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 Uncertainty


Parsimonious Feature Extraction Methods: Extending Robust Probabilistic Projections with Generalized Skew-t

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The study focuses on extension to the approach of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), as defined in [1], [2] or [3]. PCA and related matrix factorisation methodologies are widely used in data-rich environments for dimensionality reduction, data compression, feature-extraction techniques or data de-noising. The methodologies identify a lower-dimensional linear subspace to represent the data, which captures second-order dominant information contained in high-dimensional data sets. PCA can be viewed as a matrix factorisation problem which aims to learn the lower-dimensional representation of the data, preserving its Euclidean structure. However, in the presence of either a non-Gaussian distribution of the data generating distribution or in the presence of outliers which corrupt the data, the standard PCA methodology provides biased information about the lower-rank representation. In many applications, the stochastic noise or observation errors in the data set are assumed to be, in some sense, "well-behaved"; for instance, additive, light-tailed, symmetric and zero-mean. When non-robust feature extraction methods are naively utilised in the presence of violations of these implicit statistical assumptions, the information contained in the extracted features cannot be relied upon, resulting in misleading inference. Therefore, it is critical to ensure that the feature extraction captures information about correct characteristics of the process generating the data. In the following study, we relax the inherent assumption of "well-behaved" observation noise by developing a class of robust estimators that can withstand violations of such assumptions, which routinely arise in real data sets.


Machine Knowledge: Creation and Curation of Comprehensive Knowledge Bases

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Equipping machines with comprehensive knowledge of the world's entities and their relationships has been a long-standing goal of AI. Over the last decade, large-scale knowledge bases, also known as knowledge graphs, have been automatically constructed from web contents and text sources, and have become a key asset for search engines. This machine knowledge can be harnessed to semantically interpret textual phrases in news, social media and web tables, and contributes to question answering, natural language processing and data analytics. This article surveys fundamental concepts and practical methods for creating and curating large knowledge bases. It covers models and methods for discovering and canonicalizing entities and their semantic types and organizing them into clean taxonomies. On top of this, the article discusses the automatic extraction of entity-centric properties. To support the long-term life-cycle and the quality assurance of machine knowledge, the article presents methods for constructing open schemas and for knowledge curation. Case studies on academic projects and industrial knowledge graphs complement the survey of concepts and methods.


CogniFNN: A Fuzzy Neural Network Framework for Cognitive Word Embedding Evaluation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Word embeddings can reflect the semantic representations, and the embedding qualities can be comprehensively evaluated with human natural reading-related cognitive data sources. In this paper, we proposed the CogniFNN framework, which is the first attempt at using fuzzy neural networks to extract non-linear and non-stationary characteristics for evaluations of English word embeddings against the corresponding cognitive datasets. In our experiment, we used 15 human cognitive datasets across three modalities: EEG, fMRI, and eye-tracking, and selected the mean square error and multiple hypotheses testing as metrics to evaluate our proposed CogniFNN framework. Compared to the recent pioneer framework, our proposed CogniFNN showed smaller prediction errors of both context-independent (GloVe) and context-sensitive (BERT) word embeddings, and achieved higher significant ratios with randomly generated word embeddings. Our findings suggested that the CogniFNN framework could provide a more accurate and comprehensive evaluation of cognitive word embeddings. It will potentially be beneficial to the further word embeddings evaluation on extrinsic natural language processing tasks.


Representation Learning from Limited Educational Data with Crowdsourced Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Representation learning has been proven to play an important role in the unprecedented success of machine learning models in numerous tasks, such as machine translation, face recognition and recommendation. The majority of existing representation learning approaches often require a large number of consistent and noise-free labels. However, due to various reasons such as budget constraints and privacy concerns, labels are very limited in many real-world scenarios. Directly applying standard representation learning approaches on small labeled data sets will easily run into over-fitting problems and lead to sub-optimal solutions. Even worse, in some domains such as education, the limited labels are usually annotated by multiple workers with diverse expertise, which yields noises and inconsistency in such crowdsourcing settings. In this paper, we propose a novel framework which aims to learn effective representations from limited data with crowdsourced labels. Specifically, we design a grouping based deep neural network to learn embeddings from a limited number of training samples and present a Bayesian confidence estimator to capture the inconsistency among crowdsourced labels. Furthermore, to expedite the training process, we develop a hard example selection procedure to adaptively pick up training examples that are misclassified by the model. Extensive experiments conducted on three real-world data sets demonstrate the superiority of our framework on learning representations from limited data with crowdsourced labels, comparing with various state-of-the-art baselines. In addition, we provide a comprehensive analysis on each of the main components of our proposed framework and also introduce the promising results it achieved in our real production to fully understand the proposed framework.


EPEM: Efficient Parameter Estimation for Multiple Class Monotone Missing Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The problem of monotone missing data has been broadly studied during the last two decades and has many applications in different fields such as bioinformatics or statistics. Commonly used imputation techniques require multiple iterations through the data before yielding convergence. Moreover, those approaches may introduce extra noises and biases to the subsequent modeling. In this work, we derive exact formulas and propose a novel algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of a multiple class, monotone missing dataset when all the covariance matrices of all categories are assumed to be equal, namely EPEM. We then illustrate an application of our proposed methods in Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). As the computation is exact, our EPEM algorithm does not require multiple iterations through the data as other imputation approaches, thus promising to handle much less time-consuming than other methods. This effectiveness was validated by empirical results when EPEM reduced the error rates significantly and required a short computation time compared to several imputation-based approaches. We also release all codes and data of our experiments in one GitHub repository to contribute to the research community related to this problem.


Probabilistic Label Trees for Extreme Multi-label Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Extreme multi-label classification (XMLC) is a learning task of tagging instances with a small subset of relevant labels chosen from an extremely large pool of possible labels. Problems of this scale can be efficiently handled by organizing labels as a tree, like in hierarchical softmax used for multi-class problems. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate probabilistic label trees (PLTs) which can be treated as a generalization of hierarchical softmax for multi-label problems. We first introduce the PLT model and discuss training and inference procedures and their computational costs. Next, we prove the consistency of PLTs for a wide spectrum of performance metrics. To this end, we upperbound their regret by a function of surrogate-loss regrets of node classifiers. Furthermore, we consider a problem of training PLTs in a fully online setting, without any prior knowledge of training instances, their features, or labels. In this case, both node classifiers and the tree structure are trained online. We prove a specific equivalence between the fully online algorithm and an algorithm with a tree structure given in advance. Finally, we discuss several implementations of PLTs and introduce a new one, napkinXC, which we empirically evaluate and compare with state-of-the-art algorithms.


Probabilistic Machine Learning for Healthcare

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine learning can be used to make sense of healthcare data. Probabilistic machine learning models help provide a complete picture of observed data in healthcare. In this review, we examine how probabilistic machine learning can advance healthcare. We consider challenges in the predictive model building pipeline where probabilistic models can be beneficial including calibration and missing data. Beyond predictive models, we also investigate the utility of probabilistic machine learning models in phenotyping, in generative models for clinical use cases, and in reinforcement learning.


Using Unsupervised Learning to Help Discover the Causal Graph

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The software outlined in this paper, AitiaExplorer, is an exploratory causal analysis tool which uses unsupervised learning for feature selection in order to expedite causal discovery. In this paper the problem space of causality is briefly described and an overview of related research is provided. A problem statement and requirements for the software are outlined. The key requirements in the implementation, the key design decisions and the actual implementation of AitiaExplorer are discussed. Finally, this implementation is evaluated in terms of the problem statement and requirements outlined earlier. It is found that AitiaExplorer meets these requirements and is a useful exploratory causal analysis tool that automatically selects subsets of important features from a dataset and creates causal graph candidates for review based on these features. The software is available at https://github.com/corvideon/aitiaexplorer


The Relativity of Induction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lately there has been a lot of discussion about why deep learning algorithms perform better than we would theoretically suspect. To get insight into this question, it helps to improve our understanding of how learning works. We explore the core problem of generalization and show that long-accepted Occam's razor and parsimony principles are insufficient to ground learning. Instead, we derive and demonstrate a set of relativistic principles that yield clearer insight into the nature and dynamics of learning. We show that concepts of simplicity are fundamentally contingent, that all learning operates relative to an initial guess, and that generalization cannot be measured or strongly inferred, but that it can be expected given enough observation. Using these principles, we reconstruct our understanding in terms of distributed learning systems whose components inherit beliefs and update them. We then apply this perspective to elucidate the nature of some real world inductive processes including deep learning.


Joint introduction to Gaussian Processes and Relevance Vector Machines with Connections to Kalman filtering and other Kernel Smoothers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The expressive power of Bayesian kernel-based methods has led them to become an important tool across many different facets of artificial intelligence, and useful to a plethora of modern application domains, providing both power and interpretability via uncertainty analysis. This article introduces and discusses two methods which straddle the areas of probabilistic Bayesian schemes and kernel methods for regression: Gaussian Processes and Relevance Vector Machines. Our focus is on developing a common framework with which to view these methods, via intermediate methods a probabilistic version of the well-known kernel ridge regression, and drawing connections among them, via dual formulations, and discussion of their application in the context of major tasks: regression, smoothing, interpolation, and filtering. Overall, we provide understanding of the mathematical concepts behind these models, and we summarize and discuss in depth different interpretations and highlight the relationship to other methods, such as linear kernel smoothers, Kalman filtering and Fourier approximations. Throughout, we provide numerous figures to promote understanding, and we make numerous recommendations to practitioners. Benefits and drawbacks of the different techniques are highlighted. To our knowledge, this is the most in-depth study of its kind to date focused on these two methods, and will be relevant to theoretical understanding and practitioners throughout the domains of data-science, signal processing, machine learning, and artificial intelligence in general.