The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. We are interested in an identification of those features, that are most relevant for the observed drift. We distinguish between drift inducing features, for which the observed feature drift cannot be explained by any other feature, and faithfully drifting features, which correlate with the present drift of other features. This notion gives rise to minimal subsets of the feature space, which are able to characterize the observed drift as a whole. We relate this problem to the problems of feature selection and feature relevance learning, which allows us to derive a detection algorithm. We demonstrate its usefulness on different benchmarks.

Variational Bayesian phylogenetic inference (VBPI) provides a promising general variational framework for efficient estimation of phylogenetic posteriors. However, the current diagonal Lognormal branch length approximation would significantly restrict the quality of the approximating distributions. In this paper, we propose a new type of VBPI, VBPI-NF, as a first step to empower phylogenetic posterior estimation with deep learning techniques. By handling the non-Euclidean branch length space of phylogenetic models with carefully designed permutation equivariant transformations, VBPI-NF uses normalizing flows to provide a rich family of flexible branch length distributions that generalize across different tree topologies. We show that VBPI-NF significantly improves upon the vanilla VBPI on a benchmark of challenging real data Bayesian phylogenetic inference problems. Further investigation also reveals that the structured parameterization in those permutation equivariant transformations can provide additional amortization benefit.

Equation discovery, also known as symbolic regression, is a type of automated modeling that discovers scientific laws, expressed in the form of equations, from observed data and expert knowledge. Deterministic grammars, such as context-free grammars, have been used to limit the search spaces in equation discovery by providing hard constraints that specify which equations to consider and which not. In this paper, we propose the use of probabilistic context-free grammars in the context of equation discovery. Such grammars encode soft constraints on the space of equations, specifying a prior probability distribution on the space of possible equations. We show that probabilistic grammars can be used to elegantly and flexibly formulate the parsimony principle, that favors simpler equations, through probabilities attached to the rules in the grammars. We demonstrate that the use of probabilistic, rather than deterministic grammars, in the context of a Monte-Carlo algorithm for grammar-based equation discovery, leads to more efficient equation discovery. Finally, by specifying prior probability distributions over equation spaces, the foundations are laid for Bayesian approaches to equation discovery.

Robust tracking of a target in a clutter environment is an important and challenging task. In recent years, the nearest neighbor methods and probabilistic data association filters were proposed. However, the performance of these methods diminishes as the number of measurements increases. In this paper, we propose a robust generative approach to effectively model multiple sensor measurements for tracking a moving target in an environment with high clutter. We assume a time-dependent number of measurements that include sensor observations with unknown origin, some of which may only contain clutter with no additional information. We robustly and accurately estimate the trajectory of the moving target in a high clutter environment with an unknown number of clutters by employing Bayesian nonparametric modeling. In particular, we employ a class of joint Bayesian nonparametric models to construct the joint prior distribution of target and clutter measurements such that the conditional distributions follow a Dirichlet process. The marginalized Dirichlet process prior of the target measurements is then used in a Bayesian tracker to estimate the dynamically-varying target state. We show through experiments that the tracking performance and effectiveness of our proposed framework are increased by suppressing high clutter measurements. In addition, we show that our proposed method outperforms existing methods such as nearest neighbor and probability data association filters.

To effectively optimize Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy systems for regression problems, a mini-batch gradient descent with regularization, DropRule, and AdaBound (MBGD-RDA) algorithm was recently proposed. This paper further proposes FCM-RDpA, which improves MBGD-RDA by replacing the grid partition approach in rule initialization by fuzzy c-means clustering, and AdaBound by Powerball AdaBelief, which integrates recently proposed Powerball gradient and AdaBelief to further expedite and stabilize parameter optimization. Extensive experiments on 22 regression datasets with various sizes and dimensionalities validated the superiority of FCM-RDpA over MBGD-RDA, especially when the feature dimensionality is higher. We also propose an additional approach, FCM-RDpAx, that further improves FCM-RDpA by using augmented features in both the antecedents and consequents of the rules.

The paper proposes a new hybrid Bayesian network learning algorithm, termed Forward Early Dropping Hill Climbing (FEDHC), designed to work with either continuous or categorical data. FEDHC consists of a skeleton identification phase (learning the conditional associations among the variables) followed by the scoring phase that assigns the causal directions. Specifically for the case of continuous data, a robust to outliers version of FEDHC is also proposed. The paper manifests that the only implementation of MMHC in the statistical software \textit{R}, is prohibitively expensive and a new implementation is offered. The FEDHC is tested via Monte Carlo simulations that distinctly show it is computationally efficient, and produces Bayesian networks of similar to, or of higher accuracy than MMHC and PCHC. FEDHC yields more accurate Bayesian networks than PCHC with continuous data but less accurate with categorical data. Finally, an application of FEDHC, PCHC and MMHC algorithms to real data, from the field of economics, is demonstrated using the statistical software \textit{R}.

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active learning methods for reliability analysis have emerged as a promising way for reducing this computational cost. The learning phase of these methods consists in building a Gaussian process surrogate model of the performance function and using the uncertainty structure of the Gaussian process to enrich iteratively this surrogate model. For that purpose a learning criterion has to be defined. Then, the estimation of the probability of failure is typically obtained by a classification of a population evaluated on the final surrogate model. Hence, the estimator of the probability of failure holds two different uncertainty sources related to the surrogate model approximation and to the sampling based integration technique. In this paper, we propose a methodology to quantify the sensitivity of the probability of failure estimator to both uncertainty sources. This analysis also enables to control the whole error associated to the failure probability estimate and thus provides an accuracy criterion on the estimation. Thus, an active learning approach integrating this analysis to reduce the main source of error and stopping when the global variability is sufficiently low is introduced. The approach is proposed for both a Monte Carlo based method as well as an importance sampling based method, seeking to improve the estimation of rare event probabilities. Performance of the proposed strategy is then assessed on several examples.

A statistical analysis of the observed perturbations in the density of stellar streams can in principle set stringent contraints on the mass function of dark matter subhaloes, which in turn can be used to constrain the mass of the dark matter particle. However, the likelihood of a stellar density with respect to the stream and subhaloes parameters involves solving an intractable inverse problem which rests on the integration of all possible forward realisations implicitly defined by the simulation model. In order to infer the subhalo abundance, previous analyses have relied on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) together with domain-motivated but handcrafted summary statistics. Here, we introduce a likelihood-free Bayesian inference pipeline based on Amortised Approximate Likelihood Ratios (AALR), which automatically learns a mapping between the data and the simulator parameters and obviates the need to handcraft a possibly insufficient summary statistic. We apply the method to the simplified case where stellar streams are only perturbed by dark matter subhaloes, thus neglecting baryonic substructures, and describe several diagnostics that demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method and the statistical quality of the learned estimator.

Predicting future states or actions of a given system remains a fundamental, yet unsolved challenge of intelligence, especially in the scope of complex and non-deterministic scenarios, such as modeling behavior of humans. Existing approaches provide results under strong assumptions concerning unimodality of future states, or, at best, assuming specific probability distributions that often poorly fit to real-life conditions. In this work we introduce a robust and flexible probabilistic framework that allows to model future predictions with virtually no constrains regarding the modality or underlying probability distribution. To achieve this goal, we leverage a hypernetwork architecture and train a continuous normalizing flow model. The resulting method dubbed RegFlow achieves state-of-the-art results on several benchmark datasets, outperforming competing approaches by a significant margin.

In reinforcement learning, robust policies for high-stakes decision-making problems with limited data are usually computed by optimizing the percentile criterion, which minimizes the probability of a catastrophic failure. Unfortunately, such policies are typically overly conservative as the percentile criterion is non-convex, difficult to optimize, and ignores the mean performance. To overcome these shortcomings, we study the soft-robust criterion, which uses risk measures to balance the mean and percentile criteria better. In this paper, we establish the soft-robust criterion's fundamental properties, show that it is NP-hard to optimize, and propose and analyze two algorithms to optimize it approximately. Our theoretical analyses and empirical evaluations demonstrate that our algorithms compute much less conservative solutions than the existing approximate methods for optimizing the percentile-criterion.