We consider a commonly studied supervised classification of a synthetic dataset whose labels are generated by feeding a one-layer neural network with random iid inputs. We study the generalization performances of standard classifiers in the high-dimensional regime where $\alpha=n/d$ is kept finite in the limit of a high dimension $d$ and number of samples $n$. Our contribution is three-fold: First, we prove a formula for the generalization error achieved by $\ell_2$ regularized classifiers that minimize a convex loss. This formula was first obtained by the heuristic replica method of statistical physics. Secondly, focussing on commonly used loss functions and optimizing the $\ell_2$ regularization strength, we observe that while ridge regression performance is poor, logistic and hinge regression are surprisingly able to approach the Bayes-optimal generalization error extremely closely. As $\alpha \to \infty$ they lead to Bayes-optimal rates, a fact that does not follow from predictions of margin-based generalization error bounds. Third, we design an optimal loss and regularizer that provably leads to Bayes-optimal generalization error.

Statistical values alone cannot bring the whole scenario of crime occurrences in the city of Dhaka. We need a better way to use these statistical values to predict crime occurrences and make the city a safer place to live. Proper decision-making for the future is key in reducing the rate of criminal offenses in an area or a city. If the law enforcement bodies can allocate their resources efficiently for the future, the rate of crime in Dhaka can be brought down to a minimum. In this work, we have made an initiative to provide an effective tool with which law enforcement officials and detectives can predict crime occurrences ahead of time and take better decisions easily and quickly. We have used several Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) to predict the type of crime that is highly likely to occur at a certain place and time.

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related and which are due to the neural network. This means that predictions by neural networks have biases which cannot be trivially distinguished from being due to the true nature of the creation and observation of data or not. In order to attempt to address such issues we discuss Bayesian neural networks: neural networks where the uncertainty due to the network can be characterised. In particular, we present the Bayesian statistical framework which allows us to categorise uncertainty in terms of the ingrained randomness of observing certain data and the uncertainty from our lack of knowledge about how data can be created and observed. In presenting such techniques we show how errors in prediction by neural networks can be obtained in principle, and provide the two favoured methods for characterising these errors. We will also describe how both of these methods have substantial pitfalls when put into practice, highlighting the need for other statistical techniques to truly be able to do inference when using neural networks.

Learning models of the environment from data is often viewed as an essential component to building intelligent reinforcement learning (RL) agents. The common practice is to separate the learning of the model from its use, by constructing a model of the environment's dynamics that correctly predicts the observed state transitions. In this paper we argue that the limited representational resources of model-based RL agents are better used to build models that are directly useful for value-based planning. As our main contribution, we introduce the principle of value equivalence: two models are value equivalent with respect to a set of functions and policies if they yield the same Bellman updates. We propose a formulation of the model learning problem based on the value equivalence principle and analyze how the set of feasible solutions is impacted by the choice of policies and functions. Specifically, we show that, as we augment the set of policies and functions considered, the class of value equivalent models shrinks, until eventually collapsing to a single point corresponding to a model that perfectly describes the environment. In many problems, directly modelling state-to-state transitions may be both difficult and unnecessary. By leveraging the value-equivalence principle one may find simpler models without compromising performance, saving computation and memory. We illustrate the benefits of value-equivalent model learning with experiments comparing it against more traditional counterparts like maximum likelihood estimation. More generally, we argue that the principle of value equivalence underlies a number of recent empirical successes in RL, such as Value Iteration Networks, the Predictron, Value Prediction Networks, TreeQN, and MuZero, and provides a first theoretical underpinning of those results.

Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph(DUCG) is a recently proposed model for diagnoses of complex systems. It performs well for industry system such as nuclear power plants, chemical system and spacecrafts. However, the variable state combination explosion in some cases is still a problem that may result in inefficiency or even disability in DUCG inference. In the situation of clinical diagnoses, when a lot of intermediate causes are unknown while the downstream results are known in a DUCG graph, the combination explosion may appear during the inference computation. Monte Carlo sampling is a typical algorithm to solve this problem. However, we are facing the case that the occurrence rate of the case is very small, e.g. $10^{-20}$, which means a huge number of samplings are needed. This paper proposes a new scheme based on conditional stochastic simulation which obtains the final result from the expectation of the conditional probability in sampling loops instead of counting the sampling frequency, and thus overcomes the problem. As a result, the proposed algorithm requires much less time than the DUCG recursive inference algorithm presented earlier. Moreover, a simple analysis of convergence rate based on a designed example is given to show the advantage of the proposed method. % In addition, supports for logic gate, logic cycles, and parallelization, which exist in DUCG, are also addressed in this paper. The new algorithm reduces the time consumption a lot and performs 3 times faster than old one with 2.7% error ratio in a practical graph for Viral Hepatitis B.

A computational method based on the non-linear Gaussian process (GP), known as deep Gaussian processes (deep GPs) for uncertainty quantification & propagation in modelling of flow through heterogeneous porous media is presented. The method is also used for reducing dimensionality of model output and consequently emulating highly complex relationship between hydrogeological properties and reduced order fluid velocity field in a tractable manner. Deep GPs are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of GPs with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers that are very efficient models for deep learning and modelling of high-dimensional complex systems by tackling the complexity through several hidden layers connected with non-linear mappings. According to this approach, the hydrogeological data is modelled as the output of a multivariate GP whose inputs are governed by another GP such that each single layer is either a standard GP or the Gaussian process latent variable model. A variational approximation framework is used so that the posterior distribution of the model outputs associated to given inputs can be analytically approximated. In contrast to the other dimensionality reduction, methods that do not provide any information about the dimensionality of each hidden layer, the proposed method automatically selects the dimensionality of each hidden layer and it can be used to propagate uncertainty obtained in each layer across the hierarchy. Using this, dimensionality of the full input space consists of both geometrical parameters of modelling domain and stochastic hydrogeological parameters can be simultaneously reduced without the need for any simplifications generally being assumed for stochastic modelling of subsurface flow problems. It allows estimation of the flow statistics with greatly reduced computational efforts compared to other stochastic approaches such as Monte Carlo method.

With the increasing penetration of high-frequency sensors across a number of biological and physical systems, the abundance of the resulting observations offers opportunities for higher statistical accuracy of down-stream estimates, but their frequency results in a plethora of computational problems in data assimilation tasks. The high-frequency of these observations has been traditionally dealt with by using data modification strategies such as accumulation, averaging, and sampling. However, these data modification strategies will reduce the quality of the estimates, which may be untenable for many systems. Therefore, to ensure high-quality estimates, we adapt stochastic approximation methods to address the unique challenges of high-frequency observations in data assimilation. As a result, we are able to produce estimates that leverage all of the observations in a manner that avoids the aforementioned computational problems and preserves the statistical accuracy of the estimates.

We address the problem of building theoretical models that help elucidate the function of the visual brain at computational/algorithmic and structural/mechanistic levels. We seek to understand how the receptive fields and topographic maps found in visual cortical areas relate to underlying computational desiderata. We view the development of sensory systems from the popular perspective of probability density estimation; this is motivated by the notion that an effective internal representational scheme is likely to reflect the statistical structure of the environment in which an organism lives. We apply biologically based constraints on elements of the model. The thesis begins by surveying the relevant literature from the fields of neurobiology, theoretical neuroscience, and machine learning. After this review we present our main theoretical and algorithmic developments: we propose a class of probabilistic models, which we refer to as "energy-based models", and show equivalences between this framework and various other types of probabilistic model such as Markov random fields and factor graphs; we also develop and discuss approximate algorithms for performing maximum likelihood learning and inference in our energy based models. The rest of the thesis is then concerned with exploring specific instantiations of such models. By performing constrained optimisation of model parameters to maximise the likelihood of appropriate, naturalistic datasets we are able to qualitatively reproduce many of the receptive field and map properties found in vivo, whilst simultaneously learning about statistical regularities in the data.

While uncertainty estimation is a well-studied topic in deep learning, most such work focuses on marginal uncertainty estimates, i.e. the predictive mean and variance at individual input locations. But it is often more useful to estimate predictive correlations between the function values at different input locations. In this paper, we consider the problem of benchmarking how accurately Bayesian models can estimate predictive correlations. We first consider a downstream task which depends on posterior predictive correlations: transductive active learning (TAL). We find that TAL makes better use of models' uncertainty estimates than ordinary active learning, and recommend this as a benchmark for evaluating Bayesian models. Since TAL is too expensive and indirect to guide development of algorithms, we introduce two metrics which more directly evaluate the predictive correlations and which can be computed efficiently: meta-correlations (i.e. the correlations between the models correlation estimates and the true values), and cross-normalized likelihoods (XLL). We validate these metrics by demonstrating their consistency with TAL performance and obtain insights about the relative performance of current Bayesian neural net and Gaussian process models.

One of the main barriers to the broader adoption of algorithmic fairness in machine learning is the trade-off between fairness and performance of ML models: many practitioners are unwilling to sacrifice the performance of their ML model for fairness. In this paper, we show that this trade-off may not be necessary. If the algorithmic biases in an ML model are due to sampling biases in the training data, then enforcing algorithmic fairness may improve the performance of the ML model on unbiased test data. We study conditions under which enforcing algorithmic fairness helps practitioners learn the Bayes decision rule for (unbiased) test data from biased training data. We also demonstrate the practical implications of our theoretical results in real-world ML tasks.