Extreme multi-label classification (XMLC) is a learning task of tagging instances with a small subset of relevant labels chosen from an extremely large pool of possible labels. Problems of this scale can be efficiently handled by organizing labels as a tree, like in hierarchical softmax used for multi-class problems. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate probabilistic label trees (PLTs) which can be treated as a generalization of hierarchical softmax for multi-label problems. We first introduce the PLT model and discuss training and inference procedures and their computational costs. Next, we prove the consistency of PLTs for a wide spectrum of performance metrics. To this end, we upperbound their regret by a function of surrogate-loss regrets of node classifiers. Furthermore, we consider a problem of training PLTs in a fully online setting, without any prior knowledge of training instances, their features, or labels. In this case, both node classifiers and the tree structure are trained online. We prove a specific equivalence between the fully online algorithm and an algorithm with a tree structure given in advance. Finally, we discuss several implementations of PLTs and introduce a new one, napkinXC, which we empirically evaluate and compare with state-of-the-art algorithms.

Machine learning can be used to make sense of healthcare data. Probabilistic machine learning models help provide a complete picture of observed data in healthcare. In this review, we examine how probabilistic machine learning can advance healthcare. We consider challenges in the predictive model building pipeline where probabilistic models can be beneficial including calibration and missing data. Beyond predictive models, we also investigate the utility of probabilistic machine learning models in phenotyping, in generative models for clinical use cases, and in reinforcement learning.

The software outlined in this paper, AitiaExplorer, is an exploratory causal analysis tool which uses unsupervised learning for feature selection in order to expedite causal discovery. In this paper the problem space of causality is briefly described and an overview of related research is provided. A problem statement and requirements for the software are outlined. The key requirements in the implementation, the key design decisions and the actual implementation of AitiaExplorer are discussed. Finally, this implementation is evaluated in terms of the problem statement and requirements outlined earlier. It is found that AitiaExplorer meets these requirements and is a useful exploratory causal analysis tool that automatically selects subsets of important features from a dataset and creates causal graph candidates for review based on these features. The software is available at https://github.com/corvideon/aitiaexplorer

Lately there has been a lot of discussion about why deep learning algorithms perform better than we would theoretically suspect. To get insight into this question, it helps to improve our understanding of how learning works. We explore the core problem of generalization and show that long-accepted Occam's razor and parsimony principles are insufficient to ground learning. Instead, we derive and demonstrate a set of relativistic principles that yield clearer insight into the nature and dynamics of learning. We show that concepts of simplicity are fundamentally contingent, that all learning operates relative to an initial guess, and that generalization cannot be measured or strongly inferred, but that it can be expected given enough observation. Using these principles, we reconstruct our understanding in terms of distributed learning systems whose components inherit beliefs and update them. We then apply this perspective to elucidate the nature of some real world inductive processes including deep learning.

The expressive power of Bayesian kernel-based methods has led them to become an important tool across many different facets of artificial intelligence, and useful to a plethora of modern application domains, providing both power and interpretability via uncertainty analysis. This article introduces and discusses two methods which straddle the areas of probabilistic Bayesian schemes and kernel methods for regression: Gaussian Processes and Relevance Vector Machines. Our focus is on developing a common framework with which to view these methods, via intermediate methods a probabilistic version of the well-known kernel ridge regression, and drawing connections among them, via dual formulations, and discussion of their application in the context of major tasks: regression, smoothing, interpolation, and filtering. Overall, we provide understanding of the mathematical concepts behind these models, and we summarize and discuss in depth different interpretations and highlight the relationship to other methods, such as linear kernel smoothers, Kalman filtering and Fourier approximations. Throughout, we provide numerous figures to promote understanding, and we make numerous recommendations to practitioners. Benefits and drawbacks of the different techniques are highlighted. To our knowledge, this is the most in-depth study of its kind to date focused on these two methods, and will be relevant to theoretical understanding and practitioners throughout the domains of data-science, signal processing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in general.

Many systems are naturally modeled as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), combining probabilities and strategic actions. Given a model of a system as an MDP and some logical specification of system behavior, the goal of synthesis is to find a policy that maximizes the probability of achieving this behavior. A popular choice for defining behaviors is Linear Temporal Logic (LTL). Policy synthesis on MDPs for properties specified in LTL has been well studied. LTL, however, is defined over infinite traces, while many properties of interest are inherently finite. Linear Temporal Logic over finite traces (LTLf) has been used to express such properties, but no tools exist to solve policy synthesis for MDP behaviors given finite-trace properties. We present two algorithms for solving this synthesis problem: the first via reduction of LTLf to LTL and the second using native tools for LTLf. We compare the scalability of these two approaches for synthesis and show that the native approach offers better scalability compared to existing automaton generation tools for LTL.

Bayesian nonparametrics based on completely random measures (CRMs) offers a flexible modeling approach when the number of clusters or latent components in a dataset is unknown. However, managing the infinite dimensionality of CRMs often leads to slow computation. Practical inference typically relies on either integrating out the infinite-dimensional parameter or using a finite approximation: a truncated finite approximation (TFA) or an independent finite approximation (IFA). The atom weights of TFAs are constructed sequentially, while the atoms of IFAs are independent, which (1) make them well-suited for parallel and distributed computation and (2) facilitates more convenient inference schemes. While IFAs have been developed in certain special cases in the past, there has not yet been a general template for construction or a systematic comparison to TFAs. We show how to construct IFAs for approximating distributions in a large family of CRMs, encompassing all those typically used in practice. We quantify the approximation error between IFAs and the target nonparametric prior, and prove that, in the worst-case, TFAs provide more component-efficient approximations than IFAs. However, in experiments on image denoising and topic modeling tasks with real data, we find that the error of Bayesian approximation methods overwhelms any finite approximation error, and IFAs perform very similarly to TFAs.

We consider online change detection of high dimensional data streams with sparse changes, where only a subset of data streams can be observed at each sensing time point due to limited sensing capacities. On the one hand, the detection scheme should be able to deal with partially observable data and meanwhile have efficient detection power for sparse changes. On the other, the scheme should be able to adaptively and actively select the most important variables to observe to maximize the detection power. To address these two points, in this paper, we propose a novel detection scheme called CDSSD. In particular, it describes the structure of high dimensional data with sparse changes by smooth-sparse decomposition, whose parameters can be learned via spike-slab variational Bayesian inference. Then the posterior Bayes factor, which incorporates the learned parameters and sparse change information, is formulated as a detection statistic. Finally, by formulating the statistic as the reward of a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem, an adaptive sampling strategy based on Thompson sampling is proposed. The efficacy and applicability of our method in practice are demonstrated with numerical studies and a real case study.

Bayesian inference engines have become established as an important paradigm for inference in arbitrarily large and complex graphical models. Software platforms such as Infer.NET (Minka et al., 2018) and Stan (Carpenter et al., 2017) are instances of such Bayesian inference engines. They deliver approximate Bayesian inference, with varying degrees of inferential accuracy, by calling upon contemporary approaches such as expectation propagation, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and variational approximation. The purpose of this short article is to show that effective and scalable probability density function estimation, or density estimation for short, can be achieved using Bayesian inference engines. We provide easy access for users of the R statistical computing environment (R Core Team, 2018) via a package named densEstBayes (Wand, 2020).

Supply and demand are two fundamental concepts of sellers and customers. Predicting demand accurately is critical for organizations in order to be able to make plans. In this paper, we propose a new approach for demand prediction on an e-commerce web site. The proposed model differs from earlier models in several ways. The business model used in the e-commerce web site, for which the model is implemented, includes many sellers that sell the same product at the same time at different prices where the company operates a market place model. The demand prediction for such a model should consider the price of the same product sold by competing sellers along the features of these sellers. In this study we first applied different regression algorithms for specific set of products of one department of a company that is one of the most popular online e-commerce companies in Turkey. Then we used stacked generalization or also known as stacking ensemble learning to predict demand. Finally, all the approaches are evaluated on a real world data set obtained from the e-commerce company. The experimental results show that some of the machine learning methods do produce almost as good results as the stacked generalization method.