed mobile applications. Identifying, calling, testing, and if needed quarantining the recent contacts of an individual who has just been tested positive is the standard route for limiting the transmission of a highly contagious virus.

Computer Vision practitioners must thoroughly understand their model's performance, but conditional evaluation is complex and error-prone. In biometric verification, model performance over continuous covariates---real-number attributes of images that affect performance---is particularly challenging to study. We develop a generative model of the match and non-match score distributions over continuous covariates and perform inference with modern Bayesian methods. We use mixture models to capture arbitrary distributions and local basis functions to capture non-linear, multivariate trends. Three experiments demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of our approach. First, we study the relationship between age and face verification performance and find previous methods may overstate performance and confidence. Second, we study preprocessing for CNNs and find a highly non-linear, multivariate surface of model performance. Our method is accurate and data efficient when evaluated against previous synthetic methods. Third, we demonstrate the novel application of our method to pedestrian tracking and calculate variable thresholds and expected performance while controlling for multiple covariates.

Efficient feature selection from high-dimensional datasets is a very important challenge in many data-driven fields of science and engineering. We introduce a statistical mechanics inspired strategy that addresses the problem of sparse feature selection in the context of binary classification by leveraging a computational scheme known as expectation propagation (EP). The algorithm is used in order to train a continuous-weights perceptron learning a classification rule from a set of (possibly partly mislabeled) examples provided by a teacher perceptron with diluted continuous weights. We test the method in the Bayes optimal setting under a variety of conditions and compare it to other state-of-the-art algorithms based on message passing and on expectation maximization approximate inference schemes. Overall, our simulations show that EP is a robust and competitive algorithm in terms of variable selection properties, estimation accuracy and computationally complexity, especially when the student perceptron is trained from correlated patterns that prevent other iterative methods from converging. Furthermore, our numerical tests demonstrate that the algorithm is capable of learning online the unknown values of prior parameters, such as the dilution level of the weights of the teacher perceptron and the fraction of mislabeled examples, quite accurately. This is achieved by means of a simple maximum likelihood strategy that consists in minimizing the free energy associated with the EP algorithm.

Continual learning from streaming data sources becomes more and more popular due to the increasing number of online tools and systems. Dealing with dynamic and everlasting problems poses new challenges for which traditional batch-based offline algorithms turn out to be insufficient in terms of computational time and predictive performance. One of the most crucial limitations is that we cannot assume having access to a finite and complete data set - we always have to be ready for new data that may complement our model. This poses a critical problem of providing labels for potentially unbounded streams. In the real world, we are forced to deal with very strict budget limitations, therefore, we will most likely face the scarcity of annotated instances, which are essential in supervised learning. In our work, we emphasize this problem and propose a novel instance exploitation technique. We show that when: (i) data is characterized by temporary non-stationary concepts, and (ii) there are very few labels spanned across a long time horizon, it is actually better to risk overfitting and adapt models more aggressively by exploiting the only labeled instances we have, instead of sticking to a standard learning mode and suffering from severe underfitting. We present different strategies and configurations for our methods, as well as an ensemble algorithm that attempts to maintain a sweet spot between risky and normal adaptation. Finally, we conduct a complex in-depth comparative analysis of our methods, using state-of-the-art streaming algorithms relevant to the given problem.

In this article, we will look at the difference between generative and discriminative models, how they contrast, and one another. Discriminative machine learning is to recognize the rig output among possible output choices. Given something about the data, and done by learning parameters. Classification is additionally mentioned as discriminative modeling. This is often on the grounds; the model must separate instances of input variables across classes.

That's the question faced by Prakash Shenoy, the Ronald G. Harper Distinguished Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of Kansas School of Business. His answer can be found in the article "An Interval-Valued Utility Theory for Decision Making with Dempster-Shafer Belief Functions," which appears in the September issue of the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. "People assume that you can always attach probabilities to uncertain events," Shenoy said. "But in real life, you never know what the probabilities are. You don't know if it's 50 percent or 60 percent. This is the essence of the theory of belief functions that Arthur Dempster and Glenn Shafer formulated in the 1970s."

Risk specialists are trying to understand risk better and use complex models for risk assessment, while many risks are not yet well understood. The lack of empirical data and complex causal and outcome relationships make it difficult to estimate the degree to which certain risk types are exposed. Traditional risk models are based on classical set theory. In comparison, fuzzy logic models are built on fuzzy set theory and are useful for analyzing risks with insufficient knowledge or inaccurate data. Fuzzy logic systems help to make large-scale risk management frameworks more simple. For risks that do not have an appropriate probability model, a fuzzy logic system can help model the cause and effect relationships, assess the level of risk exposure, rank key risks in a consistent way, and consider available data and experts'opinions. Besides, in fuzzy logic systems, some rules explicitly explain the connection, dependence, and relationships between model factors. This can help identify risk mitigation solutions. Resources can be used to mitigate risks with very high levels of exposure and relatively low hedging costs. Fuzzy set and fuzzy logic models can be used with Bayesian and other types of method recognition and decision models, including artificial neural networks and decision tree models. These developed models have the potential to solve difficult risk assessment problems. This research paper explores areas in which fuzzy logic models can be used to improve risk assessment and risk decision making. We will discuss the methodology, framework, and process of using fuzzy logic systems in risk assessment.

This paper considers the problem of estimating the information leakage of a system in the black-box scenario. It is assumed that the system's internals are unknown to the learner, or anyway too complicated to analyze, and the only available information are pairs of input-output data samples, possibly obtained by submitting queries to the system or provided by a third party. Previous research has mainly focused on counting the frequencies to estimate the input-output conditional probabilities (referred to as frequentist approach), however this method is not accurate when the domain of possible outputs is large. To overcome this difficulty, the estimation of the Bayes error of the ideal classifier was recently investigated using Machine Learning (ML) models and it has been shown to be more accurate thanks to the ability of those models to learn the input-output correspondence. However, the Bayes vulnerability is only suitable to describe one-try attacks. A more general and flexible measure of leakage is the g-vulnerability, which encompasses several different types of adversaries, with different goals and capabilities. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to perform black-box estimation of the g-vulnerability using ML. A feature of our approach is that it does not require to estimate the conditional probabilities, and that it is suitable for a large class of ML algorithms. First, we formally show the learnability for all data distributions. Then, we evaluate the performance via various experiments using k-Nearest Neighbors and Neural Networks. Our results outperform the frequentist approach when the observables domain is large.

The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the application of the method.