Uncertainty
Understanding Information Processing in Human Brain by Interpreting Machine Learning Models
The thesis explores the role machine learning methods play in creating intuitive computational models of neural processing. Combined with interpretability techniques, machine learning could replace human modeler and shift the focus of human effort to extracting the knowledge from the ready-made models and articulating that knowledge into intuitive descroptions of reality. This perspective makes the case in favor of the larger role that exploratory and data-driven approach to computational neuroscience could play while coexisting alongside the traditional hypothesis-driven approach. We exemplify the proposed approach in the context of the knowledge representation taxonomy with three research projects that employ interpretability techniques on top of machine learning methods at three different levels of neural organization. The first study (Chapter 3) explores feature importance analysis of a random forest decoder trained on intracerebral recordings from 100 human subjects to identify spectrotemporal signatures that characterize local neural activity during the task of visual categorization. The second study (Chapter 4) employs representation similarity analysis to compare the neural responses of the areas along the ventral stream with the activations of the layers of a deep convolutional neural network. The third study (Chapter 5) proposes a method that allows test subjects to visually explore the state representation of their neural signal in real time. This is achieved by using a topology-preserving dimensionality reduction technique that allows to transform the neural data from the multidimensional representation used by the computer into a two-dimensional representation a human can grasp. The approach, the taxonomy, and the examples, present a strong case for the applicability of machine learning methods to automatic knowledge discovery in neuroscience.
Aggregating Dependent Gaussian Experts in Local Approximation
Jalali, Hamed, Kasneci, Gjergji
Distributed Gaussian processes (DGPs) are prominent local approximation methods to scale Gaussian processes (GPs) to large datasets. Instead of a global estimation, they train local experts by dividing the training set into subsets, thus reducing the time complexity. This strategy is based on the conditional independence assumption, which basically means that there is a perfect diversity between the local experts. In practice, however, this assumption is often violated, and the aggregation of experts leads to sub-optimal and inconsistent solutions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for aggregating the Gaussian experts by detecting strong violations of conditional independence. The dependency between experts is determined by using a Gaussian graphical model, which yields the precision matrix. The precision matrix encodes conditional dependencies between experts and is used to detect strongly dependent experts and construct an improved aggregation. Using both synthetic and real datasets, our experimental evaluations illustrate that our new method outperforms other state-of-the-art (SOTA) DGP approaches while being substantially more time-efficient than SOTA approaches, which build on independent experts.
On the Consistency of Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Causal Network Identification
Xie, Xiaotian, Katselis, Dimitrios, Beck, Carolyn L., Srikant, R.
We consider the problem of identifying parameters of a particular class of Markov chains, called Bernoulli Autoregressive (BAR) processes. The structure of any BAR model is encoded by a directed graph. Incoming edges to a node in the graph indicate that the state of the node at a particular time instant is influenced by the states of the corresponding parental nodes in the previous time instant. The associated edge weights determine the corresponding level of influence from each parental node. In the simplest setup, the Bernoulli parameter of a particular node's state variable is a convex combination of the parental node states in the previous time instant and an additional Bernoulli noise random variable. This paper focuses on the problem of edge weight identification using Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation and proves that the ML estimator is strongly consistent for two variants of the BAR model. We additionally derive closed-form estimators for the aforementioned two variants and prove their strong consistency.
End-to-End Variational Bayesian Training of Tensorized Neural Networks with Automatic Rank Determination
Low-rank tensor decomposition is one of the most effective approaches to reduce the memory and computing requirements of large-size neural networks, enabling their efficient deployment on various hardware platforms. While post-training tensor compression can greatly reduce the cost of inference, uncompressed training still consumes excessive hardware resources, run-time and energy. It is highly desirable to directly train a compact low-rank tensorized model from scratch with a low memory and computational cost. However, this is a very challenging task because it is hard to determine a proper tensor rank a priori, which controls the model complexity and compression ratio in the training process. This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for low-rank tensorized training of neural networks. We first develop a flexible Bayesian model that can handle various low-rank tensor formats (e.g., CP, Tucker, tensor train and tensor-train matrix) that compress neural network parameters in training. This model can automatically determine the tensor ranks inside a nonlinear forward model, which is beyond the capability of existing Bayesian tensor methods. We further develop a scalable stochastic variational inference solver to estimate the posterior density of large-scale problems in training. Our work provides the first general-purpose rank-adaptive framework for end-to-end tensorized training. Our numerical results on various neural network architectures show orders-of-magnitude parameter reduction and little accuracy loss (or even better accuracy) in the training process.
On Bayesian sparse canonical correlation analysis via Rayleigh quotient framework
Canonical correlation analysis is a statistical technique -dating back at least to [1] - that is used to maximally correlate multiple datasets for joint analysis. The technique has become a fundamental tool in biomedical research where technological advances have led to a huge number of multi-omic datasets ([2]; [3]; [4]). Over the past two decades, limited sample sizes, growing dimensionality, and the search for meaningful biological interpretations, have led to the development of sparse canonical correlation analysis ([2]), where a sparsity assumption is imposed on the canonical correlation vectors. This work falls under the topic of the Bayesian estimation of sparse canonical corrlation vectors. Model-based approaches to canonical correlation analysis were developed in the mid 2000's (see e.g., [5]), and paved the way for a Bayesian treatment of canonical correlation analysis ([6];[7]) and sparse canonical correlation analysis ([8]). However an serious shortcoming of such a Bayesian treatment is that this approach naturally requires a complete specification of the joint distribution of the data, so as to specify the likelihood function. This requirement is a serious limitation in many applications, where the data generating process is poorly understood, for example, image data.
The Ridgelet Prior: A Covariance Function Approach to Prior Specification for Bayesian Neural Networks
Matsubara, Takuo, Oates, Chris J., Briol, François-Xavier
Bayesian neural networks attempt to combine the strong predictive performance of neural networks with formal quantification of uncertainty associated with the predictive output in the Bayesian framework. However, it remains unclear how to endow the parameters of the network with a prior distribution that is meaningful when lifted into the output space of the network. A possible solution is proposed that enables the user to posit an appropriate covariance function for the task at hand. Our approach constructs a prior distribution for the parameters of the network, called a ridgelet prior, that approximates the posited covariance structure in the output space of the network. The approach is rooted in the ridgelet transform and we establish both finite-sample-size error bounds and the consistency of the approximation of the covariance function in a limit where the number of hidden units is increased. Our experimental assessment is limited to a proof-of-concept, where we demonstrate that the ridgelet prior can out-perform an unstructured prior on regression problems for which an informative covariance function can be a priori provided.
Fast Bayesian Estimation of Spatial Count Data Models
Bansal, Prateek, Krueger, Rico, Graham, Daniel J.
Spatial count data models are used to explain and predict the frequency of phenomena such as traffic accidents in geographically distinct entities such as census tracts or road segments. These models are typically estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods, which, however, are computationally expensive and do not scale well to large datasets. Variational Bayes (VB), a method from machine learning, addresses the shortcomings of MCMC by casting Bayesian estimation as an optimisation problem instead of a simulation problem. Considering all these advantages of VB, a VB method is derived for posterior inference in negative binomial models with unobserved parameter heterogeneity and spatial dependence. P\'olya-Gamma augmentation is used to deal with the non-conjugacy of the negative binomial likelihood and an integrated non-factorised specification of the variational distribution is adopted to capture posterior dependencies. The benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study and an empirical application on estimating youth pedestrian injury counts in census tracts of New York City. The VB approach is around 45 to 50 times faster than MCMC on a regular eight-core processor in a simulation and an empirical study, while offering similar estimation and predictive accuracy. Conditional on the availability of computational resources, the embarrassingly parallel architecture of the proposed VB method can be exploited to further accelerate its estimation by up to 20 times.
Goodness-of-Fit Test of Mismatched Models for Self-Exciting Processes
Wei, Song, Zhu, Shixiang, Zhang, Minghe, Xie, Yao
We develop a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test for generative models of self-exciting processes by making a new connection to this problem with the classical statistical theory of Quasi-maximum-likelihood estimator (QMLE). We present a non-parametric self-normalizing statistic for the GOF test: the Generalized Score (GS) statistics, and explicitly capture the model misspecification when establishing the asymptotic distribution of the GS statistic. Numerical experiments based on simulation and real-data validate our theory and demonstrate the proposed GS test's good performance.
Learnable Graph-regularization for Matrix Decomposition
Low-rank approximation models of data matrices have become important machine learning and data mining tools in many fields including computer vision, text mining, bioinformatics and many others. They allow for embedding high-dimensional data into low-dimensional spaces, which mitigates the effects of noise and uncovers latent relations. In order to make the learned representations inherit the structures in the original data, graph-regularization terms are often added to the loss function. However, the prior graph construction often fails to reflect the true network connectivity and the intrinsic relationships. In addition, many graph-regularized methods fail to take the dual spaces into account. Probabilistic models are often used to model the distribution of the representations, but most of previous methods often assume that the hidden variables are independent and identically distributed for simplicity. To this end, we propose a learnable graph-regularization model for matrix decomposition (LGMD), which builds a bridge between graph-regularized methods and probabilistic matrix decomposition models. LGMD learns two graphical structures (i.e., two precision matrices) in real-time in an iterative manner via sparse precision matrix estimation and is more robust to noise and missing entries. Extensive numerical results and comparison with competing methods demonstrate its effectiveness.
Effective Distributed Representations for Academic Expert Search
Berger, Mark, Zavrel, Jakub, Groth, Paul
Expert search aims to find and rank experts based on a user's query. In academia, retrieving experts is an efficient way to navigate through a large amount of academic knowledge. Here, we study how different distributed representations of academic papers (i.e. embeddings) impact academic expert retrieval. We use the Microsoft Academic Graph dataset and experiment with different configurations of a document-centric voting model for retrieval. In particular, we explore the impact of the use of contextualized embeddings on search performance. We also present results for paper embeddings that incorporate citation information through retrofitting. Additionally, experiments are conducted using different techniques for assigning author weights based on author order. We observe that using contextual embeddings produced by a transformer model trained for sentence similarity tasks produces the most effective paper representations for document-centric expert retrieval. However, retrofitting the paper embeddings and using elaborate author contribution weighting strategies did not improve retrieval performance.