Uncertainty
Bayesian Restoration of Audio Degraded by Low-Frequency Pulses Modeled via Gaussian Process
de Carvalho, Hugo Tremonte, รvila, Flรกvio Rainho, Biscainho, Luiz Wagner Pereira
A common defect found when reproducing old vinyl and gramophone recordings with mechanical devices are the long pulses with significant low-frequency content caused by the interaction of the arm-needle system with deep scratches or even breakages on the media surface. Previous approaches to their suppression on digital counterparts of the recordings depend on a prior estimation of the pulse location, usually performed via heuristic methods. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian approach capable of jointly estimating the pulse location; interpolating the almost annihilated signal underlying the strong discontinuity that initiates the pulse; and also estimating the long pulse tail by a simple Gaussian Process, allowing its suppression from the corrupted signal. The posterior distribution for the model parameters as well for the pulse is explored via Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. Controlled experiments indicate that the proposed method, while requiring significantly less user intervention, achieves perceptual results similar to those of previous approaches and performs well when dealing with naturally degraded signals.
An Intuitive Tutorial to Gaussian Processes Regression
This introduction aims to provide readers an intuitive understanding of Gaussian processes regression. Gaussian processes regression (GPR) models have been widely used in machine learning applications because their representation flexibility and inherently uncertainty measures over predictions. The paper starts with explaining mathematical basics that Gaussian processes built on including multivariate normal distribution, kernels, non-parametric models, joint and conditional probability. The Gaussian processes regression is then described in an accessible way by balancing showing unnecessary mathematical derivation steps and missing key conclusive results. An illustrative implementation of a standard Gaussian processes regression algorithm is provided. Beyond the standard Gaussian processes regression, existing software packages to implement state-of-the-art Gaussian processes algorithms are reviewed. Lastly, more advanced Gaussian processes regression models are specified. The paper is written in an accessible way, thus undergraduate science and engineering background will find no difficulties in following the content.
Why have a Unified Predictive Uncertainty? Disentangling it using Deep Split Ensembles
Sarawgi, Utkarsh, Zulfikar, Wazeer, Khincha, Rishab, Maes, Pattie
Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in black box Neural Networks (NNs) is critical when deployed in real-world settings such as healthcare. Recent works using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have shown how a unified predictive uncertainty can be modelled for NNs. Decomposing this uncertainty to disentangle the granular sources of heteroscedasticity in data provides rich information about its underlying causes. We propose a conceptually simple non-Bayesian approach, deep split ensemble, to disentangle the predictive uncertainties using a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. The NNs are trained with clusters of input features, for uncertainty estimates per cluster. We evaluate our approach on a series of benchmark regression datasets, while also comparing with unified uncertainty methods. Extensive analyses using dataset shits and empirical rule highlight our inherently well-calibrated models. Our work further demonstrates its applicability in a multi-modal setting using a benchmark Alzheimer's dataset and also shows how deep split ensembles can highlight hidden modality-specific biases. The minimal changes required to NNs and the training procedure, and the high flexibility to group features into clusters makes it readily deployable and useful. The source code is available at https://github.com/wazeerzulfikar/deep-split-ensembles
Stein Variational Gaussian Processes
Pinder, Thomas, Nemeth, Christopher, Leslie, David
We show how to use Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) to carry out inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-Gaussian likelihoods and large data volumes. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is extremely computationally intensive for these situations, but the parametric assumptions required for efficient variational inference (VI) result in incorrect inference when they encounter the multi-modal posterior distributions that are common for such models. SVGD provides a non-parametric alternative to variational inference which is substantially faster than MCMC but unhindered by parametric assumptions. We prove that for GP models with Lipschitz gradients the SVGD algorithm monotonically decreases the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the sampling distribution to the true posterior. Our method is demonstrated on benchmark problems in both regression and classification, and a real air quality example with 11440 spatiotemporal observations, showing substantial performance improvements over MCMC and VI.
Multilevel Gibbs Sampling for Bayesian Regression
Tavernier, Joris, Simm, Jaak, Arany, Adam, Meerbergen, Karl, Moreau, Yves
Bayesian regression remains a simple but effective tool based on Bayesian inference techniques. For large-scale applications, with complicated posterior distributions, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are applied. To improve the well-known computational burden of Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for Bayesian regression, we developed a multilevel Gibbs sampler for Bayesian regression of linear mixed models. The level hierarchy of data matrices is created by clustering the features and/or samples of data matrices. Additionally, the use of correlated samples is investigated for variance reduction to improve the convergence of the Markov Chain. Testing on a diverse set of data sets, speed-up is achieved for almost all of them without significant loss in predictive performance.
Resource-Constrained On-Device Learning by Dynamic Averaging
Heppe, Lukas, Kamp, Michael, Adilova, Linara, Heinrich, Danny, Piatkowski, Nico, Morik, Katharina
The communication between data-generating devices is partially responsible for a growing portion of the world's power consumption. Thus reducing communication is vital, both, from an economical and an ecological perspective. For machine learning, on-device learning avoids sending raw data, which can reduce communication substantially. Furthermore, not centralizing the data protects privacy-sensitive data. However, most learning algorithms require hardware with high computation power and thus high energy consumption. In contrast, ultra-low-power processors, like FPGAs or micro-controllers, allow for energy-efficient learning of local models. Combined with communication-efficient distributed learning strategies, this reduces the overall energy consumption and enables applications that were yet impossible due to limited energy on local devices. The major challenge is then, that the low-power processors typically only have integer processing capabilities. This paper investigates an approach to communication-efficient on-device learning of integer exponential families that can be executed on low-power processors, is privacy-preserving, and effectively minimizes communication. The empirical evaluation shows that the approach can reach a model quality comparable to a centrally learned regular model with an order of magnitude less communication. Comparing the overall energy consumption, this reduces the required energy for solving the machine learning task by a significant amount.
Finite mixture models do not reliably learn the number of components
Cai, Diana, Campbell, Trevor, Broderick, Tamara
Scientists and engineers are often interested in learning the number of subpopulations (or components) present in a data set. A common suggestion is to use a finite mixture model (FMM) with a prior on the number of components. Past work has shown the resulting FMM component-count posterior is consistent; that is, the posterior concentrates on the true generating number of components. But existing results crucially depend on the assumption that the component likelihoods are perfectly specified. In practice, this assumption is unrealistic, and empirical evidence suggests that the FMM posterior on the number of components is sensitive to the likelihood choice. In this paper, we add rigor to data-analysis folk wisdom by proving that under even the slightest model misspecification, the FMM component-count posterior diverges: the posterior probability of any particular finite number of latent components converges to 0 in the limit of infinite data. We illustrate practical consequences of our theory on simulated and real data sets.
A Rigorous Link Between Self-Organizing Maps and Gaussian Mixture Models
Gepperth, Alexander, Pfรผlb, Benedikt
This work presents a mathematical treatment of the relation between Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). We show that energy-based SOM models can be interpreted as performing gradient descent, minimizing an approximation to the GMM log-likelihood that is particularly valid for high data dimensionalities. The SOM-like decrease of the neighborhood radius can be understood as an annealing procedure ensuring that gradient descent does not get stuck in undesirable local minima. This link allows to treat SOMs as generative probabilistic models, giving a formal justification for using SOMs, e.g., to detect outliers, or for sampling.
Bayesian Topological Learning for Classifying the Structure of Biological Networks
Maroulas, Vasileios, Micucci, Cassie Putman, Nasrin, Farzana
Actin cytoskeleton networks generate local topological signatures due to the natural variations in the number, size, and shape of holes of the networks. Persistent homology is a method that explores these topological properties of data and summarizes them as persistence diagrams. In this work, we analyze and classify these filament networks by transforming them into persistence diagrams whose variability is quantified via a Bayesian framework on the space of persistence diagrams. The proposed generalized Bayesian framework adopts an independent and identically distributed cluster point process characterization of persistence diagrams and relies on a substitution likelihood argument. This framework provides the flexibility to estimate the posterior cardinality distribution of points in a persistence diagram and the posterior spatial distribution simultaneously. We present a closed form of the posteriors under the assumption of Gaussian mixtures and binomials for prior intensity and cardinality respectively. Using this posterior calculation, we implement a Bayes factor algorithm to classify the actin filament networks and benchmark it against several state-of-the-art classification methods.
Bandit Change-Point Detection for Real-Time Monitoring High-Dimensional Data Under Sampling Control
In these applications, one often can only observe or use selected components of the data for decisionmaking due to the capacity limitation in data acquisition, transmission, processing, or storage. For instance, the sensor devices might have limited battery powers; thus, one might want to use a subset of sensors per time step over a long period instead of using full sensors simultaneously over a short period. Likewise, while sensing is usually cheap, the communication bandwidth is often limited from remote sensors to the fusion center that makes a global decision. The fusion center might prioritize certain local sensors to send local information for decision making. Also, in many applications such as quality engineering or biosurveillance, one faces the design issue and needs to decide which variables or patients to be measured to detect the defect or disease outbreak more efficiently. This paper aims to investigate how to efficiently real-time monitor high-dimensional streaming data under resource constraints.