Test-time adaptation (TTA) enhances the zero-shot robustness under distribution shifts by leveraging unlabeled test data during inference. Despite notable advances, several challenges still limit its broader applicability. First, most methods rely on backpropagation or iterative optimization, which limits scalability and hinders real-time deployment. Second, they lack explicit modeling of class-conditional feature distributions. This modeling is crucial for producing reliable decision boundaries and calibrated predictions, but it remains underexplored due to the lack of both source data and supervision at test time.

We study Diffusion Schrödinger Bridge (DSB) models in the context of dynamical astrophysical systems, specifically tackling observational inverse prediction tasks within Giant Molecular Clouds (GMCs) for star formation. We introduce the AstroDSB model, a variant of DSB with the pairwise domain assumption tailored for astrophysical dynamics.

Personalized Bayesian federated learning (PBFL) handles non-i.i.d.

Although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable achievements in recent years, they remain vulnerable to adversarial examples that result in harmful responses. Existing attacks typically focus on optimizing adversarial perturbations for a certain multimodal image-prompt pair or fixed training dataset, which often leads to overfitting. Consequently, these perturbations fail to remain malicious once transferred to attack unseen image-prompt pairs, suffering from significant resource costs to cover the diverse multimodal inputs in complicated real-world scenarios. To alleviate this issue, this paper proposes a novel adversarial attack on MLLMs based on distribution approximation theory, which models the potential image-prompt input distribution and adds the same distribution-fitting adversarial perturbation on multimodal input pairs to achieve effective cross-image/prompt transfer attacks. Specifically, we exploit the Laplace approximation to model the Gaussian distribution of the image and prompt inputs for the MLLM, deriving an estimate of the mean and covariance parameters. By sampling from this approximated distribution with Monte Carlo mechanism, we efficiently optimize and fit a single input-agnostic perturbation over diverse image-prompt pairs, yielding strong universality and transferability. Extensive experiments are conducted to verify the strong adversarial capabilities of our proposed attack against prevalent MLLMs spanning a spectrum of images/prompts.

In dueling bandits, an agent explores and exploits choices (i.e., arms) by learning from their stochastic feedback in the form of relative preferences. Prior related studies focused on unbiased feedback. In practice, however, the feedback provided by evaluators can be biased. For example, human users are likely to provide biased evaluation towards large language models due to their heterogeneous background. In this work, we aim to minimize the regret in dueling bandits considering evaluators' biased feedback.

Binary data factorization is common, but real-valued methods ignore discreteness and yield hard-to-interpret factors. Boolean Matrix Factorization (BooMF) instead decomposes a binary matrix into two lower-rank binary matrices via logical AND and OR, expressing the data as a Boolean disjunction of interpretable patterns. In cancer genomics, BooMF can reveal coordinated feature changes that may drive tumor evolution, unlike rotational or additive decompositions. Most existing BooMF methods are heuristic, greedy, sensitive to initialization, prone to local optima, and do not support principled model selection or uncertainty quantification. We introduce Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorization (BBMF), a fully conjugate generative model with sparsity-inducing priors. It enforces Boolean constraints, yields interpretable latent factors with coherent uncertainty quantification, and admits Gibbs sampling with closed-form full conditionals. Because cancer evolution often involves widespread, near-simultaneous chromosome-number changes (e.g., whole-genome duplication followed by instability and selection), Boolean factorizations capture these patterns more naturally than additive models. Applied to arm-level copy-number alteration data in multiple myeloma, where entries indicate presence/absence of chromosomal-arm amplifications, BBMF finds a small set of interpretable bicliques linking patient subsets to recurrently co-altered chromosomal arms, providing a compact, biologically meaningful summary of tumor heterogeneity and demonstrating BBMF's utility for uncovering discrete latent structure in complex binary data.

We develop a framework for conformal prediction in dyadic regression problems under complex missingness mechanisms. At the theoretical level, we develop general technical tools for establishing finite-sample validity of conformal prediction under distributional invariance conditions weaker than exchangeability. A key result handles the case where the sample itself is a random subset of the index set, a setting not covered by existing theory, via a novel bijection argument that constructs an explicit measure-preserving correspondence between events. In addition, we propose conformal prediction procedures for jointly exchangeable arrays, including full conformal, split conformal, a row-column approach exploiting similarities within rows and columns, and a selective conformal procedure achieving mask-conditional validity. For missing elements, we establish asymptotic validity of a weighted conformal procedure under a nonparametric graphon model for the missingness mechanism. We further establish conditional validity results for both continuous and discrete responses; to the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal proof of asymptotic conditional validity for weighted conformal prediction under a missing-not-at-random assumption. The proposed methods are illustrated on synthetic and real network data.

Testing conditional independence is fundamental yet intrinsically difficult: without additional assumptions, Type I error control is impossible in general. The "Model-X'' paradigm addresses this difficulty by assuming exact knowledge of a relevant conditional distribution. While small deviations from this assumption can sometimes be tolerated in classical one-shot testing, existing sequential conditional independence tests typically require the Model-X conditional to be known exactly, making them fragile when it must instead be estimated. We propose a new approach that is substantially more robust to such estimation error. Our method applies testing-by-betting to an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic, together with a normalization scheme and a truncate-and-shift calibration strategy. These modifications greatly reduce Type I error inflation while preserving high power across high-dimensional synthetic benchmarks and real-world fairness tasks, outperforming existing sequential Model-X approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/he-zh/SKCI.

Online learning in non-stationary streams is often formulated as tracking a point estimate, but many applications require predicting the full data-generating distribution. We study online distributional prediction under drift and adversarial corruption. Our approach represents each candidate law through a latent cluster geometry: a variable-size configuration of centers that organizes probability mass and induces a predictive distribution. A Gibbs quasi-posterior over these configurations yields an online predictor by posterior averaging, and the resulting variable-dimensional posterior can be sampled with reversible-jump MCMC. The method therefore avoids specifying a parametric streaming law while retaining a structured latent space for uncertainty, regularization, and comparison. We evaluate performance by cumulative Wasserstein-1 regret against the time-varying true law. The analysis separates two effects: corruption perturbs the loss-based posterior update, whereas drift makes long-horizon posterior memory stale. We address the latter with a restarted variant that temporally localizes the same quasi-Bayesian update. The resulting high-probability bounds decompose into a PAC-Bayesian complexity term, a corruption-sensitive posterior perturbation term, and a dynamic optimal-transport term driven by \(A_T^{\mathrm{OT}}=\sum_{t=2}^T W_2^2(p_{t-1}^*,p_t^*)\). Under bounded support, stable latent geometry, predictive-map regularity, oracle realizability, localized restart windows, sublinear transport action, and sublinear corruption budget, the restarted predictor achieves sublinear cumulative Wasserstein regret. These guarantees require no parametric model for the stream, drift mechanism, or corruption process.

This paper presents a methodology-centered transfer learning framework for fragility adaptation under domain shift, class imbalance, and scarce target labels while preserving engineering interpretability and supporting decision-making under uncertainty. Four transfer learning strategies (instance-based, parameter-based, hierarchical Bayesian, and multi-source) are demonstrated through three complementary case studies: (i) instance-based transfer learning via importance weighting, demonstrated on coastal bridge fragility using Hurricane Katrina observations; (ii) parameter-based transfer learning together with hierarchical Bayesian transfer learning, enabling partial pooling across strata and posterior uncertainty quantification, demonstrated on residential building fragility using Hurricane Ian observations; and (iii) multi-source transfer learning that fuses multiple analytical fragility models with learned source weights and regularized target-domain adaptation, demonstrated on seismic bridge fragility using observations from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake. Across these case studies, direct transfer of source models (i.e. using existing state-of-the-art models) fails under domain shift and severe class imbalance, while targeted adaptation substantially improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes. These findings highlight the need for systematic guidance on diagnostics, strategy selection, and uncertainty reporting when developing and adapting fragility models.